Determination of single nucleotide polymorphisms useful to predict response for glatiramer acetate

ABSTRACT

This invention provides a method for treating a human subject afflicted with multiple sclerosis or a single clinical attack consistent with multiple sclerosis with a pharmaceutical composition comprising glatiramer acetate and a pharmaceutically acceptable carrier, comprising the steps of 1) identifying whether the human subject is a predicted responder to glatiramer acetate by determining the genotype of the subject at one or more single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) selected from the group consisting of the SNPs in Group 1; and 2) administering the pharmaceutical composition comprising glatiramer acetate and a pharmaceutically acceptable carrier to the subject only if the subject is identified as a predicted responder to glatiramer acetate.

This application is a divisional of U.S. Ser. No. 13/648,135, filed Oct. 9, 2012, now U.S. Pat. No. 8,815,511, which claims the benefit of U.S. Provisional Application No. 61/636,560, filed Apr. 20, 2012 and 61/545,282, filed Oct. 10, 2011, the contents of each of which are hereby incorporated by reference into this application.

Throughout this application various publications are referenced by their full citations in parentheses. The disclosures of these publications in their entireties are hereby incorporated by reference into this application in order to more fully describe the state of the art to which this invention pertains.

BACKGROUND OF THE INVENTION Multiple Sclerosis

Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a chronic, debilitating autoimmune disease of the central nervous system (CNS) with either relapsing-remitting (RR) or progressive course leading to neurologic deterioration and disability. At time of initial diagnosis, RRMS is the most common form of the disease (1) which is characterized by unpredictable acute episodes of neurological dysfunction (relapses), followed by variable recovery and periods of clinical stability. The vast majority of RRMS patients eventually develop secondary progressive (SP) disease with or without superimposed relapses. Around 15% of patients develop a sustained deterioration of their neurological function from the beginning; this form is called primary progressive (PP) MS. Patients who have experienced a single clinical event (Clinically Isolated Syndrome or “CIS”) and who show lesion dissemination on subsequent magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scans according to McDonald's criteria, are also considered as having relapsing MS. (2)

With a prevalence that varies considerably around the world, MS is the most common cause of chronic neurological disability in young adults.(3,4) Anderson et al. estimated that there were about 350,000 physician-diagnosed patients with MS in the United States in 1990 (approx. 140 per 100,000 population).(5) It is estimated that about 2.5 million individuals are affected worldwide.(6) In general, there has been a trend toward an increasing prevalence and incidence of MS worldwide, but the reasons for this trend are not fully understood.(5)

Current therapeutic approaches consist of i) symptomatic treatment ii) treatment of acute relapses with corticosteroids and iii) treatment aimed to modify the course of the disease. Currently treatment aimed to modify the course of the disease. Currently approved therapies target the inflammatory processes of the disease. Most of then are considered to act as immunomodulators but their mechanisms of action have not been completely elucidated. Immunosuppressants or cytotoxic agents are also used in some patients after failure of conventional therapies. Several medications have been approved and clinically ascertained as efficacious for the treatment of RR-MS; including BETASERON®, AVONEX® and REBIF®, which are derivatives of the cytokine interferon beta (IFNB), whose mechanism of action in MS is generally attributed to its immunomodulatory effects, antagonizing pro-inflammatory reactions and inducing suppressor cells.(7) Other approved drugs for the treatment of MS include Mitoxantrone and Natalizumab.

Glatiramer Acetate

Glatiramer acetate (GA) is the active substance in Copaxone®, a marketed product indicated for reduction of the frequency of relapses in patients with RRMS. Its effectiveness in reducing relapse rate and disability accumulation in RR-MS is comparable to that of other available immunomodulating treatments.(8, 9, 10) Glatiramer acetate consists of the acetate salts of synthetic polypeptides containing four naturally occurring amino acids: L-glutamic acid, L-alanine, L-tyrosine and L-lysine. The average molecular weight of glatiramer acetate is between 5,000 and 9,000 Daltons. At a daily standard dose of 20 mg, GA is generally well tolerated, however response to the drug is variable. In various clinical trials, GA reduced relapse rates and progression of disability in patients with RR-MS. The therapeutic effect of GA is supported by the results of magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) findings from various clinical centers (11), however there are no validated predictive biomarkers of response to GA treatment.

A possible initial mode of action of GA is associated with binding to MHC molecules and consequent competition with various myelin antigens for their presentation to T cells.(12) A further aspect of its mode of action is the potent induction of T helper 2 (Th2) type cells that presumably can migrate to the brain and lead to in situ bystander suppression.(13) It has been shown that GA treatment in MS results in the induction of GA-specific T cells with predominant Th2 phenotype both in response to GA and cross-reactive myelin antigens.(13, 14) Furthermore, the ability of GA-spec infiltrating cells to express anti-inflammatory cytokines such as IL-10 and transforming growth factor-beta (TGF-β) together with brain-derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF) seem to correlate with the therapeutic activity of GA in EAE.(15, 16, 17)

Clinical experience with GA consists of information obtained from completed and ongoing clinical trials and from post-marketing experience. The clinical program includes three double-blind, placebo-controlled studies in RRMS subjects treated with GA 20 mg/day.(18, 19, 20) A significant reduction in the number of relapses, compared with placebo, was seen. In the largest controlled study, the relapse rate was reduced by 32% from 1.98 under placebo to 1.34 under GA 20 mg. GA 20 mg has also demonstrated beneficial effects over placebo on MRI parameters relevant to RRMS. A significant effect in median cumulative number of Gd-enhancing lesions over 9 months of treatment (11 lesions in the 20 mg group compared to 17 lesions under placebo) was demonstrated.

The clinical program with GA also includes one double-blind study in chronic-progressive MS subjects, (21) one double-blind placebo-controlled study in primary progressive patients, (22) one double-blind placebo-controlled study in CIS patients(23) and numerous open-label and compassionate use studies, mostly in RRMS. The clinical use of GA has been extensively reviewed and published in the current literature (24, 25, 26, 27).

U.S. Pat. No. 7,855,176 discloses administering glatiramer acetate to patients afflicted with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS) by subcutaneous injection of 0.5 ml of an aqueous pharmaceutical solution which contains in solution 20 mg glatiramer acetate and 20 mg mannitol (34).

U.S. Patent Application Publication No. US 2011-0046065 A1 discloses administering glatiramer acetate to patients suffering from relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis by three subcutaneous injections of a therapeutically effective dose of glatiramer acetate over a period of seven days with at least one day between every subcutaneous injection (35).

Pharmacogenomics

Pharmacogenomics is the methodology which associates genetic variability with physiological responses to drug. Pharmacogenetics is a subset of pharmacogenomics and is defined as “the study of variations in DNA sequence as related to drug response” (ICH E15; www.fda.gov/downloads/RegulatoryInformation/Guidances/ucm129296.pdf. Pharmacogenetics focuses on genetic polymorphism in genes related to drug metabolism, drug mechanism of action, disease type, and side effects. Pharmacogenetics is the cornerstone of Personalized Medicine which allows the development of more individualized drug therapies to obtain more effective and safe treatment.

Pharmacogenetics has become a core component of many drug development programs, being used to explain variability in drug response among subjects in clinical trials, to address unexpected emerging clinical issues, such as adverse events, to determine eligibility for a clinical trial (pre-screening) to optimize trial yield, to develop drug-linked diagnostic tests to identify patients who are more likely or less likely to benefit from treatment or who may be at risk of adverse events, to provide information in drug labels to guide physician treatment decisions, to better understand the mechanism of action or metabolism of new and existing drugs, and to provide better understanding of disease mechanisms.

Generally, Pharmacogenetics analyses are performed in either of two methodology approaches: Candidate genes research technique, and Genome Wide Association Study (GWAS). Candidate genes research technique is based on the detection of polymorphism in candidate genes pre-selected using the knowledge on the disease, the drug mode of action, toxicology or metabolism of drug. The Genome Wide Association Study (GWAS) enables the detection of more than 1 M (one million) polymorphisms across the genome. This approach is used when related genes are unknown. DNA arrays used for GWAS can be also analyzed per gene as in candidate gene approach.

Pharmacogenetic Studies

Various pharmacogenetic studies were done in MS patients. For example, a Genome-Wide Association study by Byun et al. (36) focused on extreme clinical phenotypes in order to maximize the ability to detect genetic differences between responders and non-responders to interferon-beta. A multianalytical approach detected significant associations between several SNPs and treatment response. Responders and nonresponders had significantly different genotype frequencies for SNPs located in many genes, including glypican 5, collagen type XXV α1, hyaluronan proteoglycan link protein, calpastatin, and neuronal PAS domain protein 3. Other studies used pharmacogenetic analyses in order to characterize the genomic profile and gene expression profile of IFN responders and non-responders.

Other pharmacogenetic studies analyzed the genetic background associated with response to Glatiramer Acetate. For examples, Fusco C et al (37) assessed a possible relationship between HLA alleles and response to GA (N=83 RRMS). DRB1*1501 allele frequency was increased in MS patients compared to healthy controls (10.8% vs 2.7%; p=0.001). In DRB1*1501 carriers the response rate was 81.8% compared to 39.4% in non-carriers of DRB1*1501 and to 50% in the whole study population. Grossman et al (38) genotyped HLA-DRB1*1501 and 61 SNPs within a total of 27 other candidate genes, on DNA from two clinical trial cohorts. The study revealed no association between HLA-DRB1*1501 and response to GA. The results of the study are disclosed in the international application published as WO2006/116602 (39).

Pharmacogenetics is the cornerstone of personalized medicine which allows the development of more individualized drug therapies to obtain more effective and safe treatment. Multiple Sclerosis is a complex disease with clinical heterogeneity. In patients afflicted with multiple sclerosis or a single clinical attack consistent with multiple sclerosis, the ability to determine the likelihood of treatment success would be an important tool improving the therapeutic management of the patients. As the therapeutic options for MS and CIS increase, the importance of being able to determine who will respond favorably to therapy and specifically to GA, has become of increasing significance.

SUMMARY OF THE INVENTION

This invention provides a method for treating a human subject afflicted with multiple sclerosis or a single clinical attack consistent with multiple sclerosis with a pharmaceutical composition comprising glatiramer acetate and a pharmaceutically acceptable carrier, comprising the steps of:

-   -   i. determining a genotype of the subject at one or more single         nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) selected from the group         consisting of: rs1007328, rs10083547, rs10136012, rs10214633,         rs10277267, rs1040194, rs1041897, rs10853605, rs10931091,         rs10935015, rs10935016, rs10935019, rs10950359, rs10950371,         rs10988087, rs11009827, rs11009835, rs11081859, rs11599624,         rs11617134, rs11618546, rs11694344, rs11709339, rs11719825,         rs11761457, rs11907046, rs12055694, rs12256889, rs1229542,         rs1229553, rs1229555, rs1229558, rs1229562, rs1229563,         rs1229564, rs1229568, rs12340584, rs1234567, rs1234947,         rs1237625, rs12488259, rs12494606, rs12496278, rs12524041,         rs12529764, rs12532459, rs12540494, rs12593600, rs12633010,         rs12637073, rs12639443, rs1264423, rs1282540, rs1282546,         rs12968586, rs1299325, rs13021482, rs13042992, rs1320648,         rs13238613, rs13245980, rs1415557, rs1538123, rs1573706,         rs1591661, rs1611185, rs1683691, rs16999008, rs17007730,         rs17087180, rs17104665, rs17104742, rs17134651, rs17575455,         rs17588454, rs17666347, rs17771939, rs17807327, rs17807445,         rs1886308, rs1892974, rs1941973, rs2033471, rs2088713, rs214526,         rs2155262, rs2177073, rs2187495, rs2277431, rs2305623,         rs2374730, rs2461319, rs2487889, rs2487896, rs2508806,         rs2511064, rs2521643, rs2521644, rs2530121, rs2530123,         rs2685484, rs2722396, rs2722398, rs28861531, rs2895215,         rs2937395, rs3135391, rs35831078, rs3742228, rs401618,         rs4148871, rs4255033, rs4281882, rs4289164, rs4306478,         rs4343256, rs4344916, rs4369324, rs4435429, rs4445746,         rs4466940, rs4468448, rs4483642, rs4565951, rs4578835,         rs4634524, rs4799760, rs4809955, rs4811492, rs496486, rs552994,         rs6015147, rs6025923, rs6025927, rs6091820, rs6097782,         rs6097790, rs6097793, rs6097797, rs6097801, rs6123749,         rs6543934, rs6558102, rs656975, rs657302, rs6584894, rs660075,         rs6713772, rs6909321, rs6971202, rs702355, rs7080507, rs7086707,         rs7093143, rs7178587, rs7180867, rs7232734, rs7238006,         rs7244801, rs7317000, rs751370, rs752979, rs7619350, rs7633210,         rs7714122, rs7789703, rs7803164, rs7806265, rs7916897,         rs7955917, rs7963693, rs8099595, rs8118441, rs844602, rs844608,         rs844610, rs844612, rs844626, rs860722, rs873216, rs884266,         rs894857, rs913882, rs9315048, rs9332420, rs933863, rs933864,         rs9378319, rs9378684, rs9392358, rs9405541, rs9405546, rs947603,         rs948029, rs948032, rs949298, rs9508834, rs9944913, rs9952995,         and rs998051 (hereinafter Group 1),     -   ii. identifying the subject as a predicted responder to         glatiramer acetate if the genotype is         -   AA at rs10214633, rs10277267, rs10935015, rs10935019,             rs10988087, rs11081859, rs11694344, rs12256889, rs12340584,             rs12494606, rs1415557, rs17007730, rs17087180, rs17104665,             rs17104742, rs17588454, rs17807327, rs1892974, rs2088713,             rs214526, rs2374730, rs4255033, rs4306478, rs4343256,             rs4344916, rs4435429, rs4578835, rs4809955, rs496486,             rs6015147, rs6097790, rs6584894, rs6713772, rs6909321,             rs702355, rs7086707, rs7180867, rs7317000, rs844608,             rs844610, rs933863, rs9392358, rs948029, or rs9508834             (hereinafter Group 2),         -   AT at rs12524041 or rs7806265,         -   AG at rs10277267, rs10950359, rs11599624, rs13245980,             rs1415557, rs2521643, rs4255033, rs6584894, rs6909321,             rs702355, or rs844626,         -   AC at rs12256889, rs1229542, rs214526, rs6097793, rs7086707,             rs7180867, rs844608, or rs844610,         -   TT at rs1007328, rs10931091, rs11617134, rs11709339,             rs11719825, rs11761457, rs1229553, rs1234567, rs1234947,             rs12532459, rs12593600, rs1264423, rs13042992, rs1320648,             rs1538123, rs1591661, rs17134651, rs17666347, rs17771939,             rs2461319, rs2508806, rs2722396, rs2722398, rs2895215,             rs401618, rs4369324, rs4483642, rs4565951, rs4811492,             rs552994, rs6025923, rs6025927, rs6097797, rs657302,             rs7232734, rs751370, rs7633210, rs7714122, rs7803164,             rs7806265, rs7916897, rs8118441, rs844612, rs9378319, or             rs9952995 (hereinafter Group 3),         -   GT at rs12532459, rs2722398, rs4369324, or rs7093143,         -   CT at rs10950371, rs11761457, rs1229562, rs12529764,             rs13021482, rs13238613, rs1538123, rs1591561, rs1611185,             rs17807445, rs1941973, rs2461319, rs2685484, rs2895215,             rs4634524, rs4799760, rs6097797, rs7080507, rs7238006,             rs7789703, rs7803164, rs844612, or rs947603,         -   GG at rs10083547, rs10136012, rs10950359, rs11599624,             rs12055694, rs1229558, rs1237625, rs12496278, rs12540494,             rs12633010, rs12637073, rs1282540, rs1282546, rs12968586,             rs1299325, rs13245980, rs16999008, rs17104665, rs17104742,             rs2033471, rs2155262, rs2487889, rs2487896, rs2511064,             rs2521643, rs2530121, rs2530123, rs28861531, rs3135391,             rs4148871, rs4289164, rs4445746, rs6097801, rs6543934,             rs6558102, rs656975, rs6971202, rs7093143, rs7244801,             rs752979, rs7619350, rs7955917, rs844626, rs873216,             rs894857, rs9315048, rs9332420, rs933864, rs948032,             rs949298, or rs998051 (hereinafter Group 4),         -   CG at rs11618546 or rs860722, or         -   CC at rs1041897, rs10853605, rs10935016, rs10950371,             rs11009827, rs11009835, rs11618546, rs11907046, rs1229542,             rs1229555, rs1229562, rs1229563, rs1229564, rs1229568,             rs12488259, rs12639443, rs13021482, rs13238613, rs1573706,             rs1683691, rs17575455, rs17807445, rs2177073, rs2187495,             rs2277431, rs2521644, rs2685484, rs2937395, rs4281882,             rs4466940, rs4468448, rs4634524, rs4799760, rs6091820,             rs6097782, rs6097793, rs6123749, rs660075, rs7080507,             rs7789703, rs7963693, rs8099595, rs844602, rs860722,             rs884266, rs913882, rs9378684, rs9405541, rs9405546,             rs947603, or rs9944913 (hereinafter Group 5); and     -   iii. administering the pharmaceutical composition comprising         glatiramer acetate and a pharmaceutically acceptable carrier to         the subject only if the subject is identified as a predicted         responder to glatiramer acetate.

The invention also provides a method of identifying a human subject afflicted with multiple sclerosis or a single clinical attack consistent with multiple sclerosis as a predicted responder or as a predicted non-responder to glatiramer acetate, the method comprising determining the genotype of the subject at one or more single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) selected from the group consisting of the SNPs in Group 1,

wherein the subject is identified as a predicted responder to glatiramer acetate if the genotype is

-   -   AA at one of the SNPs in Group 2,     -   AT at rs12524041 or rs7806265,     -   AG at rs10277267, rs10950359, rs11599624, rs13245980, rs1415557,         rs2521643, rs4255033, rs6584894, rs6909321, rs702355, or         rs844626,     -   AC at rs12256889, rs1229542, rs214526, rs6097793, rs7086707,         rs7180867, rs844608, or rs844610,     -   TT at one of the SNPs in Group 3,     -   GT at rs12532459, rs2722398, rs4369324, or rs7093143,     -   CT at rs10950371, rs11761457, rs1229562, rs12529764, rs13021482,         rs13238613, rs1538123, rs1591661, rs1611185, rs17807445,         rs1941973, rs2461319, rs2685484, rs2895215, rs4634524,         rs4799760, rs6097797, rs7080507, rs7238006, rs7789703,         rs7803164, rs844612, or rs947603,     -   GG at one of the SNPs in Group 4,     -   CG at rs11618546 or rs860722, or     -   CC one of the SNPs in Group 5; and     -   wherein the subject is identified as a predicted non-responder         to glatiramer acetate if the genotype is     -   AA at rs1040194, rs10935016, rs10950359, rs11009827, rs11599624,         rs12055694, rs1229542, rs1229558, rs1237625, rs12488259,         rs12540494, rs12637073, rs1282540, rs1282546, rs12968586,         rs13245980, rs16999008, rs17575455, rs2177073, rs2511064,         rs2521643, rs4281882, rs4289164, rs4445746, rs4811492,         rs6097793, rs6097801, rs6558102, rs7244801, rs7619350,         rs7806265, rs7955917, rs844626, rs873216, rs894857, rs9332420,         or rs948032 (hereinafter Group 6),     -   AG at rs1040194, rs10935015, rs10935019, rs10988087, rs11081859,         rs12055694, rs1229558, rs12340584, rs1237625, rs12494606,         rs12540494, rs12637073, rs1282540, rs1282546, rs12968586,         rs16999008, rs17007730, rs17087180, rs17104665, rs17104742,         rs17588454, rs2374730, rs2487889, rs2487896, rs2511064,         rs3135391, rs3742228, rs4148871, rs4343256, rs4445746,         rs4809955, rs6097801, rs6713772, rs7244801, rs7619350,         rs7955917, rs894857, rs933863, rs9392358, or rs9508834,     -   AC at rs10214633, rs10935016, rs11009827, rs12488259, rs2088713,         rs2177073, rs4306478, rs496486, rs6097790, or rs7317000,     -   TT at rs10136012, rs1041897, rs10853605, rs10950371, rs11009835,         rs11907046, rs1229555, rs1229562, rs1229563, rs1229564,         rs1229568, rs12639443, rs13238613, rs1573706, rs1683691,         rs1892974, rs2187495, rs2277431, rs2521644, rs2530121,         rs2530123, rs2685484, rs2937395, rs35831078, rs4466940,         rs4468448, rs4634524, rs6091820, rs6097782, rs6543934, rs660075,         rs7789703, rs8099595, rs884266, rs913882, rs9378684, rs9405541,         rs9405546, rs947603, rs948029, or rs9944913 (hereinafter Group         7),     -   GT at rs11719825, rs13042992, rs1886308, rs2305623, or rs998051,     -   CT at rs1041897, rs10931091, rs11009835, rs11617134, rs11709339,         rs1229553, rs1229555, rs1229563, rs1229564, rs1229568,         rs1234567, rs1234947, rs12593600, rs12639443, rs1320648,         rs1573706, rs1683691, rs17134651, rs17666347, rs2187495,         rs2277431, rs2508806, rs2937395, rs35831078, rs4466940,         rs4468448, rs4483642, rs4565951, rs552994, rs6091820, rs6097782,         rs657302, rs660075, rs7232734, rs7714122, rs8099595, rs9378319,         rs9378684, rs9405541, rs9405546, rs9944913, or rs9952995,     -   GG at rs10277267, rs10935015, rs10935019, rs10988087,         rs11081859, rs11618546, rs11719825, rs12340584, rs12494606,         rs12532459, rs13042992, rs17007730, rs17087180, rs17588454,         rs1886308, rs2305623, rs2722398, rs3742228, rs4255033,         rs4343256, rs4369324, rs4435429, rs4578835, rs4809955,         rs6123749, rs6584894, rs6713772, rs7916897, rs7963693,         rs9392358, or rs9508834 (hereinafter Group 8),     -   CG at rs10083547, rs12496278, rs1299325, rs2155262, rs28861531,         rs656975, rs7963693, or rs933864, or     -   CC at rs1007328, rs10083547, rs10214633, rs10931091, rs11617134,         rs11694344, rs11709339, rs11761457, rs12256889, rs1229553,         rs1234567, rs1234947, rs12496278, rs12593600, rs1299325,         rs1320648, rs1538123, rs1591661, rs1611185, rs17134651,         rs17666347, rs17771939, rs17807327, rs1941973, rs214526,         rs2461319, rs2508806, rs2722398, rs28861531, rs2895215,         rs4306478, rs4344916, rs496486, rs552994, rs6015147, rs6025923,         rs6025927, rs6097790, rs6097797, rs656975, rs657302, rs7178587,         rs7232734, rs7238006, rs7317000, rs751370, rs7714122, rs7803164,         rs844608, rs844610, rs844612, rs9378319, or rs9952995         (hereinafter Group 9);     -   and thereby identifying the subject as a predicted responder or         as a predicted non-responder to glatiramer acetate.

The invention also provides a method for treating a human subject afflicted with multiple sclerosis or a single clinical attack consistent with multiple sclerosis comprising the steps of:

-   (i) administering to the human subject a therapeutic amount of a     pharmaceutical composition comprising glatiramer acetate and a     pharmaceutically acceptable carrier; -   (ii) identifying whether the human subject is a predicted responder     to glatiramer acetate by determining the genotype of the subject at     one or more single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) selected from the     group consisting of the SNPs in Group 1,     -   wherein the subject is identified as a predicted responder to         glatiramer acetate if the genotype is     -   AA at one of the SNPs in Group 2,         -   AT at rs12524041 or rs7806265,     -   AG at rs10277267, rs10950359, rs11599624, rs13245980, rs1415557,         rs2521643, rs4255033, rs6584894, rs6909321, rs702355, or         rs844626,     -   AC at rs12256889, rs1229542, rs214526, rs6097793, rs7086707,         rs7180867, rs844608, or rs844610,     -   TT one of the SNPs in Group 3,     -   GT at rs12532459, rs2722398, rs4369324, or rs7093143,     -   CT at rs10950371, rs11761457, rs1229562, rs12529764, rs13021482,         rs13238613, rs1538123, rs1591661, rs1611185, rs17807445,         rs1941973, rs2461319, rs2685484, rs2895215, rs4634524,         rs4799760, rs6097797, rs7080507, rs7238006, rs7789703,         rs7803164, rs844612, or rs947603,     -   GG at one of the SNPs in Group 4,         -   CG at rs11618546 or rs860722, or     -   CC at one of the SNPs in Group 5; and -   (iii) continuing administration of the pharmaceutical composition if     the human subject is identified as a predicted responder to     glatiramer acetate, or modifying the administration of the     pharmaceutical composition to the human subject if the human subject     is not identified as a predicted responder to glatiramer acetate.

The invention also provides a kit for identifying a human subject afflicted with multiple sclerosis or a single clinical attack consistent with multiple sclerosis as a predicted responder or as a predicted non-responder to glatiramer acetate, the kit comprising

-   -   (i) at least one probe specific for a SNP selected from the         group consisting of the SNPs in Group 1.

The invention also provides a kit for identifying a human subject afflicted with multiple sclerosis or a single clinical attack consistent with multiple sclerosis as a predicted responder or as a predicted non-responder to glatiramer acetate, the kit comprising at least one pair of PCR primers designed to amplify a DNA segment which includes a SNP selected from the group consisting of the SNPs in Group 1.

The invention also provides a PCR amplification kit comprising

-   -   (i) at least one pair of PCR primers designed to amplify a DNA         segment which includes a SNP selected from the group consisting         of the SNPs in Group 1, and     -   (ii) instructions for use of the PCR primers to amplify the         segment of DNA.

The invention also provides a kit for identifying a human subject afflicted with multiple sclerosis or a single clinical attack consistent with multiple sclerosis as a predicted responder or as a predicted non-responder to glatiramer acetate, the kit comprising a reagent for performing a method selected from the group consisting of restriction fragment length polymorphism (RFLP) analysis, sequencing, single strand conformation polymorphism analysis (SSCP), chemical cleavage of mismatch (CCM), gene chip and denaturing high performance liquid chromatography (DHPLC) for determining the identity of at least one SNP selected from the group consisting of The SNPs in Group 1.

The invention also provides a kit for identifying a human subject afflicted with multiple sclerosis or a single clinical attack consistent with multiple sclerosis as a predicted responder or as a predicted non-responder to glatiramer acetate, the kit comprising reagents for TaqMan Open Array assay designed for determining the identity of at least one SNP selected from the group consisting of The SNPs in Group 1.

The invention also provides a probe for identifying the genotype of a SNP selected from the group consisting of the SNPs in Group 1.

BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

FIG. 1. Merging of the two mostly enriched networks for broad phenotype definition (organized by cellular compartment). Genes with the light grey symbols are from the GWAS findings, while the others with “empty” symbols are their pathways specific members, and have not been identified by any GWAS.

FIG. 2. Merging of the two mostly enriched networks for narrow phenotype definition (organized by cellular compartments). Genes with the light grey symbols are from the GWAS findings, while the others with “empty” symbols are their pathways' specific members, and have not been identified by any GWAS.

FIG. 3. Merging two networks for narrow phenotype definition (organized by cellular compartments). Genes with the light grey symbols are from the GWAS findings, while the others with “empty” symbols are their pathways' specific members, and have not been identified by any GWAS.

DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE INVENTION

This invention provides a method for treating a human subject afflicted with multiple sclerosis or a single clinical attack consistent with multiple sclerosis with a pharmaceutical composition comprising glatiramer acetate and a pharmaceutically acceptable carrier, comprising the steps of:

-   -   i. determining a genotype of the subject at one or more single         nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) selected from the group         consisting of: the SNPs in Group 1,     -   ii. identifying the subject as a predicted responder to         glatiramer acetate if the genotype is         -   AA at one of the SNPs in Group 2,         -   AT at rs12524041 or rs7806265,         -   AG at rs10277267, rs10950359, rs11599624, rs13245980,             rs1415557, rs2521643, rs4255033, rs6584894, rs6909321,             rs702355, or rs844626,         -   AC at rs12256889, rs1229542, rs214526, rs6097793, rs7086707,             rs7180867, rs844608, or rs844610,         -   TT at one of the SNPs in Group 3,         -   GT at rs12532459, rs2722398, rs4369324, or rs7093143,         -   CT at rs10950371, rs11761457, rs1229562, rs12529764,             rs13021482, rs13238613, rs1538123, rs1591661, rs1611185,             rs17807445, rs1941973, rs2461319, rs2685484, rs2895215,             rs4634524, rs4799760, rs6097797, rs7080507, rs7238006,             rs7789703, rs7803164, rs844612, or rs947603,         -   GG at one of the SNPs in Group 4,         -   CG at rs11618546 or rs860722, or         -   CC at one of the SNPs in Group 5; and     -   iii. administering the pharmaceutical composition comprising         glatiramer acetate and a pharmaceutically acceptable carrier to         the subject only if the subject is identified as a predicted         responder to glatiramer acetate.

In some embodiments, administering the pharmaceutical composition comprising glatiramer acetate and a pharmaceutically acceptable carrier comprises administering to the human subject three subcutaneous injections of the pharmaceutical composition over a period of seven days with at least one day between every subcutaneous injection.

In some embodiments, the pharmaceutical composition is a unit dose of a 1 ml aqueous solution comprising 40 mg of glatiramer acetate.

In some embodiments, the pharmaceutical composition is a unit dose of a 1 ml aqueous solution comprising 20 mg of glatiramer acetate.

In some embodiments, the pharmaceutical composition is a unit dose of a 0.5 ml aqueous solution comprising 20 mg of glatiramer acetate.

The invention also provides a method of identifying a human subject afflicted with multiple sclerosis or a single clinical attack consistent with multiple sclerosis as a predicted responder or as a predicted non-responder to glatiramer acetate, the method comprising determining the genotype of the subject at one or more single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) selected from the group consisting of the SNPs in Group 1,

wherein the subject is identified as a predicted responder to glatiramer acetate if the genotype is

-   -   AA at one of the SNPs in Group 2,     -   AT at rs12524041 or rs7806265,     -   AG at rs10277267, rs10950359, rs11599624, rs13245980, rs1415557,         rs2521643, rs4255033, rs6584894, rs6909321, rs702355, or         rs844626,     -   AC at rs12256889, rs1229542, rs214526, rs6097793, rs7086707,         rs7180867, rs844608, or rs844610,     -   TT at one of the SNPs in Group 3,     -   GT at rs12532459, rs2722398, rs4369324, or rs7093143,     -   CT at rs10950371, rs11761457, rs1229562, rs12529764, rs13021482,         rs13238613, rs1538123, rs1591661, rs1611185, rs17807445,         rs1941973, rs2461319, rs2685484, rs2895215, rs4634524,         rs4799760, rs6097797, rs7080507, rs7238006, rs7789703,         rs7803164, rs844612, or rs947603,     -   GG at one of the SNPs in Group 4,     -   CG at rs11618546 or rs860722, or     -   CC at one of the SNPs in Group 5; and         wherein the subject is identified as a predicted non-responder         to glatiramer acetate if the genotype is     -   AA at one of the SNPs in Group 6,     -   AG at rs1040194, rs10935015, rs10935019, rs10988087, rs11081859,         rs12055694, rs1229558, rs12340584, rs1237625, rs12494606,         rs12540494, rs12637073, rs1282540, rs1282546, rs12968586,         rs16999008, rs17007730, rs17087180, rs17104665, rs17104742,         rs17588454, rs2374730, rs2487889, rs2487896, rs2511064,         rs3135391, rs3742228, rs4148871, rs4343256, rs4445746,         rs4809955, rs6097801, rs6713772, rs7244801, rs7619350,         rs7955917, rs894857, rs933863, rs9392358, or rs9508834,     -   AC at rs10214633, rs10935016, rs11009827, rs12488259, rs2088713,         rs2177073, rs4306478, rs496486, rs6097790, or rs7317000,     -   TT at one of the SNPs in Group 7,     -   GT at rs11719825, rs13042992, rs1886308, rs2305623, or rs998051,     -   CT at rs1041897, rs10931091, rs11009835, rs11617134, rs11709339,         rs1229553, rs1229555, rs1229563, rs1229564, rs1229568,         rs1234567, rs1234947, rs12593600, rs12639443, rs1320648,         rs1573706, rs1683691, rs17134651, rs17666347, rs2187495,         rs2277431, rs2508806, rs2937395, rs35831078, rs4466940,         rs4468448, rs4483642, rs4565951, rs552994, rs6091820, rs6097782,         rs657302, rs560075, rs7232734, rs7714122, rs8099595, rs9378319,         rs9378684, rs9405541, rs9405546, rs9944913, or rs9952995,     -   GG at one of the SNPs in Group 8,     -   CG at rs10083547, rs12496278, rs1299325, rs2155262, rs28861531,         rs656975, rs7963693, or rs933864, or     -   CC at one of the SNPs in Group 9;     -   and thereby identifying the subject as a predicted responder or         as a predicted non-responder to glatiramer acetate.

The invention also provides a method for treating a human subject afflicted with multiple sclerosis or a single clinical attack consistent with multiple sclerosis comprising the steps of:

-   -   (i) administering to the human subject a therapeutic amount of a         pharmaceutical composition comprising glatiramer acetate and a         pharmaceutically acceptable carrier;     -   (ii) identifying whether the human subject is a predicted         responder to glatiramer acetate by determining the genotype of         the subject at one or more single nucleotide polymorphisms         (SNPs) selected from the group consisting of the SNPs in Group         1,         -   wherein the subject is identified as a predicted responder             to glatiramer acetate if the genotype is         -   AA at one of the SNPs in Group 2,         -   AT at rs12524041 or rs7806265,         -   AG at rs10277267, rs10950359, rs11599624, rs13245980,             rs1415557, rs2521643, rs4255033, rs6584894, rs6909321,             rs702355, or rs844626,         -   AC at rs12256889, rs1229542, rs214526, rs6097793, rs7086707,             rs7180867, rs844608, or rs844610,         -   TT at one of the SNPs in Group 3,         -   GT at rs12532459, rs2722398, rs4369324, or rs7093143,         -   CT at rs10950371, rs11761457, rs1229562, rs12529764,             rs13021482, rs13238613, rs1538123, rs1591661, rs1611185,             rs17807445, rs1941973, rs2461319, rs2685484, rs2895215,             rs4634524, rs4799760, rs6097797, rs7080507, rs7238006,             rs7789703, rs7803164, rs844612, or rs947603,         -   GG at one of the SNPs in Group 4,         -   CG at rs11618546 or rs860722, or         -   CC at one of the SNPs in Group 5; and     -   (iii) continuing administration of the pharmaceutical         composition if the human subject is identified as a predicted         responder to glatiramer acetate, or modifying the administration         of the pharmaceutical composition to the human subject if the         human subject is not identified as a predicted responder to         glatiramer acetate.

In some embodiments, administering to the human subject a therapeutic amount of a pharmaceutical composition comprising glatiramer acetate and a pharmaceutically acceptable carrier comprises administering to the human subject three subcutaneous injections of the pharmaceutical composition over a period of seven days with at least one day between every subcutaneous injection.

In some embodiments, the pharmaceutical composition is a unit dose of a 1 ml aqueous solution comprising 40 mg of glatiramer acetate.

In some embodiments, the pharmaceutical composition is a unit dose of a 1 ml aqueous solution comprising 20 mg of glatiramer acetate.

In some embodiments, the pharmaceutical composition is a unit dose of a 0.5 ml aqueous solution comprising 20 mg of glatiramer acetate.

In some embodiments, if the human subject is identified as a predicted responder to glatiramer acetate, the human subject thereafter administered the pharmaceutical composition comprising glatiramer acetate and a pharmaceutically acceptable carrier as monotherapy.

In some embodiments, if the human subject is identified as a predicted responder to glatiramer acetate, the human subject is thereafter administered the pharmaceutical composition comprising glatiramer acetate and a pharmaceutically acceptable carrier in combination with at least one other multiple sclerosis drug.

In some embodiments, the genotype determined at one or more single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) selected from the group consisting of rs947603, rs1007328, rs1573706, rs2177073, rs2487896, rs2511064, rs2521644, rs3135391, rs4148871, rs4343256, rs4344916, rs4369324, rs4445746, rs6097801, rs9508834, rs9944913, rs10853605, rs10931091, rs10950359, rs10988087, rs11599624, rs11617134, rs12256889, rs12639443, rs13042992, rs13238613, rs17087180, rs17575455, rs17771939 and rs17807327.

In some embodiments, the genotype is determined at one or more single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) selected from the group consisting of rs9508834, rs17807327, rs4344916, rs12639443, rs17087180 and rs17771939.

In some embodiments, the genotype is determined at one or more single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) selected from the group consisting of rs4344916, rs12639443, rs17087180 and rs17771939.

In some embodiments, the genotype is determined at SNPs rs4344916, rs12639443, rs17087180 and rs17771939. In other embodiments the genotype is further determined at SNPs rs9508834 or rs17807327. In other embodiments the genotype is further determined at SNPs rs9508834 and rs17807327.

In some embodiments, the method comprises determining the genotype of the subject at 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14 or more of said SNPs.

In some embodiments, the method comprises determining the genotype of the subject at 4, 6, 10, 11, 12 or 13 of said SNPs.

In some embodiments, the method comprises determining the genotype of the subject at 6 or 8 of said SNPs.

In some embodiments, the method comprises determining the genotype of the subject at 6 SNPs.

In some embodiments, the genotype is determined at SNPs rs2521644, rs12256889, rs214526, rs17771939, rs496486, and rs949298.

In some embodiments, a score is assigned to each genotype of each SNP, for the purpose of determining if the human subject is a predicted responder to glatiramer acetate, wherein the scores are approximately as shown in tables 7a-f.

In some embodiments, the genotype is determined at SNPs rs2521644, rs12256889, rs214526, rs17771939, rs496486, and rs2511064.

In some embodiments, a score is assigned to each genotype of each SNP, for the purpose of determining if the human subject is a predicted responder to glatiramer acetate, wherein the scores are approximately as shown in tables 9a-f.

In some embodiments, a relative weight is assigned to each SNP, for the purpose of determining if the human subject is a predicted responder to glatiramer acetate, wherein the relative weight is approximately as shown in table 10.

In some embodiments, the genotype is determined at SNPs rs12256889, rs17771939, rs2511064, and rs2521644.

In some embodiments, a score is assigned to each genotype of each SNP, for the purpose of determining it the human subject is a predicted responder to glatiramer acetate, wherein the scores are approximately as shown in tables 9a-f.

In some embodiments, a relative weight is assigned to each SNP, for the purpose of determining if the human subject is a predicted responder to glatiramer acetate, wherein the relative weight is approximately as shown in table 11.

In some embodiments, the genotype is determined at SNPs rs11599624, rs12639443, rs13042992, rs13238613, rs17087180, rs17771939, rs17807327, rs2487896, rs3135391, rs4148871, rs4343256, rs4344916, and rs9508834.

In some embodiments, the genotype is determined at SNPs rs12256889, rs12639443, rs13238613, rs1573706, rs17087180, rs17771939, rs17807327, rs2487896, rs4343256, rs4344916, rs4369324, rs4445746, and rs9944913.

In some embodiments, the genotype is determined at SNPs rs10988087, rs12639443, rs13042992, rs13238613, rs1573706, rs17087180, rs17771939, rs17807327, rs4148871, rs4344916, rs6097801, and rs9508834.

In some embodiments, the genotype is determined at SNPs rs10988087, rs12256889, rs12639443, rs17087180, rs17771939, rs2177073, rs2521644, rs4344916, rs4369324, rs6097801, rs9508834, and rs9944913.

In some embodiments, the genotype is determined at SNPs rs10988087, rs11617134, rs12639443, rs13042992, rs17087180, rs17771939, rs17807327, rs2487896, rs4148871, rs4344916, rs4445746, rs6097801, and rs9508834.

In some embodiments, the genotype is determined at SNPs rs10988087, rs11617134, rs12639443, rs13042992, rs17087180, rs17771939, rs17807327, rs2487896, rs2521644, rs4148871, rs4344916, rs4445746, and rs6097801.

In some embodiments, the genotype is determined at SNPs rs10988087, rs12256889, rs12639443, rs17087180, rs17771939, rs17807327, rs2487896, rs4148871, rs4344916, rs6097801, and rs9508834.

In some embodiments, the genotype is determined at SNPs rs1007328, rs11617134, rs12639443, rs13238613, rs1573706, rs17087180, rs17771939, rs17807327, rs4343256, rs4344916, rs9508834, and rs9944913.

In some embodiments, the genotype is determined at SNPs rs12639443, rs17087180, rs17771939, rs17807327, rs2487896, rs4148871, rs4343256, rs4344916, rs4369324, rs4445746, rs6097801, rs9508834, and rs9944913.

In some embodiments, the genotype is determined at SNPs rs11617134, rs12639443, rs17087180, rs17771939, rs17807327, rs2487896, rs3135391, rs4148871, rs4344916, rs4369324, rs6097801, rs9508834, and rs9944913.

In some embodiments, the genotype is determined at SNPs rs10988087, rs12639443, rs13238613, rs17087180, rs17771939, rs2487896, rs4148871, rs4343256, rs4344916, and rs9508834.

In some embodiments, the genotype is determined at SNPs rs11617134, rs12256889, rs12639443, rs13042992, rs17087180, rs17771939, rs17807327, rs2177073, rs2487896, rs4343256, rs4344916, rs6097801, and rs9508834.

In some embodiments, the genotype is determined at SNPs rs10950359, rs11617134, rs12639443, rs17087180, rs17771939, rs2487896, rs2511064, rs3135391, rs4148871, rs4343256, rs4344916, rs9508834, and rs9944913.

In some embodiments, the genotype is determined at SNPs rs12256889, rs12639443, rs13042992, rs17087180, rs17771939, rs17807327, rs2487896, rs2521644, rs4344916, and rs6097801.

In some embodiments, the genotype is determined at SNPs rs10950359, rs10988087, rs11599624, rs12256889, rs12639443, rs13042992, rs17087180, rs17771939, rs17807327, rs2521644, rs3135391, rs4344916, and rs9508834.

In some embodiments, the genotype is determined at SNPs rs1007328, rs10950359, rs12256889, rs12639443, rs13042992, rs1573706, rs17087180, rs17771939, rs17807327, rs4343256, rs4344916, rs947603, and rs9508834.

In some embodiments, the genotype is determined at SNPs rs11599624, rs12256889, rs12639443, rs1573706, rs17087180, rs17771939, rs17807327, rs2177073, rs2487896, rs4344916, rs6097801, rs9508834, and rs9944913.

In some embodiments, the method further comprises the measurement of at least one clinical variable which is indicative of response or non-response to glatiramer acetate therapy.

In some embodiments, the at least one clinical variable is selected from age of the subject and T1 brain lesion volume.

In some embodiments, the method further comprises measuring the value of a biomarker in the blood of the human subject.

In some embodiments, the biomarker is selected from the group consisting of IL-10 concentration, IL-17 concentration, IL-18 concentration, TNF-α concentration, brain-derived neurotrophic factor concentration, caspase-1 concentration, IL-10/IL-18 ratio, IL-10/IL-17 ratio, IL-2 concentration and IFN-γ concentration, or a combination thereof.

In some embodiments, the genotype is determined from a nucleic acid-containing sample that has been obtained from the subject.

In some embodiments, the genotype is determined using an array.

In some embodiments, the array is selected from the group consisting of a gene array, a gene chip, a DNA array, a DNA microarray, a TAqMan Open Array and a bead array.

In some embodiments, the array is a TaqMan Open Array.

In some embodiments, determining the genotype comprises using a method selected from the group consisting of restriction fragment length polymorphism (RFLP) analysis, sequencing, single strand conformation polymorphism analysis (SSCP), chemical cleavage of mismatch (CCM), denaturing high performance liquid chromatography (DHPLC), Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR) and an array, or a combination thereof.

In some embodiments, the genotype is determined using at least one pair of PCR primers and at least one probe.

In some embodiments, the genotype is determined by a method selected from the group consisting of restriction fragment length polymorphism (RFLP) analysis, sequencing, single strand conformation polymorphism analysis (SSCP), chemical cleavage of mismatch (CCM), gene chip, and denaturing high performance liquid chromatography (DHPLC).

In some embodiments, determining the genotype of the subject at said one or more SNP comprises:

-   -   (i) obtaining DNA from a sample that has been obtained from the         subject;     -   (ii) optionally amplifying the DNA; and     -   (iii) contacting the DNA or the amplified DNA with an array         comprising a plurality of probes suitable for determining the         identity of the one or more SNPs.

In some embodiments, determining the genotype of the subject at said one or more SNPs comprises:

-   -   (i) obtaining DNA from a sample that has been obtained from the         subject;     -   (ii) optionally amplifying the DNA; and     -   (iii) subjecting the DNA or the amplified DNA to a method         selected from the group consisting of restriction fragment         length polymorphism (RFLP) analysis, sequencing, single strand         conformation polymorphism analysis (SSCP), chemical cleavage of         mismatch (CCM), gene chip, denaturing high performance liquid         chromatography (DHPLC) and an array, or a combination thereof         for determining the identity the one or more SNPs.

In some embodiments, the array comprises a plurality of probes suitable for determining the identity of the one or more SNPs.

In some embodiments, the human subject is a naive patient.

In some embodiments, the human subject has been previously administered glatiramer acetate.

In some embodiments, the human subject has been previously administered a multiple sclerosis drug other than glatiramer acetate.

In some embodiments, the genotype of the subject at said one or more SNPs is obtained indirectly by determining the genotype of the subject at a SNP that is in linkage disequilibrium with said one or more SNPs.

The invention also provides a kit for identifying a human subject afflicted with multiple sclerosis or a single clinical attack consistent with multiple sclerosis as a predicted responder or as a predicted non-responder to glatiramer acetate, the kit comprising at least one probe specific for a SNP selected from the group consisting of the SNPs in Group 1.

The invention also provides a kit for identifying a human subject afflicted with multiple sclerosis or a single clinical attack consistent with multiple sclerosis as a predicted responder or as a predicted non-responder to glatiramer acetate, the kit comprising at least one pair of PCR primers designed to amplify a DNA segment which includes a SNP selected from the group consisting of the SNPs in Group 1.

The invention also provides a PCR amplification kit comprising

-   -   (i) at least one pair of PCR primers designed to amplify a DNA         segment which includes a SNP selected from the group consisting         of the SNPs in Group 1, and     -   (ii) instructions for use of the PCR primers to amplify the         segment of DNA.

The invention also provides a kit for identifying a human subject afflicted with multiple sclerosis or a single clinical attack consistent with multiple sclerosis as a predicted responder or as a predicted non-responder to glatiramer acetate, the kit comprising a reagent for performing a method selected from the group consisting of restriction fragment length polymorphism (RFLP) analysis, sequencing, single strand conformation polymorphism analysis (SSCP), chemical cleavage of mismatch (CCM), gene chip and denaturing high performance liquid chromatography (DHPLC) for determining the identity of at least one SNP selected from the group consisting of the SNPs of Group 1.

In some embodiments, the kit comprises

(i) at least one pair of PCR primers designed to amplify a DNA segment which includes a SNP selected from the group consisting of the SNPs of Group 1, and

(ii) at least one probe specific for a SNP selected from the group consisting of the SNPs of Group 1.

The invention also provides a kit for identifying a human subject afflicted with multiple sclerosis or a single clinical attack consistent with multiple sclerosis as a predicted responder or as a predicted non-responder to glatiramer acetate, the kit comprising reagents for TaqMan Open Array assay designed for determining the identity of at least one SNP selected from the group consisting of The SNPs of Group 1.

In some embodiments the kit further comprises instructions for use of the kit for identifying a human subject afflicted with multiple sclerosis or a single clinical attack consistent with multiple sclerosis as a predicted responder or as a predicted non-responder to glatiramer acetate.

In some embodiments, the one or more single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) is selected from the group consisting of rs947603, rs1007328, rs1573706, rs2177073, rs2487896, rs2511064, rs2521644, rs3135391, rs4148871, rs4343256, rs4344916, rs4369324, rs4445746, rs6097801, rs9508834, rs9944913, rs10853605, rs10931091, rs10950359, rs10988087, rs11599624, rs11617134, rs12256889, rs12639443, rs13042992, rs13238613, rs17087180, rs17575455, rs17771939 and rs17807327.

In some embodiments, the one or more single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) is selected from the group consisting of rs9508834, rs17807327, rs4344916, rs12639443, rs17087180 and rs17771939.

In some embodiments, the one or more single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) are selected from the group consisting of rs4344916, rs12639443, rs17087180 and rs17771939.

In some embodiments, the kit is designed to determine the genotype at SNPs rs9508834, rs17807327, rs4344916, rs12639443, rs17087180 and rs17771939.

In some embodiments, the kit is designed to determine the genotype at SNPs rs4344916, rs12639443, rs17087180 and rs17771939.

In some embodiments, the kit is designed to determine the genotype at SNPs rs2521644, rs12256889, rs214526, rs17771939, rs496486, and rs949298.

In some embodiments, the kit is designed to determine the genotype at SNPs rs2521644, rs12256889, rs214526, rs17771939, rs496486, and rs2511064.

In some embodiments, the kit is designed to determine the genotype at SNPs rs12256889, rs17771939, rs2511064, and rs2521644.

In some embodiments, the kit is designed to determine the genotype at SNPs rs11599624, rs12639443, rs13042992, rs13238613, rs17087180, rs17771939, rs17807327, rs2487896, rs3135391, rs4148871, rs4343256, rs4344916, and rs9508834.

In some embodiments, the kit is designed to determine the genotype at SNPs rs12256889, rs12639443, rs13238613, rs1573706, rs17087180, rs17771939, rs17807327, rs2487896, rs4343256, rs4344916, rs4369324, rs4445746, and rs9944913.

In some embodiments, the kit is designed to determine the genotype at SNPs rs10988087, rs12639443, rs13042992, rs13238613, rs1573706, rs17087180, rs17771939, rs17807327, rs4148871, rs4344916, rs6097801, and rs9508834.

In some embodiments, the kit is designed to determine the genotype at SNPs rs10988087, rs12256889, rs12639443, rs17087180, rs17771939, rs2177073, rs2521644, rs4344916, rs4369324, rs6097801, rs9508834, and rs9944913.

In some embodiments, the kit is designed to determine the genotype at SNPs rs10988087, rs11617134, rs12639443, rs13042992, rs17087180, rs17771939, rs17807327, rs2487896, rs4148871, rs4344916, rs4445746, rs6097801, and rs9508834.

In some embodiments, the kit is designed to determine the genotype at SNPs rs10988087, rs11617134, rs12639443, rs13042992, rs17087180, rs17771939, rs17807327, rs2487896, rs2521644, rs4148871, rs4344916, rs4445746, and rs6097801.

In some embodiments, the kit is designed to determine the genotype at SNPs rs10988087, rs12256889, rs12639443, rs17087180, rs17771939, rs17807327, rs2487896, rs4148871, rs4344916, rs6097801, and rs9508834.

In some embodiments, the kit is designed to determine the genotype at SNPs rs1007328, rs11617134, rs12639443, rs13238613, rs1573706, rs17087180, rs17771939, rs17807327, rs4343256, rs4344916, rs9508834, and rs9944913.

In some embodiments, the kit is designed to determine the genotype at SNPs rs12639443, rs17087180, rs17771939, rs17807327, rs2487896, rs4148871, rs4343256, rs4344916, rs4369324, rs4445746, rs6097801, rs9508834, and rs9944913.

In some embodiments, the kit is designed to determine the genotype at SNPs rs11617134, rs12639443, rs17087180, rs17771939, rs17807327, rs2487896, rs3135391, rs4148871, rs4344916, rs4369324, rs6097801, rs9508834, and rs9944913.

In some embodiments, the kit is designed to determine the genotype at SNPs rs10988087, rs12639443, rs13238613, rs17087180, rs17771939, rs2487896, rs4148871, rs4343256, rs4344916, and rs9508834.

In some embodiments, the kit is designed to determine the genotype at SNPs rs11617134, rs12256889, rs12639443, rs13042992, rs17087180, rs17771939, rs17807327, rs2177073, rs2487896, rs4343256, rs4344916, rs6097801, and rs9508834.

In some embodiments, the kit is designed to determine the genotype at SNPs rs10950359, rs11617134, rs12639443, rs17087180, rs17771939, rs2487896, rs2511064, rs3135391, rs4148871, rs4343256, rs4344916, rs9508834, and rs9944913.

In some embodiments, the kit is designed to determine the genotype at SNPs rs12256889, rs12639443, rs13042992, rs17087180, rs17771939, rs17807327, rs2487896, rs2521644, rs4344916, and rs6097801.

In some embodiments, the kit is designed to determine the genotype at SNPs rs10950359, rs10988087, rs11599624, rs12256889, rs12639443, rs13042992, rs17087180, rs17771939, rs17807327, rs2521644, rs3135391, rs4344916, and rs9508834.

In some embodiments, the kit is designed to determine the genotype at SNPs rs1007328, rs10950359, rs12256889, rs12639443, rs13042992, rs1573706, rs17087180, rs17771939, rs17807327, rs4343256, rs4344916, rs947603, and rs9508834.

In some embodiments, the kit is designed to determine the genotype at SNPs rs11599624, rs12256889, rs12639443, rs1573706, rs17087180, rs17771939, rs17807327, rs2177073, rs2487896, rs4344916, rs6097801, rs9508834, and rs9944913.

In some embodiments, a score is assigned to each genotype of each SNP, for the purpose of determining if the human subject is a predicted responder to glatiramer acetate, wherein the scores are approximately as shown in tables 18a-s and 19a-h.

In some embodiments, a relative weight is assigned to each SNP, for the purpose of determining if the human subject is a predicted responder to glatiramer acetate, wherein the relative weight is approximately as shown in one of tables 20-36, wherein the table selected corresponds to the SNPs at which a genotype was determined.

As used herein, a genetic marker refers to a DNA sequence that has a known location on a chromosome. Several non-limiting examples of classes of genetic markers include SNP (single nucleotide polymorphism), STR (short tandem repeat), and SFP (single feature polymorphism). VNTR (variable number tandem repeat), microsatellite polymorphism, insertions and deletions. The genetic markers associated with the invention are SNPs.

As used herein a SNP or “single nucleotide polymorphism” refers to a specific site in the genome where there is a difference in DNA base between individuals. In some embodiments the SNP is located in a coding region of a gene. In other embodiments the SNP is located in a noncoding region of a gene. In still other embodiments the SNP is located in an intergenic region.

Several non-limiting examples of databases from which information on SNPs or genes that are associated with human disease can be retrieved include: NCBI resources. The SNP Consortium LTD, NCBI dbSNP database, International HapMap Project, 1000 Genomes Project, Glover Variation Browser, SNPStats, PharmGKB, GEN-SniP, and SNPedia.

In some embodiments, SNPs associated with the invention comprise one or more of the SNPs listed in Tables 1-3 or table 16. In some embodiments, multiple SNPs are evaluated simultaneously while in other embodiments SNPS are evaluated separately. SNPs are identified herein using the rs identifier numbers in accordance with the NCBI dbSNP database, which is publically available at: www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/projects/SNP/.

In some embodiments, SNPs in linkage disequilibrium with the SNPs found to be associated with response or non-response to GA are useful for obtaining similar results.

As used herein, linkage disequilibrium refers to the non-random association of SNPs at one loci. Techniques for the measurement of linkage disequilibrium are known in the art. As two SNPs are in linkage disequilibrium if they are inherited together, the information they provide is correlated to a certain extent. SNPs in linkage disequilibrium with the SNPs included in the models can be obtained from databases such as HapMap or other related databases, from experimental setups run in laboratories or from computer-aided in-silico experiments.

Determining the genotype of a subject at a position of SNP as specified herein, e.g. as specified by NCBI dbSNP rs identifier, may comprise directly genotyping, e.g. by determining the identity of the nucleotide of each allele at the locus of SNP, and/or indirectly genotyping, e.g. by determining the identity of each allele at one or more loci that are in linkage disequilibrium with the SNP in question and which allow one to infer the identity of each allele at the locus of SNP in question with a substantial degree of confidence.

In some cases, indirect genotyping may comprise determining the identity of each allele at one or more loci that are in sufficiently high linkage disequilibrium with the SNP in question so as to allow one to infer the identity of each allele at the locus of SNP in question with a probability of at least 85%, at least 90% or at least 99% certainty.

A genotype at a position of SNP (genotype “at a” SNP) may be represented by a single letter which corresponds to the identity of the nucleotide at the SNP, where A represents adenine, T represents thymine, C represents cytosine, and G represents guanine. The identity of two alleles at a single SNP may be represented by a two letter combination of A, P. C, and G, where the first letter of the two letter combination represents one allele and the second letter represents the second allele, and where A represents adenine, T represents thymine, C represents cytosine, and G represents guanine. Thus, a two allele genotype at a SNP can be represented as, for example, AA, AT, AG, AC, TT, TG, TC, GG, GC, or CC. It is understood that AT, AG, AC, TG, TC, and GC are equivalent to TA, GA, CA, GT, CT, and CG, respectively.

The SNPs of the invention can be used as predictive indicators of the response to GA in subjects afflicted with multiple sclerosis or a single clinical attack consistent with multiple sclerosis. Aspects of the invention relate to determining the presence of SNPs through obtaining a patient DNA sample and genotyping the patient sample at one or more SNPs, or at a certain set of SNPs. It should be appreciated that a patient DNA sample can be extracted, and a SNP can be detected in the sample, through any means known to one of ordinary skill in art. Some non-limiting examples of known techniques include detection via restriction fragment length polymorphism (RFLP) analysis, microarrays including but mot limited to planar microarrays or bead arrays, gene arrays, PCR arrays including TaqMan Open Array, sequencing, single strand conformation polymorphism analysis (SSCP), chemical cleavage of mismatch (CCM), and denaturing high performance liquid chromatography (DHPLC).

In some embodiments, a SNP is detected through PCR amplification and sequencing of the DNA region comprising the SNP.

In some embodiments, a SNP is detected through PCR amplification in the presence of a probe specific for a SNP.

Probes and methods for their use in detecting SNPs are well known in the art and are described, for example, in Barnes M R. Genetic Variation: Methods and Protocols 1st ed. New York: Humana Press, 2010 and Komar, A A, Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms: Methods and Protocols 2^(nd) ed. York: Humana Press, 2009.

In some embodiments SNPs are detected using DNA microarrays including DNA CHIPS. Microarrays for detection of genetic polymorphisms, changes or mutations (in general, genetic variations) such as a SNP in a DNA sequence, comprise a solid surface, typically glass, on which a high number of genetic sequences are deposited (the probes), complementary to the genetic variations to be studied. Using standard robotic printers to apply probes to the array a high density of individual probe features can be obtained, for example probe densities of 600 features per cm² or more can be typically achieved. The positioning of probes on an array is precisely controlled by the printing device (robot, inkjet printer, photolithographic mask etc) and probes are aligned in a grid. The organisation of probes on the array facilitates the subsequent identification of specific probe-target interactions.

Additionally it is common, but not necessary, to divide the array features into smaller sectors, also grid-shaped, that are subsequently referred to as sub-arrays. Sub-arrays typically comprise 32 individual probe features although lower (e.g. 16) or higher (e.g. 64 or more) features can comprise each subarray.

In some embodiments, detection of genetic variation such as the presence of a SNP involves hybridization to sequences which specifically recognize the normal and the mutant allele in a fragment of DNA derived from a test sample. Typically, the fragment has been amplified, e.g. by using the polymerase chain reaction (PCR), and labelled e.g. with a fluorescent molecule. A laser can be used to detect bound labelled fragments on the chip and thus an individual who is homozygous for the normal allele can be specifically distinguished from heterozygous individuals (in the case of autosomal dominant conditions then these individuals are referred to as carriers) or those who are homozygous for the mutant allele.

In some embodiments, the amplification reaction and/or extension reaction is carried out on the microarray or bead itself. For differential hybridization based methods there are a number of methods for analysing hybridization data for genotyping: Increase in hybridization level: The hybridization levels of probes complementary to the normal and mutant alleles are compared. Decrease in hybridization level: Differences in the sequence between a control sample and a test sample can be identified by a decrease in the hybridization level of the totally complementary oligonucleotides with a reference sequence. A loss approximating 100% is produced in mutant homozygous individuals while there is only an approximately 50% loss in heterozygotes.

In Microarrays for examining all the bases of a sequence of “n” nucleotides (“oligonucleotide”) of length in both strands, a minimum of “2n” oligonucleotides that overlap with the previous oligonucleotide in all the sequence except in the nucleotide are necessary. Typically the size of the oligonucleotides is about 25 nucleotides. However it should be appreciated that the oligonucleotide can be any length that is appropriate as would be understood by one of ordinary skill in the art.

The increased number of oligonucleotides used to reconstruct the sequence reduces errors derived from fluctuation of the hybridization level. However, the exact change in sequence cannot be identified with this method; in some embodiments this method is combined with sequencing to identify the mutation. Where amplification or extension is carried out on the microarray or bead itself, three methods are presented by way of example: In the Minisequencing strategy, a mutation specific primer is fixed on the slide and after an extension reaction with fluorescent dideoxynucleotides, the image of the Microarray is captured with a scanner. In the Primer extension strategy, two oligonucleotides are designed for detection of the wild type and mutant sequences respectively. The extension reaction is subsequently carried out with one fluorescently labelled nucleotide and the remaining nucleotides unlabelled. In either case the starting material can be either an RNA sample or a DNA product amplified by PCR. In the Tag arrays strategy, an extension reaction is carried out in solution with specific primers, which carry a determined 5¹ sequence or “tag”. The use of Microarrays with oligonucleotides complementary to these sequences or “tags” allows the capture of the resultant products of the extension. Examples of this include the high density Microarray “Flex-flex” (Affymetrix). In the Illumina 1M Dou BeadChip array (www.illumina.com/products/human1m_duo_dna_analysis_beadchip_kits.ilmn), SNP genotypes are generated from fluorescent intensities using the manufacturer's default cluster settings.

In some aspects of the invention, predictive models including SNPs from tables 1-3 or table 16, are used to predict the response to GA.

In some aspects of the invention, predictive models include 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14 or more SNPs.

In some aspects of the invention, predictive models include 4, 6, 10, 11, 12, 13 or 14 SNPs.

In some aspects of the invention, a prediction model includes a specific set of SNPs constituting the model.

Some specific sets of SNPs constituting models of the invention are presented in tables 5, 8 and 17.

In some aspects of the invention, a predictive model (or “model”) is used to calculate the response probability p(Response) of a patient based on the genotype of the patient at the SNPs included in the specific model.

In some aspects of the invention, patients with a p(Response) above a specific threshold (“a predictive threshold”) are predicted to be responders to GA while patients with a p(Response) below the same predictive threshold are predicted to be non-responders to GA.

In other aspects of the invention, patients with a p(Response) above a first predictive threshold (for example. 0.8) are predicted to be responders to GA while patients with a p(Response) below a second predictive threshold which is lower than the first threshold (for example, 0.2) are predicted to be non-responders to GA.

In some aspects of the invention, patients with a p(Response) above 0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8 or 0.9 are predicted to be responders.

In some aspects of the invention, patients with a p(Response) below 0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8 or 0.9 are predicted to be non-responders.

In a certain aspect of the invention, the predictive threshold is 0.5, such that a patient with response probability p(Response) above 0.5 is predicted to be a responder to GA treatment and a patient with p(Response) below 0.5 is predicted to be a non-responder to GA treatment.

In another aspect of the invention, the predictive threshold is 0.8, such that a patient with response probability p(Response) above 0.8 is predicted to be a responder to GA treatment and a patient with p(Response) below 0.8 is predicted to be a non-responder to GA treatment.

In some aspects of the invention, the p(Response) is compared to a predetermined threshold or thresholds in order to decide whether to treat the patient with GA.

In certain aspects of the invention, such comparison is made by the patient and/or a caregiver including but not limited to a healthcare provider and a family member, or by a medical or a scientific entity including but not limited a hospital, a medical institute or a lab.

In other aspects of the invention, the p(Response) is used by the patient and/or a caregiver including but not limited to a healthcare provider and a family member or by a medical or a scientific entity including but not limited a hospital, a medical institute or a lab in order to decide whether to treat the patient with GA without referring to a specific/predetermined predictive threshold or thresholds.

In some aspects of the invention, the p(Response) calculation includes using a kit.

In some aspects of the invention, the use of the kit comprises genotyping of the patient.

In some aspects of the invention, the use of the kit comprises calculating the p(Response) of the patient.

In certain aspects of the invention, the use of the kit comprises an indication to the user if the patient is genetically predicted to be a responder or a non-responder to GA.

In some aspects of the invention measurement of clinical variables comprises part of the prediction model predicting response to GA along with the genetic variables. Some non-limiting examples of clinical variables are the age of the patient (in years), gender of patient, clinical manifestations and MRI parameter. “Clinical manifestations” include but are not limited to ROSS score and relapse rate, “MRI parameters” include but are not limited to the volume and/or number of T1 enhancing lesions and/or T2 enhancing lesions. In certain aspect of the invention, the clinical variables taken into account are as measured at the time of the decision about the treatment suitable for the patient, or measured at a time point which seams reasonable to the physician, researcher or other professional involved in the decision.

The identification of a patient as a responder or as a non-responder to GA based on the presence of at least one SNP from tables 1-3 or table 16 a set of SNPs from tables 1-3, 5, 8, 16 or 17, or the combination of a SNP or a set of SNPs from tables 1-3, 5, 8, 16 or 17 with one or more clinical variables described above, may be used for predicting response to GA.

Also within the scope of the invention are kits and instructions for their use.

In some embodiments of the invention the kits are diagnostic kits.

In some embodiments of the invention the kits are PCR amplification kits.

In some embodiments kits associated with the invention are kits for identifying one or more SNPs within a patient sample.

In some embodiments a kit may contain primers for amplifying a specific genetic locus.

In some embodiments, a kit may contain a probe for hybridizing to a specific SNP.

In some embodiments kits associated with the invention contain at least one pair of PCR primers designed to amplify a DNA segment which includes a SNP of the invention.

In some embodiments kits associated with the invention contain a set of pairs of PCR primers designed to amplify a specific set of SNPs constituting a model of the invention.

In some embodiments kits associated with the invention contain at least one probe specific for a SNP of the invention.

In some embodiments kits associated with the invention contain a set of probes specific for a specific set of SNPs constituting a model of the invention.

The kit of the invention can include reagents for conducting each of the following assays including but not limited to restriction fragment length polymorphism (RFLP) analysis, microarrays including but not limited to planar microarrays or bead arrays, sequencing, single strand conformation polymorphism analysis (SSCP), chemical cleavage of mismatch (CCM), and denaturing high performance liquid chromatography (DHPLC), PCR amplification and sequencing of the DNA region comprising the SNP. In some aspects of the invention, the kit comprises a TaqMan Open Array or reagents for conducting a TaqMan Open Array assay.

In some aspects of the invention, the TaqMan Open Array is designed for genotyping SNPs of the invention. In some aspects of the invention, the TaqMan Open Array is designed for genotyping a specific set of SNPs constituting a model of the invention.

A kit of the invention can include a description of use of the contents of the kit for participation in any biological or chemical mechanism disclosed herein.

A kit can include instructions for use of the kit components alone or in combination with other methods or compositions for assisting in screening or diagnosing a sample and/or determining whether a subject is predicted to be a responder or a non-responder to GA.

In some embodiments, a kit of the invention includes instructions for calculating a p(Response) of a patient based on his/her genotype in specific SNPs. In some embodiments, the instructions include a predictive threshold or predictive thresholds and instructions or recommendations of how to compare the calculated p(Response) to the threshold/s in order to predict whether the subject is a responder or non-responder to GA.

Forms of Multiple Sclerosis:

There are five distinct disease stages and/or types of MS:

-   -   1) benign multiple sclerosis;     -   2) relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS);     -   3) secondary progressive multiple sclerosis (SPMS);     -   4) progressive relapsing multiple sclerosis (PRMS); and     -   5) primary progressive multiple sclerosis (PPMS).

Benign multiple sclerosis is a retrospective diagnosis which is characterized by 1-2 exacerbations with complete recovery, no lasting disability and no disease progression for 10-15 years after the initial onset. Benign multiple sclerosis may, however, progress into other forms of multiple sclerosis.

Patients suffering from RRMS experience sporadic exacerbations or relapses, as well as periods of remission. Lesions and evidence of axonal loss may or may not be visible on MRI for patients with RRMS.

SPMS may evolve from RRMS. Patients afflicted with SPMS have relapses, a diminishing degree of recovery during remissions, less frequent remissions and more pronounced neurological deficits than RRMS patients. Enlarged ventricles, which are markers for atrophy of the corpus callosum, midline center and spinal cord, are visible on MRI of patients with SPMS.

PPMS is characterized by a steady progression of increasing neurological deficits without distinct attacks or remissions. Cerebral lesions, diffuse spinal cord damage and evidence of axonal loss are evident on the MRI of patients with PPMS. PPMS has periods of acute exacerbations while proceeding along a course of increasing neurological deficits without remissions. Lesions are evident on MRI of patients suffering from PRMS. (28)

A clinically isolated syndrome (CIS) is a single monosymptomatic attack compatible with MS, such as optic neuritis, brain stem symptoms, and partial myelitis. Patients with CIS that experience a second clinical attack are generally considered to have clinically definite multiple sclerosis (CDMS). Over 80 percent of patients with a CIS and MRI lesions go on to develop MS, while approximately 20 percent have a self-limited process.(29,30) Patients who experience a single clinical attack consistent with MS may have at least one lesion consistent with multiple sclerosis prior to the development of clinically definite multiple sclerosis.

Multiple sclerosis may present with optic neuritis, blurring of vision, diplopia, involuntary rapid eye movement, blindness, loss of balance, tremors, ataxia, vertigo, clumsiness of a limb, lack of co-ordination, weakness of one or more extremity, altered muscle tone, muscle stiffness, spasms, tingling, paraesthesia, burning sensations, muscle pains, facial pain, trigeminal neuralgia, stabbing sharp pains, burning tingling pain, slowing of speech, slurring of words, changes in rhythm of speech, dysphagia, fatigue, bladder problems (including urgency, frequency, incomplete emptying and incontinence), bowel problems (including constipation and loss of bowel control), impotence, diminished sexual arousal, loss of sensation, sensitivity to heat, loss of short term memory, loss of concentration, or loss of judgment or reasoning.

Relapsing Form of Multiple Sclerosis:

The term relapsing MS includes:

-   -   1) patients with RRMS;     -   2) patients with SPMS and superimposed relapses; and     -   3) patients with CIS who show lesion dissemination on subsequent         MRI scans according to McDonald's criteria.

As used herein, relapsing forms of multiple sclerosis include: Relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS), characterized by unpredictable acute episodes of neurological dysfunction (relapses), followed by variable recovery and periods of clinical stability;

Secondary Progressive MS (SPMS), wherein patients having RRMS develop sustained deterioration with or without relapses superimposed; and

Primary progressive-relapsing multiple sclerosis (PPRMS) or progressive-relapsing multiple sclerosis (PRMS), an uncommon form wherein patients developing a progressive deterioration from the beginning can also develop relapses later on.

Kurtzke Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS):

The Kurtzke Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) is a method of quantifying disability in multiple sclerosis. The EDSS replaced the previous Disability Status Scales which used to bunch people with MS in the lower brackets. The EDSS quantifies disability in eight Functional Systems (FS) and allows neurologists to assign a Functional System Score (FSS) in each of these. The Functional Systems are: pyramidal, cerebellar, brainstem, sensory, bowel and bladder, visual & cerebral (according to www.mult-sclerosis.org/expandeddisabil itystatusscale).

Clinical Relapse:

A clinical relapse, which may also be used herein as “relapse,” “confirmed relapse,” or “clinically defined relapse,” is defined as the appearance of one or more new neurological abnormalities or the reappearance of one or more previously observed neurological abnormalities.

This change in clinical state must last at least 48 hours and be immediately preceded by a relatively stable or improving neurological state of at least 30 days. This criterion is different from the clinical definition of exacerbation “at least 24 hours duration of symptoms,” (31) as detailed in the section “relapse evaluation.”

An event is counted as a relapse only when the subject's symptoms are accompanied by observed objective neurological changes, consistent with:

a) an increase of at least 0.5 in the EDSS score or one grade in the score of two or more of the seven FS (32); or,

b) two grades in the score of one of FS as compared to the previous evaluation.

The subject must not be undergoing any acute metabolic changes such as fever or other medical abnormality. A change in bowel/bladder function or in cognitive function must not be entirely responsible for the changes in EDSS or FS scores.

As used herein “a predicted responder/a genetically predicted responder to glatiramer acetate” is a human subject afflicted with multiple sclerosis or a single clinical attack consistent with multiple sclerosis that is predicted to be a responder to glatiramer acetate based on his/her genotype at SNPs, sets of SNPs or models of the invention. Similarly, a subject or patient which is predicted to be a non-responder to glatiramer acetate treatment based on his/her genotype is called “a predicted non-responder/genetically predicted non-responder to glatiramer acetate”.

As used herein, a “multiple sclerosis drug” is a drug or an agent intended to treat clinically defined MS, CIS, any form of neurodegenerative or demyelinating diseases, or symptoms of any of the above mentioned diseases. “Multiple sclerosis drugs” may include but are not limited to antibodies, immunosuppressants, anti-inflammatory agents, immunomodulators, cytokines, cytotoxic agents and steroids and may include approved drugs, drugs in clinical trial, or alternative treatments, intended to treat clinically defined MS, CIS or any form of neurodegenerative or demyelinating diseases. “Multiple sclerosis drugs” include but are not limited to Interferon and its derivatives (including BETASERON®, AVONEX® and REBIF®), Mitoxantrone and Natalizumab. Agents approved or in-trial for the treatment of other autoimmune diseases, but used in a MS or CIS patient to treat MS or CIS are also defined as multiple sclerosis drugs.

As used herein, a “naïve patient” is a subject that has not been treated with any multiple sclerosis drugs as defined in the former paragraph.

The administration of glatiramer acetate may be oral, nasal, pulmonary, parenteral, intravenous, intra-articular, transdermal, intradermal, subcutaneous, topical, intramuscular, rectal, intrathecal, intraocular, buccal or by gavage.

Experimental Details Examples Analysis of DNA Sequence Polymorphism in Patients Classified as Responders or Non-Responders to GA

Methods

Subjects:

Relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis patients were treated with either 20 mg GA or 40 mg GA daily in the Teva FORTE clinical trial (www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/48863.php). Blood samples were drawn from each subject that signed an informed consent for the pharmacogenetic study and analyzed as described below.

The incidence of clinical relapses, and MRI data after 12 months treatment (T1 and T2 enhancing lesions) were used to define patients as responders or non-responders, according to two definitions: A “broad definition” or A “narrow definition” described herein below. In a first analysis, the subjects were binomially classified as “responders” (R) or “non-responders” (NR) according to a definition herein below defined as “broad”. A further analysis was then conducted using a narrower definition, excluding some of the patients formerly classified as responders and leading to a much smaller sample. In addition, a third analysis used a continuous measure of response to GA, which was calculated based on the patients' clinical data and MRI parameters as described herein below (“A continuous measure”).

Response Definitions

A “broad definition” or “broad phenotype”: Responders according to the broad definition were defined as patients in the treatment group which had no relapse during the 12 months treatment period, and no T1 enhancing lesions and no new T2 enhancing lesions were observed at 12 months (end of 12 month treatment). Non responders were defined as patients having at least one relapse during the 12 months treatment period, and more than one new T2 enhancing lesion at 12 months.

A “narrow definition” or “narrow phenotype”: Responders according to the narrow definition, were defined as patients in the treatment group which had no relapse during the 12 months treatment period, and no T1 enhancing lesions and no new T2 enhancing lesions at 12 months, as in the “broad” definition. In addition, patients in which no T1 enhancing lesion were observed at the time of recruitment and subjects in which the volume of T2 lesions significantly increased (by 1000 mm³) during the experiment were not defined as responders. The definition of Non-responders was the same as in the “broad” definition.

A “Composite measure”, “composite phenotype” or “continuous measure” is calculated based on the clinical and MRI parameters (relapse rate during the 12 months treatment and T1 and T2 enhancing lesions at 12 months). This measure which is a continuous measure (in contrast to the “responder/non-responder” Binomial measure) was used in quantitative GWAS looking for SNPs associated with GA R/NR.

Relapse Evaluation

A clinical relapse was defined as the appearance of one or more new neurological abnormalities or the reappearance of one or more previously observed neurological abnormalities.

This change in clinical state lasted at least 48 hours and was immediately preceded by a relatively stable or improving neurological state of at least 30 days. The criterion used in the study was different from the clinical definition of exacerbation “at least 24 hours duration of symptoms”. (31) Since “in study” exacerbation definition must be supported by an objective neurological evaluation (see next paragraph), a neurological deficit must sustain long enough to eliminate pseudo exacerbations.

An event was counted as a relapse only when the subject's symptoms were accompanied by observed objective neurological changes, consistent with:

a) an increase of at least 0.5 in the EDSS score or one grade in the score of two or more of the seven FS (32); or,

b) two grades in the score of one of FS as compared to the previous evaluation.

The subject was not undergoing any acute metabolic changes such as fever or other medical abnormality. A change in bowel/bladder function or in cognitive function was not entirely responsible for the changes in EDSS or FS scores.

Subject Evaluation by the Examining Neurologist.

A complete neurological assessment was performed at months—1 (screening), 0 (baseline), 3, 6, 9, 12 (end of double-blind phase), and 24 (termination/early discontinuation).

Relapse Determination by the Treating Neurologist

The decision as to whether the neurological change was considered a confirmed relapse was made by the Treating Physician, based on EDSS/FS actual (not converted) scores assessed by the Examining Neurologist.

Follow-up visits to monitor the course of the relapse were made at the Treating Physician's discretion, in addition to the assessment at the next scheduled visit, but the neurological assessments were performed by the Examining Neurologist.

Relapse Evaluation Procedures

Subjects were instructed to telephone their study site within 48 hours should any symptoms suggestive of a relapse appear.

The Examining Neurologist evaluated the subject within 7 days at symptoms onset, conditional upon a symptomatic period of ≧48 hours. The Treating Neurologist/Physician evaluated the subject once any symptom suggestive of a relapse occurred.

In case of a suggestive relapse during a scheduled or unscheduled visit, the Treating Neurologist/Physician referred the subject to the Examining eurologist/Physician.

Analysis

The DNA chip selected for the GWAS was Illumina 1M Dou BeadChip (www.illumina.com/products/human1m_duo_dna_analysis_bead chip_kits.ilmn). Normalized bead intensity data obtained for each sample were analyzed with the Illumina Genome Studio v1.0.2 software, which generated SNP genotypes (including the different homozygotes and heterozygotes), from fluorescent intensities using the manufacturer's default cluster settings. Quality Controls (QC) included evaluation of call rate, check of SNPs with (1) no calls, (2) with MAF less than 0.05 and (3) with genotyping rate less than 0.9. SNPs that did not match these criteria were removed from further analyses. Data from individuals with missing genotyping >10% were also excluded from analyses. An additional quality control step was performed to exclude individuals and/or markers based on Mendelian error rate (PLINK; 56) version 1.04). SNPs with more than 10% and families with more than 5% Mendelian errors were discarded. Additionally, SNPs that showed a significant deviation from Hardy-Weinberg Equilibrium (HWE-p<0.00001) were flagged for evaluation before excluding them from further analyses.

GWAS analyses have been performed with the PLINK software (pngu.mgh.harvard.edu/˜purcell/plink/), using the appropriate subroutines to analyze binomial or continuous measures. Results have not been corrected for multiple testing. SNPs with a p value of 10⁻⁴ or lower from the three analyses are considered as having a predictive ability of GA response. For the binomial measures (broad and narrow definitions), a marker was selected if the distribution of genotypes were significantly different in responders than in non responders.

Predictive Modeling

To find genotypic profiles that discriminate responders (R) from the non-responders (NR) to the treatment, we used a backward stepwise logistic regression procedure on the SNPs that emerged significant using the narrow definition (e.g., at p-value=10⁻⁴ or lower). Other models were generated based on combinatorial optimization heuristics. Once a pool of models was created, selected models were chosen based on the low value of Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC) and low number SNPs in the model. The model chosen in the previous step went through “Leave one out” cross validation, searching for high values of the Area Under the ROC curve.

The response probability p(Response) of a specific patient was calculated according to the tables and formulas indicated for each specific model.

The SNPs were further genotypes by the TaqMan open array assay and the predictive value in the FORTE cohort and other cohorts was evaluated. Some of the predictive models were also evaluated in the same cohorts.

Results

GWAS Using the Three R/NR Phenotypes Found 86 SNPs Having a Predictive Value for the Response to Treatment with GA

As described in the “methods” section, SNPs with a p value of 10⁻⁴ or lower from the three analyses were considered as having a predictive ability of GA response.

When we conducted the GWAS analysis based on the broad definition, 17 SNPs having p value of 10⁻⁴ or lower were found. These SNPs are presented in table 1.

A second analysis was performed which included responders and non-responders according to the narrow definition. Using this definition, 31 SNPs having p value of 10⁻⁴ or lower were found. These SNPs are presented in table 2.

Performing the analysis using the composite phenotype, Genome-Wide (GW) significance was found for 38 SNPs having p value of 10⁻⁴ or lower, which are presented in table 3.

TABLE 1 Annotated SNPs with p-val < or = 1*10E−05 from the GWAS of the broad phenotype. Seventeen (17) SNPs have been genotyped with the Human1M Illumina chip and 110 additional SNPs are uniquely tagged by the genotyped SNPs. Among these 110 tagged SNPs, 11 are cross-represented within the list of the 17 “taggers”, ultimately leading to 99 tagged SNPs that are not present, on the Human 1M chip. distance SNP rank P chrom coordinates closest gene type to gene Tagged_SNP Tagged_SNP_r2 Tagged_SNP_P rs17771939 1 3.05E−07 8 94259105 AC011118.2 INTER- 99590 GENIC rs6097801 2 9.87E−07 20 52767434 CYP24A1 DOWN- 2554 STREAM rs6097797 3 1.60E−06 20 52763331 CYP24A1 INTER- 6657 GENIC rs4811492 1 — rs1886308 1 — rs6097782 1 — rs6091820 1 — rs11907046 1 — rs16999008 1 — rs873216 1 — rs6097790 1 — rs6097793 1 — rs4809955 1 1.83E−06 rs8118441 1 — rs6097801 1 9.87E−07 rs4809955 4 1.83E−06 20 52765349 CYP24A1 DOWN- 4639 STREAM rs1229553 5 2.53E−06 7 97432533 ; ASNS INTER- 48907 GENIC rs1234567 1 — rs1229568 1 3.76E−06 rs1234947 1 — rs1237625 1 — rs1229564 1 3.76E−06 rs1229563 1 — rs1229562 1 — rs1229559 1 — rs1229558 1 — rs1229557 1 — rs1229555 1 — rs2530123 0.93 — rs2530121 0.93 — rs1229542 6 3.76E−06 7 97422926 TAC1 INTER- 53048 GENIC rs1229568 7 3.76E−06 7 97425721 ASNS INTER- 55719 GENIC rs1234567 1 — rs1234947 1 — rs1237625 1 — rs1229564 1 3.76E−06 rs1229563 1 — rs1229562 1 — rs1229559 1 — rs1229558 1 — rs1229557 1 — rs1229555 1 — rs1229553 1 2.53E−06 rs2530123 0.93 — rs2530121 0.93 — rs1229564 8 3.76E−06 7 97428673 ASNS INTER- 52767 GENIC rs1234567 1 — rs1229568 1 3.76E−06 rs1234947 1 — rs1237625 1 — rs1229563 1 — rs1229562 1 — rs1229559 1 — rs1229558 1 — rs1229557 1 — rs1229555 1 — rs1229553 1 2.53E−06 rs2530123 0.93 — rs2530121 0.93 — rs4344916 9 3.84E−06 2 35597319 AC083939.1 INTER- −99352 GENIC rs4670454 0.84 — rs1439859 0.88 0.0008 rs7570329 0.88 — rs1439850 0.38 — rs10208122 0.88 — rs7587522 0.88 — rs4670460 0.88 — rs12477791 0.88 — rs17327405 0.88 0.004  rs7419474 0.88 — rs2371748 0.88 — rs11124426 0.88 — rs7608244 0.88 — rs13424077 0.92 2.33E−05 rs13398774 0.96 — rs13429141 0.88 — rs4233912 0.92 — rs10168563 0.92 — rs4643516 0.88 — rs7579183 0.88 0.0002 rs10174888 0.92 — rs10184819 0.88 — rs4371344 0.88 0.0004 rs10195590 0.88 — rs7584849 0.88 — rs6543931 0.87 0.0015 rs4533454 0.92 — rs7603696 0.92 0.0003 rs7584898 0.96 — rs11680546 0.96 — rs6739671 0.96 — rs9332420 0.96 1.13E−05 rs7556865 0.96 — rs7599336 0.96 — rs13021482 0.96 1.48E−05 rs6726189 0.96 — rs6741426 0.96 — rs11674793 0.96 — rs7560990 0.96 — rs6543934 0.96 1.48E−05 rs11694344 0.96 1.82E−05 rs6543935 0.96 — rs4578835 1 — rs4281882 1 — rs4289164 1 6.43E−06 rs4435429 1 — rs11124430 0.88 0.0005 rs2487896 10 5.51E−06 10 100802380 HPSE2 IN- 0 TRONIC rs2487889 0.93 2.86E−05 rs5908518 11 6.09E−06 X 142128422 SPANXN4 INTER- 5934 GENIC rs4289164 12 6.43E−06 2 35594631 AC083939.1 INTER- −102040 GENIC rs4670454 0.84 — rs1439859 0.88 0.0008 rs7570329 0.88 — rs1439850 0.88 — rs10208122 0.88 — rs7587522 0.88 — rs4670460 0.88 — rs12477791 0.88 — rs17327405 0.88 0.004  rs7419474 0.88 — rs2371748 0.88 — rs11124426 0.88 — rs7608244 0.88 — rs13424077 0.92 2.33E−05 rs13398774 0.96 — rs13429141 0.88 — rs4233912 0.92 — rs10168563 0.92 — rs4643516 0.88 — rs7579183 0.88 0.0002 rs10174888 0.92 — rs10184819 0.88 — rs4371344 0.88 0.0004 rs10195590 0.88 — rs7584849 0.88 — rs6543931 0.87 0.0015 rs4533454 0.92 — rs7603696 0.92 0.0003 rs7584898 0.96 — rs11680546 0.96 — rs6739671 0.96 — rs9332420 0.96 1.13E−05 rs7556865 0.96 — rs7599336 0.96 — rs13021482 0.96 1.48E−05 rs6726189 0.86 — rs6741426 0.96 — rs11674793 0.96 — rs7560990 0.96 — rs6543934 0.96 1.48E−05 rs11694344 0.96 1.82E−05 rs6543935 0.96 — rs4578835 1 — rs4281882 1 — rs4344916 1 3.84E−06 rs4435429 1 — rs11124430 0.88 0.0005 rs9405541 13 6.55E−06 6 2052811 GMDS IN- 0 TRONIC rs9392358 1 — rs9378319 1 — rs12055694 1 6.55E−06 rs17134651 1 — rs9405546 1 — rs9378684 1 — rs12055694 14 6.55E−06 6 2072157 GMDS IN- 0 TRONIC rs9405541 1 6.55E−06 rs9392358 1 — rs9378319 1 — rs17134651 1 — rs9405546 1 — rs9378684 1 — rs11009827 15 7.76E−06 10 19710332 C10orf112 IN- 0 TRONIC rs11009812 1 — rs11009826 1 — rs7912880 0.82 — rs11009835 1 7.76E−06 rs11009843 1 — rs11009835 16 7.76E−06 10 19712714 C10orf112 IN- 0 TRONIC rs11009812 1 — rs11009826 1 — rs11009827 1 7.76E−06 rs7912880 0.86 — rs11009843 1 — rs10508584 0.8 — rs12637073 17 9.79E−06 3 132183561 DNAJC13 IN- 0 TRONIC rs12639443 1 — rs11709339 1 — rs12633010 1 — rs10935015 1 — rs12496278 1 — rs10935016 1 — rs7619350 1 1.53E−05 rs7633210 0.93 — rs12494606 0.93 4.90E−05 rs12488259 0.86 4.90E−05 rs10935019 0.93 4.90E−05 rs2088713 0.93 4.90E−05 rs11719825 0.93 4.90E−05 rs10804610 0.93 0.0008 rs6779298 0.86 0.0008 rs2305623 0.93 0.0002 rs11719902 0.93 0.0002 rs10935023 0.93 0.0001 rs12491543 0.93 — rs10512873 0.93 — rs2168435 0.93 0.0006

TABLE 2 Annotated SNPs with p-val < or = 5 * 10E−05 from the GWAS of the narrow phenotype. Thirtyone (31) SNPs have been genotyped with the Human1M Illumina chip and 82 additional SNPs are uniquely tagged by the genotyped SNPs. Among these 82 tagged SNPs, 6 are cross-represented within the list of the 31 “taggers”, ultimately leading to 76 tagged SNPs that are not present on the Human 1M chip. SNP rank P chrom coordinates type closest gene rs10277267 1 4.03E−06 7 1809120 INTERGENIC AC074389.1 rs10950359 2 4.89E−06 7 1800967 INTRONIC AC074389.1 rs2521644 3 6.48E−06 7 24427969 INTERGENIC NPY rs35603463 4 9.28E−06 6 32531745 UPSTREAM AL713966.2 rs13245980 5 9.64E−06 7 1813198 INTERGENIC AC074389.1 rs10270654 6 9.64E−06 7 1815851 INTERGENIC AC074389.1 rs1538123 7 1.48E−05 10 110513959 WITHIN_NON_CODING_GENE RP11-655H13.2 rs4369324 8 1.48E−05 10 110530574 WITHIN_NON_CODING_GENE ;RP11-655H13.2 rs2895215 9 1.81E−05 7 1837636 INTERGENIC MAD1L1 rs10950371 10 1.95E−05 7 1825304 INTERGENIC AC074389.1 rs7916897 11 2.39E−05 10 9061104 INTERGENIC RP11-428L9.2 rs17807445 12 2.54E−05 6 80804273 INTERGENIC BCKDHB rs17771939 13 2.62E−05 8 94259105 INTERGENIC AC011118.2 rs6584894 14 2.90E−05 10 110518607 WITHIN_NON_CODING_GENE RP11-655H13.2 rs496486 15 3.18E−05 3 107225936 INTERGENIC BBX rs949298 16 3.29E−05 11 120608085 INTRONIC GRIK4 rs948032 17 3.29E−05 11 120608661 INTRONIC GRIK4 rs7803164 18 3.41E−05 7 1829835 INTERGENIC MAD1L1 rs7093143 19 3.65E−05 10 110478002 WITHIN_NON_CODING_GENE RP11-655H13.2 rs1415557 20 3.65E−05 10 110504802 WITHIN_NON_CODING_GENE RP11-655H13.2 rs7086707 21 3.65E−05 10 110573667 WITHIN_NON_CODING_GENE RP11-655H13.2 rs1007328 22 3.71E−05 15 96703373 INTERGENIC AC012409.1 rs12256889 23 4.34E−05 10 94827183 INTRONIC CYP26C1 rs214526 24 4.35E−05 6 18248916 INTRONIC DEK rs9315048 25 4.38E−05 13 31327840 INTRONIC ALOX5AP rs4445746 26 4.38E−05 13 31341435 DOWNSTREAM RP11-469L23.2 rs11599624 27 4.64E−05 10 110606763 UPSTREAM RP11-655H13.1 rs2155262 28 4.65E−05 11 120610692 INTRONIC GRIK4 rs10056549 29 4.73E−05 5 114329175 INTERGENIC RP11-438C19.2 rs844626 30 4.85E−05 6 147898558 WITHIN_NON_CODING_GENE AL034350.1 rs947603 31 4.87E−05 10 95249605 INTERGENIC CEP55 SNP distance to gene Tagged_SNP Tagged_SNP_r2 Tagged_SNP_P rs10277267 −7016 rs2222813 0.91 — rs10950359 0 rs2521644 96485 rs6971202 0.87 — rs2722398 0.83 — rs2521643 0.84 — rs2722396 0.88 0.0016 rs35603463 −3946 rs13245980 −11094 rs10270654 −13747 rs4634524 1 — rs4255033 1 — rs12532459 1 — rs12540494 1 — rs13231999 1 — rs10280601 1 — rs13245980 1 9.64E−06 rs10235174 1 — rs10238227 1 — rs10225815 1 — rs10228960 1 — rs6955820 1 — rs10950368 1 — rs10270415 1 — rs10270538 1 — rs12539381 1 — rs10271168 1 — rs4436012 1 — rs10259574 1 — rs10259592 1 — rs10259699 1 — rs10275253 1 — rs10278438 1 — rs1881858 0.87 — rs11766215 0.85 — rs10950371 0.86 1.95E−05 rs1538123 0 rs7080507 0.95 6.97E−05 rs1591661 0.95 — rs2685484 0.95 — rs2461319 0.86 — rs4369324 0 rs7080507 0.95 6.97E−05 rs1591661 0.95 — rs2685484 0.95 — rs2461319 0.86 — rs2895215 17747 rs10950371 −23200 rs7916897 45673 rs1031161 0.96 — rs17807445 −12091 rs12524041 0.87 — rs12529764 0.87 0.0002 rs17807327 1 — rs17771939 99590 rs6584894 0 rs496486 −15847 rs1282534 1 — rs1282540 1 7.04E−05 rs1299325 1 — rs1040194 1 — rs1282546 0.91 — rs552994 1 — rs657302 1 — rs577189 1 — rs660075 1 7.04E−05 rs656975 1 — rs860722 1 — rs618213 1 — rs565614 0.85 — rs2937395 1 — rs949298 0 rs948032 0 rs1320648 1 — rs752979 1 — rs7803164 25548 rs1881858 0.82 — rs11766215 0.85 — rs10950371 0.9 1.95E−05 rs13238613 0.95 — rs11761457 0.86 — rs7789703 0.86 9.91E−05 rs7806265 0.95 — rs2895215 0.86 1.81E−05 rs7093143 0 rs7080507 0.95 6.97E−05 rs1591661 0.95 — rs2685484 0.95 — rs2461319 0.9 — rs1415557 0 rs7080507 0.95 6.97E−05 rs1591661 0.95 — rs2685484 0.95 — rs2461319 0.86 — rs7086707 0 rs1007328 108628 rs12256889 0 rs214526 0 rs9315048 0 rs4468448 0.95 0.0014 rs12019512 0.9 0.0002 rs4466940 0.9 — rs4445746 1 4.38E−05 rs4445746 −35908 rs9315048 1 4.38E−05 rs4468448 0.95 0.0014 rs12019512 0.9 0.0002 rs4466940 0.9 — rs11599624 −1181 rs2155262 0 rs2852230 1 — rs949298 1 3.29E−05 rs752979 0.81 — rs751370 0.83 — rs751369 0.87 — rs2187495 1 — rs2511064 1 — rs2508806 1 — rs1892974 1 — rs948029 1 — rs10056549 −37795 rs844626 0 rs844612 1 — rs844610 1 0.0002 rs844609 1 — rs844608 1 — rs702355 1 — rs844603 1 — rs844602 1 — rs947603 −6764

Annotated SNPs with p-val < or = 5 * 10E−05 from the GWAS of the composite phenotype Thirty-eight (38) SNPs have been genotyped with the Human1M Illumina chip and 89 additional SNPs are uniquely tagged by the genotyped SNPs. Among these 89 tagged SNPs, 20 are cross-represented within the list of the 38 “taggers”, ultimately leading to 69 tagged SNPs that are not present on the Human 1M chip. SNP rank P chr coordinate type closest gene rs11617134 1 2.29E−08 13 30590793 INTERGENIC RP11-629E24.2 rs17588454 2 3.92E−08 13 30580656 INTERGENIC RP11-629E24.2 rs9944913 3 1.41E−07 18 31926438 INTERGENIC NOL4 rs2177073 4 1.84E−07 18 32054724 INTERGENIC DTNA rs913882 5 6.90E−07 20 56521654 INTERGENIC RP13-379L11.2 rs10136012 6 1.29E−06 14 93505960 INTRONIC ITPK1 rs6025927 7 1.35E−06 20 56523799 INTERGENIC RP13-379L11.2 rs884266 8 1.60E−06 20 56520904 INTERGENIC RP13-379L11.2 rs9405541 9 2.38E−06 6 2052811 INTRONIC GMDS rs869106 10 2.38E−06 9 2421273 DOWNSTREAM RP11-125B21.2 rs12055694 11 2.77E−06 6 2072157 INTRONIC GMDS rs28861531 12 3.22E−06 Y 1324728 INTERGENIC N/A rs10988087 13 3.35E−06 9 131443671 UPSTREAM SET rs11618546 14 3.50E−06 13 58874752 INTERGENIC RP11-538C21.1 rs894857 15 3.55E−06 1 211901341 UPSTREAM RP11-122M14.3 rs12340584 16 4.00E−06 9 14210653 INTRONIC NFIB rs6682365 17 4.01E−06 1 233718651 INTERGENIC KCNK1 rs1573706 18 4.04E−06 20 40921149 INTRONIC PTPRT rs12968586 19 4.59E−06 18 31909968 INTERGENIC NOL4 rs11081859 20 4.73E−06 18 31926289 INTERGENIC NOL4 rs17104742 21 4.86E−06 5 145895558 NON_SYNONYMOUS_CODING GPR151 rs10214633 22 5.54E−06 6 147989996 WITHIN_NON_CODING_GENE RP11-307P5.1 rs1041897 23 5.62E−06 20 46561222 INTERGENIC RP11-347D21.1 rs7955917 24 5.82E−06 12 128860496 INTERGENIC AC023595.1 rs6713772 25 5.95E−06 2 123216847 INTERGENIC N/A rs17575455 26 6.00E−06 2 76624220 INTERGENIC AC078940.2 rs1802027 27 6.79E−06 5 145890228 3PRIME_UTR TCERG1 rs998051 28 6.83E−06 5 145875259 INTRONIC TCERG1 rs7714122 29 6.87E−06 5 96255017 3PRIME_UTR ERAP2 rs3742228 30 7.00E−06 13 113459221 INTRONIC ATP11A rs4483642 31 7.19E−06 12 108308740 INTERGENIC ASCL4 rs12439713 32 7.27E−06 15 91200733 UPSTREAM AC021422.1 rs13042992 33 7.79E−06 20 14737843 INTRONIC MACROD2 rs17007730 34 7.89E−06 2 123192216 INTERGENIC N/A rs2277431 35 9.19E−06 13 113473375 INTRONIC ATP11A rs10931091 36 9.53E−06 2 184533968 INTERGENIC AC074182.1 rs6558102 37 9.69E−06 8 29096853 INTRONIC KIF13B rs4343256 38 1.01E−05 15 91198415 INTERGENIC AC021422.1 distance SNP to gene Tagged_SNP Tagged_SNP_r2 Tagged_SNP_P rs11617134 5365 rs35831078 0.82 — rs35831078 0.82 — rs17588454 0.82 3.92E−08 rs17588454 0.82 3.92E−08 rs7317000 1 — rs7317000 1 — rs17588454 15502 rs35831078 1 — rs7317000 0.83 — rs11617134 0.82 2.29E−08 rs9944913 −122923 rs7238006 1 — rs17666347 1 0.0004 rs2177073 −18530 rs913882 10528 rs6025914 0.95 — rs6025917 0.94 — rs12480795 0.95 — rs6015147 1 — rs6025921 0.95 — rs6025923 1 — rs884266 0.95 1.60E−06 rs884265 1 — rs6123749 1 — rs6123750 1 — rs6025924 1 — rs6025926 1 — rs6025927 1 1.35E−06 rs10136012 0 rs6025927 8383 rs6025914 0.96 — rs6025917 0.95 — rs12480795 1 — rs6015147 1 — rs6025921 0.83 — rs6025923 1 — rs884266 0.96 1.60E−06 rs884265 0.96 — rs913882 1 6.90E−07 rs6123749 1 — rs6123750 1 — rs6025924 1 — rs6025926 1 — rs884266 11278 rs6025914 0.92 — rs6025917 0.91 — rs12480795 0.92 — rs6015147 0.96 — rs6025921 0.8 — rs6025923 0.96 — rs884265 0.92 — rs913882 0.95 6.90E−07 rs6123749 0.96 — rs6123750 0.96 — rs6025924 0.96 — rs6025926 0.96 — rs6025927 0.96 1.35E−06 rs9405541 0 rs9392358 1 — rs9378319 1 — rs12055694 1 2.77E−06 rs17134651 1 — rs9405546 1 — rs9378684 1 — rs869106 1429 rs7033436 1 — rs7042088 0.93 — rs16906059 1 — rs869105 0.92 — rs9696012 0.83 — rs12055694 0 rs9405541 1 2.38E−06 rs9392358 1 — rs9378319 1 — rs17134651 1 — rs9405546 1 — rs9378684 1 — rs28861531 −9 rs10988087 −2032 rs11618546 67501 rs894857 −2597 rs12340584 0 rs6682365 −31099 rs11800854 1 — rs1573706 0 rs12968586 −106453 rs7232734 1 — rs8099595 1 — rs9952995 0.83 — rs7244801 1 — rs11081859 −122774 rs4799760 0.92 — rs17104742 0 rs17104665 1 — rs998051 1 6.83E−06 rs2033471 1 — rs1802027 1 6.79E−06 rs10214633 0 rs1041897 −18321 rs7955917 −22481 rs1905942 0.83 0.0064 rs1112925 0.83 0.0076 rs7963693 1 — rs1683691 1 — rs1713615 1 — rs1713618 0.91 — rs7979791 0.9 — rs4882750 0.81 — rs4882751 0.92 — rs6713772 −9 rs10864878 0.93 — rs17007730 1 7.89E−06 rs10207898 1 — rs11687082 1 — rs13412899 1 — rs10170186 1 — rs10170543 0.93 — rs6742690 1 — rs13419434 1 — rs11674429 1 — rs17575455 47985 rs17575434 0.92 0.0003 rs1802027 0 rs17104665 1 — rs998051 1 6.83E−06 rs2033471 1 — rs17104742 1 4.86E−06 rs998051 0 rs17104665 1 — rs2033471 1 — rs1802027 1 6.79E−06 rs17104742 1 4.86E−06 rs7714122 0 rs17087180 1 — rs3742228 0 rs4483642 138319 rs2374730 0.91 — rs4565951 1 — rs933863 1 — rs933864 1 — rs12439713 −2732 rs7175350 1 — rs7180867 1 0.0004 rs8035793 1 — rs10520693 1 — rs7183485 1 — rs11633340 1 — rs11638226 1 — rs6416556 1 — rs7178587 1 0.0001 rs6496716 1 — rs17180345 1 — rs4506872 1 — rs4343256 1 1.01E−05 rs12593600 1 — rs10083547 1 — rs4306478 1 — rs11855570 1 — rs13042992 0 rs17007730 −9 rs10864878 0.92 — rs10207898 1 — rs11687082 1 — rs13412899 1 — rs10170186 1 — rs10170543 0.92 — rs6742690 1 — rs13419434 1 — rs11674429 1 — rs6713772 1 5.95E−06 rs2277431 0 rs10931091 −61118 rs10931090 1 — rs11899025 0.81 — rs11884398 0.81 0.0037 rs6558102 0 rs4343256 −5050

Tables 1-3 also include the identity of the closest genes to the SNPs identified as having a predictive value for the response to GA (GWAS significant SNPs), and “tagged SNPs” (SNPs which are in linkage disequilibrium with the GWAS significant SNPs). SNPs which are in linkage disequilibrium with the GWAS significant SNPs and/or reside in the closest genes may also serve to predict whether the subject is a responder or non-responder to GA.

We then compared the p values of the SNPs we found using the broad definition to results from the analysis of the narrow definition. This comparison confirmed that the same SNPs had a significant association with response to GA in both analyses, as presented in table 4.

TABLE 4 results of GWAS using a narrow definition of the R/NR phenotype, with corresponding p values also for the broad phenotype SNP chromosome Closest gene Narrow Phenotype Broad Phenotype rs2521644 7 NPY; OTTHUMG00000022973 6.48E−06 0.0003 rs35603463 6 AL713966.1 9.28E−06 0.0002 rs4369324 10 OTTHUMG00000019024; RP11-655H13.1 1.48E−05 9.45E−05 rs1538123 10 OTTHUMG00000019024; RP11-655H13.1 1.48E−05 0.0001 rs17807445 6 OTTHUMG00000016430; BCKDHB 2.54E−05 0.0004 rs17771939 8 AC011118.1 2.62E−05 3.05E−07 rs6584894 10 OTTHUMG00000019024; RP11-655H13.1 2.90E−05 0.0003 rs496486 3 OTTHUMG00000150360; BBX 3.18E−05 6.86E−05 rs949298 11 GRIK4; OTTHUMG00000048255 3.29E−05 3.38E−05 rs948032 11 GRIK4; OTTHUMG00000048255 3.29E−05 3.38E−05 rs7086707 10 OTTHUMG00000019024; RP11-655H13.1 3.65E−05 0.0001 rs7093143 10 OTTHUMG00000019024; RP11-655H13.1 3.65E−05 0.0003 rs1415557 10 OTTHUMG00000019024; RP11-655H13.1 3.65E−05 0.0003 rs1007328 15 AC012409.1 3.71E−05 0.0007 rs12256889 10 CYP26C1; OTTHUMG00000018766 4.34E−05 0.0008 rs214526 6 OTTHUMG00000014319; DEK 4.35E−05 0.0018 rs9315048 13 ALOX5AP; OTTHUMG00000016677 4.38E−05 0.0008 rs4445746 13 ALOX5AP; OTTHUMG00000016677 4.38E−05 0.0015 rs2155262 11 GRIK4; OTTHUMG00000048255 4.65E−05 2.93E−05 rs844626 6 SAMD5; OTTHUMG00000015767 4.85E−05 0.0014 rs947603 10 CEP55; OTTHUMG00000018774 4.87E−05 0.0037 A Predictive Model Based on the SNPs Having a Predictive Value for the Response for GA Treatment

A predictive model using the SNPs from table 2 was created in order to improve the predictive value by certain combinations of SNPs with certain genotypes. It should be emphasized that this specific model is created by a specific backward stepwise procedure, and is therefore intended to illustrate certain preferred embodiments of the invention and is not limiting in nature. It would be appreciated by those of skill in the art that other sets of SNPs and combinations of certain SNPs with certain clinical variables may be obtained by methods known to the person skilled in the art, which would demonstrate a predictive value for the response to GA. Other predictive models created from SNPs from tables 1-3 and table 16 are presented in tables 17-36.

An analysis was performed which included responders and non-responders according to the narrow definition. Data from 33 patients classified as responders according to the narrow definition and from patients classified as non-responders were obtained, which included genotypes of all 31 SNPs. Patients which were included in the following prediction model consisting of 6 SNPs were 51 patients classified as responders, and 61 classified as non-responders, out of 599 patients in the FORTE cohort.

A backward stepwise logistic regression procedure led to the following predictive model which includes a set of 6 SNPs. The 6 SNPs and predictive values are presented in table 5. This model is also called FM1.

TABLE 5 results from a logistic regression analysis of R/NR to Copaxone with best resulting SNPs from the GWAS. The model has been performed with a backward stepwise procedure (probability of removal if p < 0.05) and lead to a pattern composed by 6 SNPs,. resp1_amir Odds Ratio Std. Err. z P > |z| [95% Conf. Interval] rs2521644_g 15.58231 14.09115 3.04 0.002 2.647807 91.70168 rs12256889_a 11.63899 11.44968 2.49 0.013 1.692618 80.03346 rs214526_a 10.38811 9.471729 2.57 0.010 1.739496 62.03686 rs17771939_g .0332771 .0338315 −3.35 0.001 .0045369 .2440786 rs496486_c .0205013 .0344571 −2.31 0.021 .0007606 .5526131 rs949298_a .1027731 .0902505 −2.59 0.010 .0183821 .5745987

In addition, the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV) were analyzed to determine the usefulness of the predictive model to predict the response to GA treatment. The sensitivity of the test is defined as the proportion of clinical responders who are correctly identified as such. The specificity on the other hand measures the proportion of negatives which are correctly identified. The PPV of a test is defined as the proportion of patients with positive test results who are correctly identified, whereas the NPV of a test is the proportion of patients with negative test results who are correctly identified.

The predictive values derived from the logistic regression in table 5 are presented in table 6.

TABLE 6 Classification table from the logistic regression as in Table 7 True Classified R NR Total (R) 29 3 32 (NR) 4 38 42 Total 33 41 74 Classified + if predicted Pr(R) >= .5 True R defined as resp1_amir != 0 Sensitivity Pr(+|R) 87.88% Specificity Pr(−|NR) 92.68% Positive predictive value Pr(R|+) 90.62% Negative predictive value Pr(NR|−) 90.48% False + rate for true ~D Pr(+|NR) 7.32% False − rate for true D Pr(−|R) 12.12% False + rate for classified + Pr(NR|+) 9.38% False − rate for classified − Pr(R|−) 9.52% Correctly classified 90.54%

Based on this model, it can be concluded that the specific set of SNPs presented in table 5 can be used to determine whether the patient is responder to GA.

The response probability of a specific patient was calculated according to the model. Following the genotyping of the patient at the relevant SNPs, the values of the 6 SNPs were recoded to numeric values as described in the following tables (7a-f):

TABLE 7a rs2521644 rs2521644_g TT 0 CT 1 CC 2

TABLE 7b rs12256889 rs12256889_a CC 0 AC 1 AA 2

TABLE 7c rs214526 rs214526_a CC 0 AC 1 AA 2

TABLE 7d rs17771939 rs17771939_g TT 0 CT 1 CC 2

TABLE 7e rs496486 rs496486_c AA 0 AC 1 CC 2

TABLE 7f rs949298 rs949298_a GG 0 AG 1 AA 2

-   -   Then, βX was calculated according to the following formula:         βX—−1.6546+2.7614·rs2521644_(g)+3.0106·rs12256889_(a)+2.4996·rs214526_(α)−2.6679·rs17771939_(g)−3.6010·rs496486_(c)−2.1277·rs949298_α     -   and the response probability p (Response) was calculated using         the formula:

${P({Response})} = \frac{{\mathbb{e}}^{\beta\; X}}{1 + {\mathbb{e}}^{\beta\; X}}$

Patients with p(Response) above 0.5 were predicted to be responders and patients with p(Response) below 0.5 were predicted to be non-responders. When the model was retrospectively applied to the full cohort of 599 FORTE patients, we observed that the annualized relapse rate (ARR) in patients genetically predicted as responders was reduced by 62% compared to all patients, and by 76% compared to non-responders (p<0.0001). When we applied the model retrospectively to a second independent cohort of 79 patients, the model could identify subpopulations genetically predicted to be responders and non-responders with respectively lower (for responders) and higher (for non-responders) relapse rate. In the placebo-treated arm no specific pattern could be observed. This may suggest that this genetic model is specific to response to GA and not to the MS disease natural course.

Two other variations of the model presented in table 5 were further created, as presented in table 8:

TABLE 8 Model SNPs in model FM1a rs12256889 rs17771939 rs214526 rs2521644 rs496486 rs2511064 FM2 rs12256889 rs17771939 rs2511064 rs2521644

The response probability of a specific patient was calculated according to each model. Following the genotyping of the patient at the relevant SNPS, the values of the SNPs were recoded to numeric values as described in the following tables (9a-f):

TABLE 9a Recoded rs12256889 value AA 2 AC 1 CC 0

TABLE 9b Recoded rs17771939 value CC 2 CT 1 TT 0

TABLE 9c Recoded rs2511064 value AA 0 AG 1 GG 2

TABLE 9d Recoded rs2521644 value TT 0 CT 1 CC 2

TABLE 9e Recoded rs496486 value AA 0 AC 1 CC 2

TABLE 9f Recoded rs214526 value AA 2 AC 1 CC 0

Then, βX was calculated by multiplying the recoded value of each of the defined numeric variables by the coefficient in the table (Table 10 for the FM1 model, table 11 for the FM2 model):

TABLE 10 FM1a model parameter Coefficient Intercept −5.0447 rs12256889 2.8853 rs17771939 −1.9024 rs214526 3.2451 rs2521644 1.9614 rs496486 −2.2393 rs2511064 1.7477

TABLE 11 FM2 model parameter Coefficient Intercept −2.8016 rs12256889 1.5847 rs17771939 −0.9850 rs2521644 1.1482 rs2511064 1.1486

-   -   and the response probability p(Response) was calculated using         the formula:

${P({Response})} = \frac{{\mathbb{e}}^{\beta\; X}}{1 + {\mathbb{e}}^{\beta\; X}}$

GWAS Using a Composite/Continuous Measure

A composite measure has been created using a multivariate algorithm that considers diverse measures (Number of Relapses, Number of new T2 lesions and number of T1 lesions) in a unique quantitative measure of Response to Copaxone. Then, we performed a quantitative GWAS looking for SNPs that may distinguish R from NR patients. As described above, analysis using the composite measure led to the identification of 38 SNPs having p value of 10⁻⁴ or lower, which are presented in table 3.

Pathway Analyses

We created a list of genes identified via SNPs by the GWAS analyses for the broad and narrow phenotypes. The two lists are presented in Table 12. Based on these genes, we identified several canonical pathways which are significantly enriched using the broad or the narrow definitions. Beginning with the list of “genes” presented in table 12, we could initially find out which canonical pathways are significantly enriched using the broad (Table 13) or the narrow (Table 14) phenotype.

TABLE 12 List of genes identified via SNPs from the GWAS analyses BROAD PHENO NARROW PHENO AC016885.1 AC011118.1 CYP24A1 CYP24A1 ASNS ASNS TAC1 TAC1 ASNS ASNS AC083939.1 SPANXN4 HPSE2 GMDS SPANXN4 C10orf112 AC083939.1 DNAJC13 GMDS NPY C10orf112 AL713966.1 C10orf112 BCKDHB DNAJC13 RP11-655H13.1 BBX GRIK4 AC012409.1 CYP26C1 DEK ALOX5AP SAMD5 CEP55 AC093762.1 AL138825.1

TABLE 13 Canonical pathways significantly enriched by top SNPs in broad definition Pathway P-value Genes Stilbene, Coumarine and Lignin Biosynthesis 1.28E−02 CYP24A1 Ascorbate and Aldarate Metabolism 1.16E−02 CYP24A1 Biosynthesis of Steroids 7.81E−03 CYP24A1 Neuroprotective Role of THOP1 in Alzheimer's 1.85E−02 TAC1 Disease Alanine and Aspartate Metabolism 1.14E−02 ASNS Nitrogen Metabolism 7.52E−03 ASNS Fructose and Mannose Metabolism 6.90E−03 GMDS VDR/RXR Activation 1.25E−02 CYP24A1 Sphingolipid Metabolism 8.62E−03 CYP24A1 Neuropathic Pain Signaling In Dorsal Horn 9.71E−03 TAC1 Neurons NRF2-mediated Oxidative Stress Response 5.46E−03 DNAJC13

TABLE 14 Canonical pathways significantly enriched by top SNPs in narrow definition Pathway P-value Genes Stilbene, Coumarine and Lignin Biosynthesis 2.56E−02 CYP24A1, BCKDHB Ascorbate and Aldarate Metabolism 2.33E−02 CYP24A1, BCKDHB Aminophosphonate Metabolism 1.54E−02 BCKDHB Biosynthesis of Steroids 7.81E−03 CYP24A1 Pentose Phosphate Pathway 1.12E−02 BCKDHB Neuroprotective Role of THOP1 in 1.85E−02 TAC1 Alzheimer's Disease Alanine and Aspartate Metabolism 1.14E−02 ASNS Nitrogen Metabolism 7.52E−03 ASNS Pentose and Glucuronate Interconversions 6.67E−03 BCKDHB Glutamate Receptor Signaling 1.43E−02 GRIK4 Fructose and Mannose Metabolism 6.90E−03 GMDS Eicosanoid Signaling 1.20E−02 ALOX5AP Valine, Leucine and Isoleucine Degradation 9.01E−03 BCKDHB Leptin Signaling in Obesity 1.22E−02 NPY Ubiquinone Biosynthesis 8.40E−03 BCKDHB VDR/RXR Activation 1.25E−02 CYP24A1 Tyrosine Metabolism 4.95E−03 BCKDHB Arginine and Proline Metabolism 5.46E−03 BCKDHB Pyruvate Metabolism 6.71E−03 BCKDHB Sphingolipid Metabolism 8.62E−03 CYP24A1 Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis Signaling 8.93E−03 GRIK4 Neuropathic Pain Signaling In Dorsal Horn 9.71E−03 TAC1 Neurons Tryptophan Metabolism 3.95E−03 BCKDHB CREB Signaling in Neurons 5.10E−03 GRIK4 NRF2-mediated Oxidative Stress Response 5.46E−03 DNAJC13 Purine Metabolism 2.28E−03 BCKDHB

With the same enrichment strategy, we can generate various pathways that our current findings suggest, and that are related to disorder-related pathways, Molecular and cellular functions and Physiological system development and functions. Table 15 (a and b) shows a summary of the pathways findings.

TABLE 15a-15b P-value Genes 15.a BROAD PHENOTYPE TOP BIO FUNCTIONS Disease and disorders Neurological Disease 1.66E−03-3.68E−02 GMDS, TAC1, HPSE2, ASNS, C10ORF112 Cancer  1.9E−03-1.9E−03 CYP24A1 Endocrine System Disorders  1.9E−03-2.73E−02 CYP24A1, GMDS, HPSE2, C10ORF112 Connective Tissue Disorders 4.22E−02-4.22E−02 GMDS, TAC1, HPSE2 Genetic Disorder 1.9E−03-3.68E−02 CYP24A1, GMDS, TAC1, HPSE2, ASNS, C10ORF112 Psychological Disorders 1.98E−03-3.37E−02 GMDS, TAC1, HPSE2, C10ORF112 Molecular and cellular functions Amino Acid Metabolism 4.76E−04-1.93E−02 TAC1 Cell Cycle 4.76E−04-5.69E−03 TAC1 Cell Signaling 4.76E−04-2.63E−02 TAC1 Drug Metabolism 4.76E−04-3.37E−02 CYP24A1, TAC1 Lipid Metabolism 4.76E−04-3.74E−02 CYP24A1, TAC1 Physiological System Development and Functions Connective Tissue Development and 4.76E−04-2.85E−03 TAC1 Function Digestive System Development and 4.76E−04-2.45E−02 TAC1 Function Organ Morphology 4.76E−04-2.38E−03 TAC1 Skeletal and Muscular System 4.76E−04-8.53E−03 CYP24A1, TAC1 Development and Function Tissue Morphology 4.76E−04-1.93E−02 TAC1 15.b NARROW PHENOTYPE TOP BIO FUNCTIONS Disease and disorders Connective Tissue Disorders 2.93E−04-2.72E−02 NPY, DEK, GMDS, GRIK4, SAMD5, ALOX5AP, TAC1, BCKDHB Inflammatory Disease 2.93E−04-2.72E−02 NPY, DEK, GMDS, GRIK4, SAMD5, ALOX5AP, TAC1, C10ORF112, BCKDHB Skeletal and Muscular Disorders 2.93E−04-2.72E−02 NPY, DEK, GMDS, GRIK4, SAMD5, ALOX5AP, TAC1, ASNS, BCKDHB Hypersensitivity Response 1.02E−03-7.11E−03 NPY, TAC1 Inflammatory Response 1.02E−03-4E−02 NPY, DEK, ALOX5AP, TAC1 Molecular and cellular functions Cell Morphology 1.84E−05-2.82E−02 NPY, GRIK4, TAC1 Amino Acid Metabolism 7.77E−04-2.52E−02 NPY, TAC1, BCKDHB Molecular Transport 7.77E−04-3.63E−02 NPY, CYP24A1, GRIK4, ALOX5AP, TAC1 Small Molecule Biochemistry 7.77E−04-3.71E−02 NPY, CYP24A1, GMDS, CYP26C1, ALOX5AP, TAC1, BCKDHB Cell Cycle 1.02E−03-4.98E−02 DEK, TAC1, ASNS, CEP55 Physiological System Development and Functions Behavior 5.99E−04-4.88E−02 NPY, TAC1 Nervous System Development and  2.1E−03-4.67E−02 NPY, GRIK4, TAC1 Function Connective Tissue Development and 1.02E−03-2.62E−02 NPY, TAC1 Function Digestive System Development and 1.02E−03-4.59E−02 NPY, TAC1 Function Organ Morphology 1.02E−03-5.09E−03 TAC1, ALOX5AP

As examples, FIGS. 1-2 were created using the Ingenuity Systems Pathway Analysis software, show how a set of genes from some of the enriched pathways reported in Table 15 can be arranged within the blueprint of a cellular layout, to suggest possible functional hypotheses of how genes indirectly related to Response to Copaxone by proxy SNPs may act.

FIG. 1 relates to the broad phenotype findings, points to genes related to Inflammatory Response, Cell-To-Cell Signaling and Interaction and Hematological System Development and Function (AIM2, ANXA11, ASNS, CAK, CYB561, CYP24A1, DDR2, DNAJB4, DNAJB6, DNAJB7, DNAJC13, EOMES, ESM1, GDPmannose 4,6-dehydratase, GLS, GMDS, GPNMB, H6PD, HLA Class I, HLA-DMA, HNF4A, Hsp70, IFI30, IFNG, IGH-2, IL17RB, LY6A, MEFV, MRC1, NDRG4, PTEN, ROBO3, SMTN, TAC1, TAC4, TGFB1, TTC28, TYMP, ZFPM1)

FIG. 2, relates to the narrow phenotype findings, points to pathways relating to Cell Death; Cell-To-Cell Signaling and Interaction; Cellular Development via another set of genes that are again identified by the resulting significant SNPs from the GWAS on narrow phenotype (ALOX5AP, ASNS, B4GALNT1, BBX, BCKDHB, beta-estradiol, CCRN4L, CD276, CEP55, CYP24A1, CYP26C, CYP26C1, DEK, DNAJC13, GCAT, GMDS, GRIK4, HCG 1787519, HCRTR1, HRAS, Hsp90, IL17B, IL4, LAD1, NFRKB, NPY, NUDT1, PGLYRP1, PTEN, SLC14A1, SPRR2B, SPRR2G (includes EG6706), TAC1, TACR3, TCRB-V8.3, TNF, ZNF267).

We have further repeated the analysis using the Ingenuity Systems Pathway Analysis software and created a modified pathway analysis.

FIG. 3, relates to the narrow phenotype findings, points to pathways relating to connective Tissue Disorders, Metabolic Disease, Lipid Metabolism via another set of genes that are relating to Cell Cycle, DNA Replication, Recombination, and Repair, Cellular Growth and Proliferation. The two networks are functionally related to each other and together make a single large Gene Regulatory Network orchestrated by TNFα and CEBPB. A third, independent pathway is related to GRIK4 (Glutamatergic transmission).

Prediction Using the Broad, Narrow, and Composite Definitions of R/NR

We tested 81 GWAS significant SNPs from tables 1-3 and SNPs which are in linkage disequilibrium with those SNPS (“tagged SNPs”) in a confirmation study. The SNPs were genotypes by the TaqMan Open Array assay and the predictive value in the FORTE cohort was evaluated. Table 16 suggests an interpretation of genotype data to Response/Non-Response prediction according to the narrow definition. For the SNPs and tagged SNPs originating in the broad and narrow phenotypes, PPV, NPV, specificity and sensitivity values are given. For SNPs and tagged SNPs originating in the composite phenotype, R square is given. When tested in non-treated patients (from the CORAL study), none of the SNPs that were found highly associated with response in the FORTE study were found associated with response. Table 16a presents data for the broad phenotype, Table 16b presents data for the narrow and composite phenotypes.

TABLE 16a Broad Phenotype positive negative analysis according to response predicting predicting SNP ID R Allele NR Allele phenotype: definition P-value specificity sensitivity value value rs1007328 TT CC broad/narrow broad 0.00125 37.50% 97.70% 85.80% 80.80% rs10083547 GG CC, CG composite/broad broad 0.04799 35.60% 97.20% 84.70% 77.80% rs10136012 GG TT composite/broad broad 0.08301 32.20% 97.20% 84.10% 76.00% rs10214633 — — composite/narrow broad 0.36439 34.50% 96.90% 85.00% 74.10% rs10277267 AA, AG GG broad/narrow broad 0.25544 35.60% 96.80% 84.60% 75.00% rs1040194 GG AA, AG broad/narrow broad 0.00787 35.60% 96.80% 84.80% 75.00% rs1041897 CC CT, TT composite broad 0.58427 31.00% 96.30% 84.10% 69.20% rs10853605 CC TT broad/narrow/composite broad 0.00033 42.40% 97.30% 86.30% 80.60% rs10931091 TT CC, CT composite broad 0.92888 30.50% 96.30% 83.50% 69.20% rs10935015 AA AG, GG broad/narrow/composite broad 0.03250 39.00% 96.80% 85.40% 76.70% rs10935016 CC AA, AC broad/narrow/composite broad 0.02452 39.70% 96.40% 85.90% 74.20% rs10935019 AA AG, GG broad/narrow/composite broad 0.07243 37.30% 96.80% 85.10% 75.90% rs10950359 AG, GG AA narrow broad 0.10917 35.00% 96.70% 84.20% 75.00% rs10950371 CC, CT TT broad/narrow broad 0.03299 36.70% 97.30% 85.10% 78.60% rs10988087 AA AG, GG composite broad 0.97429 34.50% 96.80% 84.70% 74.10% rs11009827 CC AA, AC broad broad 0.03226 36.20% 97.30% 85.20% 77.80% rs11009835 CC CT, TT broad broad 0.06069 34.50% 97.30% 84.90% 76.90% rs11081859 AA AG, GG composite broad 0.31158 32.20% 96.70% 83.70% 73.10% rs11599624 AG, GG AA broad/narrow/composite broad 0.00254 41.40% 96.20% 85.50% 75.00% rs11617134 TT CC, CT composite/broad broad 0.00609 42.40% 96.80% 86.20% 78.10% rs11618546 CC, CG GG composite broad 0.78326 31.70% 96.40% 84.00% 70.40% rs11694344 AA CC broad/narrow/composite broad 0.00449 39.00% 97.20% 85.50% 79.30% rs11709339 TT CC, CT broad/narrow/composite broad 0.02699 39.70% 97.30% 85.90% 79.30% rs11719825 TT GG, GT broad/narrow/composite broad 0.04708 35.10% 97.20% 84.70% 76.90% rs11761457 TT, CT CC broad/narrow broad 0.05228 35.60% 97.30% 84.90% 77.80% rs11907046 CC TT broad/narrow broad 0.00115 43.30% 95.90% 86.20% 74.30% rs12055694 GG AA, AG broad/narrow/composite broad 0.00789 39.00% 96.80% 85.40% 76.70% rs12256889 AA, AC CC broad/narrow/composite broad 0.01840 37.30% 96.80% 85.10% 75.90% rs1229542 CC, CA AA broad broad 0.03832 31.00% 96.40% 84.30% 69.20% rs1229553 TT CC, CT composite/broad broad 0.02602 35.00% 96.40% 84.70% 72.40% rs1229555 CC CT, TT composite/broad broad 0.02523 36.20% 96.90% 85.40% 75.00% rs1229558 GG AA, AG composite broad 0.34952 33.90% 97.70% 85.40% 79.20% rs1229562 CC, CT TT composite/broad broad 0.02149 35.60% 96.70% 84.50% 75.00% rs1229563 CC CT, TT composite/broad broad 0.02734 35.60% 96.80% 84.80% 75.00% rs1229564 CC CT, TT composite/broad broad 0.02309 35.60% 96.80% 84.90% 75.00% rs1229568 CC CT, TT composite/broad broad 0.02316 35.60% 96.70% 84.60% 75.00% rs12340584 AA AG, GG composite broad 0.57078 35.00% 97.30% 84.80% 77.80% rs1234567 TT CC, CT composite/broad broad 0.02755 35.00% 96.40% 84.70% 72.40% rs1234947 TT CC, CT composite/broad broad 0.02605 35.00% 96.40% 84.60% 72.40% rs1237625 GG AA, AG composite/broad broad 0.02189 35.60% 96.80% 84.80% 75.00% rs12488259 CC AA, AC broad/narrow/composite broad 0.02922 33.90% 96.80% 84.50% 74.10% rs12494606 AA AG, GG broad/narrow/composite broad 0.06989 37.30% 96.80% 85.00% 75.90% rs12496278 GG CC, CG broad/narrow/composite broad 0.01703 38.30% 96.40% 85.10% 74.20% rs12524041 AT broad/narrow broad 0.01216 32.20% 96.40% 84.10% 70.40% rs12529764 CT broad/narrow broad 0.01478 32.80% 96.30% 84.10% 70.40% rs12532459 GT, TT GG narrow broad 0.20971 37.30% 96.70% 84.90% 75.90% rs12540494 GG AA, AG narrow broad 0.14854 37.30% 96.80% 85.10% 75.90% rs12593600 TT CC, CT broad/narrow/composite broad 0.03049 36.20% 97.30% 85.20% 77.80% rs12633010 GG GT broad/narrow broad 0.04672 38.60% 97.30% 86.20% 78.60% rs12637073 GG AA, AG broad/narrow/composite broad 0.01574 40.00% 95.90% 85.40% 72.70% rs12639443 CC CT, TT broad/narrow/composite broad 0.01513 39.00% 95.90% 85.50% 71.90% rs1264423 TT broad/narrow broad 0.04086 37.30% 96.80% 85.10% 75.90% rs1282540 GG AA, AG broad/narrow broad 0.01061 33.30% 96.80% 84.60% 73.10% rs1282546 GG AA, AG broad/narrow broad 0.00800 35.60% 96.80% 84.70% 75.00% rs12968586 GG AA, AG composite broad 0.74958 31.70% 96.40% 83.90% 70.40% rs1299325 GG CC, CG broad/narrow broad 0.00972 35.60% 96.80% 84.70% 75.00% rs13021482 CC, CT broad broad 0.01565 36.50% 96.90% 85.10% 76.00% rs13042992 TT GG, GT composite/broad broad 0.02245 34.50% 96.70% 84.50% 74.10% rs1320648 TT CC, CT broad/narrow broad 0.00037 36.20% 95.90% 85.10% 70.00% rs13238613 CC, CT TT broad/narrow broad 0.04644 35.60% 97.30% 84.90% 77.80% rs13245980 AG, GG AA narrow broad 0.16285 37.30% 96.80% 85.20% 75.90% rs1415557 AA, AG broad/narrow broad 0.01902 33.90% 96.80% 84.30% 74.10% rs1538123 CT, TT CC broad/narrow broad 0.00422 39.00% 96.80% 85.50% 76.70% rs1573706 CC CT, TT broad/narrow/composite broad 0.00645 44.10% 97.20% 86.50% 81.30% rs1591661 CT, TT CC broad/narrow broad 0.00665 39.00% 96.80% 85.30% 76.70% rs1611185 CT CC broad/narrow/composite broad 0.00162 38.90% 97.60% 86.10% 80.80% rs1683691 CC CT, TT composite broad 0.20336 37.30% 96.80% 85.10% 75.90% rs16999008 GG AA, AG broad/narrow broad 0.00079 44.10% 96.00% 86.60% 74.30% rs17007730 AA AG, GG composite broad 0.28369 31.00% 97.70% 84.20% 78.30% rs17087180 AA AG, GG composite broad 0.44158 29.80% 97.20% 83.90% 73.90% rs17104665 AA, GG AG composite broad 0.89875 31.00% 96.70% 83.80% 72.00% rs17104742 AA, GG AG composite broad 0.84851 31.60% 96.80% 84.50% 72.00% rs17134651 TT CC, TT broad/narrow/composite broad 0.00970 39.00% 96.80% 85.50% 76.70% rs17575455 CC AA composite broad 0.10700 37.30% 96.40% 85.10% 73.30% rs17588454 AA AG, GG broad/narrow/composite broad 0.00670 40.70% 96.80% 85.80% 77.40% rs17666347 TT CC, CT composite broad 0.72869 33.90% 96.30% 84.30% 71.40% rs17771939 TT CC broad/narrow broad 0.00006 47.50% 95.00% 87.00% 71.80% rs17807327 AA, AC broad/narrow broad 0.01086 32.20% 96.30% 84.10% 70.40% rs17807445 CC, CT broad/narrow broad 0.01540 33.30% 96.40% 84.30% 71.40% rs1886308 GG, GT broad/narrow broad 0.00115 43.30% 96.00% 86.30% 74.30% rs1892974 AA TT broad/narrow broad 0.00006 37.30% 94.60% 85.10% 64.70% rs1941973 CT CC, TT composite broad 0.71879 30.00% 96.80% 83.50% 72.00% rs2033471 GG CG composite broad 0.99912 32.20% 96.90% 84.40% 73.10% rs2088713 AA AC broad/narrow/composite broad 0.01689 40.40% 96.30% 85.80% 74.20% rs214526 AA, AC CC narrow broad 0.18675 34.50% 97.30% 84.90% 76.90% rs2155262 GG GG, CG broad/narrow broad 0.00006 39.00% 95.00% 85.20% 67.60% rs2177073 CC AA, AC composite/broad broad 0.02974 35.00% 95.90% 84.50% 70.00% rs2187495 CC CT, TT broad/narrow broad 0.00007 38.30% 95.10% 85.10% 67.60% rs2277431 CC CT, TT composite broad 0.96105 33.30% 96.40% 84.30% 71.40% rs2305623 GG, GT narrow broad 0.17456 33.90% 96.80% 84.50% 74.10% rs2374730 AA AG composite broad 0.70015 35.00% 96.90% 84.80% 75.00% rs2461319 TT, CT CC narrow broad 0.17373 32.20% 97.30% 84.20% 76.00% rs2487889 GG AG broad/narrow broad 0.00113 39.00% 97.30% 85.50% 79.30% rs2487896 GG AG broad/narrow broad 0.00094 41.70% 96.90% 86.10% 78.10% rs2508806 TT CC, CT broad/narrow broad 0.00007 38.20% 95.80% 85.70% 70.00% rs2511064 GG AA, AG broad/narrow broad 0.00007 42.40% 94.60% 86.10% 67.60% rs2521643 GG, AG AA broad/narrow broad 0.01564 38.30% 97.30% 85.40% 79.30% rs2521644 CC TT broad/narrow broad 0.00918 39.70% 97.30% 85.90% 79.30% rs2530121 GG TT composite/broad broad 0.02672 36.20% 96.80% 85.00% 75.00% rs2530123 GG TT composite/broad broad 0.02099 40.40% 96.70% 85.90% 76.70% rs2685484 CC, CT TT broad/narrow broad 0.00334 41.70% 96.80% 85.90% 78.10% rs2722396 TT CC broad/narrow broad 0.06130 33.90% 97.30% 84.80% 76.90% rs2722398 TT, CT CC broad/narrow broad 0.01847 38.30% 97.30% 85.40% 79.30% rs28861531 GG CC, CG composite broad 0.80326 32.20% 96.80% 84.30% 73.10% rs2895215 TT, CT CC broad/narrow broad 0.06951 37.90% 97.60% 85.20% 81.50% rs2937395 CC TT, CT broad/narrow broad 0.00775 35.60% 96.80% 84.80% 75.00% rs3135391 GG AG broad/narrow broad 0.00031 44.80% 95.80% 86.60% 74.30% rs35831078 TT, CT broad/narrow/composite broad 0.00412 42.40% 96.40% 86.30% 75.80% rs3742228 GG, AG composite broad 0.42320 33.90% 96.80% 84.60% 74.10% rs3778630 — — broad/narrow broad 0.04590 35.00% 96.80% 84.60% 75.00% rs401618 — TT, CT broad/narrow broad 0.00439 37.30% 97.70% 85.40% 81.50% rs4148871 GG AG narrow broad 0.32856 31.00% 97.20% 83.70% 75.00% rs4255033 AA, AG GG narrow broad 0.16036 35.60% 96.80% 84.60% 75.00% rs4281882 CC AA broad/narrow/composite broad 0.00315 36.80% 97.20% 85.10% 77.80% rs4289164 GG AA broad/narrow/composite broad 0.00467 39.00% 96.70% 85.00% 76.70% rs4306478 AA AC, CC composite/broad broad 0.08034 37.30% 97.20% 85.00% 78.60% rs4343256 AA AG, GG composite/broad broad 0.06024 35.60% 97.30% 84.90% 77.80% rs4344916 AA CC broad/narrow/composite broad 0.00375 40.00% 97.30% 85.70% 80.00% rs4369324 TT GG, GT broad/narrow broad 0.00588 40.70% 96.80% 85.70% 77.40% rs4435429 AA GG broad/narrow/composite broad 0.00412 36.80% 97.30% 85.60% 77.80% rs4445746 GG AA, AG broad/narrow/composite broad 0.00687 37.90% 96.80% 85.50% 75.90% rs4466940 CC TT, CT broad/narrow/composite broad 0.01163 39.00% 96.20% 85.10% 74.20% rs4468448 CC TT, CT broad broad 0.08451 37.30% 96.80% 85.10% 75.90% rs4483642 TT CT composite broad 0.71368 33.90% 96.80% 84.60% 74.10% rs4565951 TT CT composite broad 0.67826 36.70% 96.30% 84.70% 73.30% rs4578835 AA GG broad/narrow/composite broad 0.00489 37.90% 96.80% 85.40% 75.90% rs4634524 CC, CT TT narrow broad 0.23175 47.10% 96.80% 87.00% 80.00% rs4799760 CC, CT — composite broad 0.30448 32.20% 96.80% 84.20% 73.10% rs4809955 AA GG, AG broad/narrow broad 0.00180 41.40% 96.30% 86.10% 75.00% rs4811492 TT AA broad/narrow broad 0.03358 40.40% 97.20% 86.00% 79.30% rs496486 AA CC, AC broad/narrow broad 0.00754 35.60% 96.80% 84.90% 75.00% rs552994 TT CC, CT broad/narrow broad 0.00597 37.30% 96.80% 85.20% 75.90% rs6015147 AA CC composite broad 0.31168 37.90% 96.30% 85.20% 73.30% rs6025923 TT CC composite broad 0.47714 26.50% 96.60% 84.80% 65.00% rs6025927 TT CC composite broad 0.16216 32.70% 96.60% 84.30% 72.00% rs6091820 CC TT, CT broad/narrow broad 0.00357 44.80% 97.30% 87.00% 81.30% rs6097782 CC TT, CT broad/narrow broad 0.00164 42.40% 97.30% 86.50% 80.60% rs6097790 AA CC, AC broad/narrow broad 0.00252 42.40% 96.30% 86.10% 75.80% rs6097793 CC, AC AA broad/narrow broad 0.00265 42.40% 95.90% 86.00% 73.50% rs6097797 TT, CT CC broad/narrow broad 0.00354 42.10% 95.80% 86.30% 72.70% rs6097801 GG, AG AA broad/narrow broad 0.00086 45.00% 95.90% 86.60% 75.00% rs6123749 CC GG composite broad 0.19902 35.60% 96.30% 84.60% 72.40% rs6543934 GG TT broad/narrow/composite broad 0.00389 39.00% 96.80% 85.40% 76.70% rs6558102 AA GG composite broad 0.85966 31.00% 96.30% 84.00% 69.20% rs656975 GG CC, CG broad/narrow broad 0.00805 35.60% 96.80% 84.90% 75.00% rs657302 TT CC, CT broad/narrow broad 0.01109 32.80% 96.80% 84.30% 73.10% rs6584894 AA, AG GG broad/narrow broad 0.00822 40.00% 97.00% 85.70% 78.60% rs660075 CC TT, CT broad/narrow broad 0.00805 35.60% 96.80% 84.90% 75.00% rs6713772 AA GG, AG composite broad 0.49662 30.50% 97.30% 83.90% 75.00% rs6909321 AA, AG — narrow broad 0.13191 32.20% 97.30% 84.30% 76.00% rs6971202 GG — broad/narrow broad 0.06288 35.60% 97.30% 84.90% 77.80% rs702355 AA, AG narrow broad 0.12523 34.50% 96.80% 84.60% 74.10% rs7080507 CC, CT — broad/narrow broad 0.01211 36.20% 96.70% 84.90% 75.00% rs7086707 AA, AC — broad/narrow broad 0.00572 39.00% 96.80% 85.40% 76.70% rs7093143 GG, GT — broad/narrow broad 0.00990 35.60% 96.80% 84.70% 75.00% rs7178587 — CC broad/narrow/composite broad 0.00158 33.90% 97.20% 84.80% 76.00% rs7180867 AA, AC — broad broad 0.09670 34.50% 96.30% 84.70% 71.40% rs7232734 TT CC, CT composite broad 0.77696 32.20% 96.40% 84.10% 70.40% rs7238006 CT CC composite broad 0.98175 28.60% 96.80% 84.10% 69.60% rs7244801 GG AA, AG composite broad 0.74039 33.30% 96.40% 84.80% 70.40% rs7317000 AA CC, AC composite/broad broad 0.01775 41.40% 96.70% 85.80% 77.40% rs751370 — CC broad/narrow/composite broad 0.00182 37.90% 96.80% 85.40% 75.90% rs752979 GG — broad/narrow broad 0.00011 39.00% 94.60% 85.40% 65.70% rs7619350 GG AA, AG broad/narrow/composite broad 0.03076 39.70% 97.20% 85.80% 79.30% rs7633210 TT — broad/narrow broad 0.07574 35.70% 97.60% 85.10% 80.00% rs7714122 TT CC, CT composite broad 0.46907 32.80% 96.80% 84.50% 73.10% rs7789703 CC, CT TT narrow broad 0.17605 33.90% 97.70% 85.00% 79.20% rs7803164 TT, CT CC broad/narrow broad 0.04543 38.60% 97.20% 85.80% 78.60% rs7806265 TT, AT AA broad/narrow broad 0.05396 35.60% 97.20% 84.80% 77.80% rs7916897 TT GG narrow broad 0.60788 48.10% 97.40% 87.60% 83.30% rs7955917 GG AA, AG composite broad 0.10317 37.30% 96.80% 85.30% 75.90% rs7963693 CC GG, CG composite broad 0.13295 37.90% 96.30% 85.40% 73.30% rs8099595 CC TT, CT composite broad 0.76429 31.00% 96.80% 84.10% 72.00% rs8118441 TT — broad/narrow broad 0.00186 42.40% 95.90% 86.10% 73.50% rs844602 CC — composite broad 0.95421 38.60% 97.10% 85.30% 78.60% rs844608 AA, AC CC composite broad 0.99091 36.80% 97.30% 85.60% 77.80% rs844610 AA, AC CC composite broad 0.99078 37.30% 97.30% 85.30% 78.60% rs844612 TT, CT CC broad/narrow broad 0.08601 35.60% 97.20% 84.80% 77.80% rs844626 GG, AG AA broad/narrow/composite broad 0.06588 36.20% 97.30% 85.20% 77.80% rs860722 CC, CG — broad broad 0.02761 35.60% 96.40% 84.80% 72.40% rs873216 GG AA broad/narrow broad 0.00074 44.10% 96.40% 86.70% 76.50% rs884266 CC TT composite broad 0.51236 30.40% 96.40% 84.60% 68.00% rs894857 GG AA, AG composite broad 0.93523 31.00% 96.80% 84.30% 72.00% rs913882 CC TT composite broad 0.14380 37.30% 96.40% 85.10% 73.30% rs9315048 GG — broad/narrow broad 0.00848 35.30% 98.10% 86.40% 81.80% rs9332420 GG AA broad/narrow/composite broad 0.00460 39.00% 96.80% 85.50% 76.70% rs933863 AA AG composite broad 0.64163 37.30% 96.40% 85.20% 73.30% rs933864 GG CG composite broad 0.88068 34.50% 96.80% 84.60% 74.10% rs9378319 TT CC, CT broad/narrow/composite broad 0.00955 39.00% 96.80% 85.60% 76.70% rs9378684 CC TT, CT broad/narrow/composite broad 0.00897 40.70% 96.40% 85.80% 75.00% rs9392358 AA GG, AG broad/narrow/composite broad 0.01177 39.70% 97.30% 85.90% 79.30% rs9405541 CC TT, CT broad/narrow/composite broad 0.00787 41.40% 96.80% 86.20% 77.40% rs9405546 CC TT, CT broad/narrow/composite broad 0.00765 41.40% 96.80% 86.10% 77.40% rs947603 CC, CT TT broad/narrow broad 0.03909 33.90% 96.80% 84.30% 74.10% rs948029 AA TT broad/narrow broad 0.00007 40.70% 94.50% 85.60% 66.70% rs948032 GG AA broad/narrow broad 0.00011 39.00% 94.60% 85.50% 65.70% rs949298 GG — broad/narrow broad 0.02138 39.30% 97.70% 86.30% 81.50% rs9508834 AA GG, AG broad/narrow/composite broad 0.00409 40.70% 96.40% 85.90% 75.00% rs9944913 CC TT, CT composite broad 0.99956 30.50% 96.80% 83.70% 72.00% rs9952995 TT CC, CT composite broad 0.98014 29.30% 96.80% 83.90% 70.80% rs998051 GG GT composite broad 0.65018 32.80% 96.70% 84.20% 73.10%

TABLE 16b Narrow and Composite Phenotypes positive negative response predicting predicting response SNP ID definition P-value specificity sensitivity value value definition P-value R Square rs1007328 narrow 0.00408 67.90% 71.90% 69.50% 70.40% composite 0.2050811449 0.250 rs10083547 narrow 0.10505 64.40% 71.40% 65.60% 70.40% composite 0.0001776096 0.269 rs10136012 narrow 0.22150 67.80% 58.90% 63.50% 63.50% composite 0.0000000122 0.293 rs10214633 narrow 0.09531 60.30% 68.40% 62.90% 66.00% composite 0.0016635019 0.269 rs10277267 narrow 0.01876 74.60% 63.00% 69.40% 68.80% composite 0.1624935610 0.253 rs1040194 narrow 0.07052 66.10% 73.20% 67.20% 72.20% composite 0.8333666744 0.246 rs1041897 narrow 0.23820 63.80% 61.40% 62.50% 62.70% composite 0.0000000016 0.297 rs10853605 narrow 0.00184 71.20% 73.20% 70.70% 73.70% composite 0.0192031795 0.257 rs10931091 narrow 0.63575 69.50% 60.00% 64.70% 65.10% composite 0.0002547344 0.267 rs10935015 narrow 0.06898 61.00% 71.40% 63.50% 69.20% composite 0.0348126442 0.253 rs10935016 narrow 0.05887 63.80% 71.90% 66.10% 69.80% composite 0.0870671686 0.252 rs10935019 narrow 0.08402 59.30% 73.20% 63.10% 70.00% composite 0.0707246889 0.253 rs10950359 narrow 0.00292 76.70% 67.30% 72.50% 71.90% composite 0.2165718898 0.236 rs10950371 narrow 0.00602 73.30% 71.90% 71.90% 73.30% composite 0.1803959905 0.252 rs10988087 narrow 0.71678 63.80% 67.90% 64.40% 67.30% composite 0.0000000031 0.305 rs11009827 narrow 0.13412 63.80% 69.60% 65.00% 68.50% composite 0.1112191369 0.250 rs11009835 narrow 0.17860 62.10% 67.90% 63.30% 66.70% composite 0.1131736185 0.250 rs11081859 narrow 0.80646 66.10% 56.40% 60.80% 61.90% composite 0.0006049647 0.266 rs11599624 narrow 0.00049 77.60% 70.90% 75.00% 73.80% composite 0.0695370150 0.240 rs11617134 narrow 0.11844 61.00% 69.60% 62.90% 67.90% composite 0.0000183303 0.273 rs11618546 narrow 0.73048 65.00% 59.60% 61.80% 62.90% composite 0.0000000276 0.290 rs11694344 narrow 0.07036 72.90% 67.90% 70.40% 70.50% composite 0.0676961332 0.251 rs11709339 narrow 0.06063 60.30% 71.40% 63.50% 68.60% composite 0.0748133928 0.252 rs11719825 narrow 0.05582 61.40% 75.50% 64.50% 72.90% composite 0.0278392113 0.257 rs11761457 narrow 0.01490 69.50% 71.40% 69.00% 71.90% composite 0.2595068530 0.250 rs11907046 narrow 0.01512 61.70% 71.90% 64.10% 69.80% composite 0.6134026928 0.246 rs12055694 narrow 0.05185 64.40% 70.90% 65.00% 70.40% composite 0.0006868573 0.276 rs12256889 narrow 0.00223 71.20% 70.20% 70.20% 71.20% composite 0.0048849245 0.261 rs1229542 narrow 0.22302 60.30% 70.20% 63.50% 67.30% composite 0.3948082568 0.256 rs1229553 narrow 0.14140 60.00% 66.70% 61.30% 65.50% composite 0.0011542566 0.264 rs1229555 narrow 0.14151 62.10% 66.70% 63.30% 65.50% composite 0.0006891767 0.270 rs1229558 narrow 0.35801 60.70% 69.60% 63.90% 66.70% composite 0.0004112907 0.276 rs1229562 narrow 0.10238 61.00% 71.40% 63.50% 69.20% composite 0.0013755214 0.263 rs1229563 narrow 0.14702 61.00% 69.60% 62.90% 67.90% composite 0.0016266164 0.266 rs1229564 narrow 0.10238 61.00% 71.40% 63.50% 69.20% composite 0.0011739273 0.263 rs1229568 narrow 0.11245 62.70% 69.10% 63.30% 68.50% composite 0.0015575098 0.262 rs12340584 narrow 0.70311 63.30% 53.60% 57.70% 59.40% composite 0.0000498360 0.271 rs1234567 narrow 0.14140 60.00% 66.70% 61.30% 65.50% composite 0.0014524348 0.262 rs1234947 narrow 0.14140 60.00% 66.70% 61.30% 65.50% composite 0.0013208828 0.262 rs1237625 narrow 0.10238 61.00% 71.40% 63.50% 69.20% composite 0.0010132650 0.263 rs12488259 narrow 0.05733 59.30% 75.00% 63.60% 71.40% composite 0.0677945040 0.263 rs12494606 narrow 0.08402 59.30% 73.20% 63.10% 70.00% composite 0.0649695076 0.251 rs12496278 narrow 0.05483 63.30% 71.40% 64.50% 70.40% composite 0.0901845657 0.252 rs12524041 narrow 0.00842 71.20% 64.30% 67.90% 67.70% composite 0.3664238633 0.247 rs12529764 narrow 0.01003 72.40% 66.10% 69.80% 68.90% composite 0.1210653349 0.250 rs12532459 narrow 0.02232 78.00% 69.60% 75.00% 73.00% composite 0.3350822048 0.254 rs12540494 narrow 0.01891 78.00% 70.90% 75.00% 74.20% composite 0.1669469791 0.257 rs12593600 narrow 0.09698 58.60% 71.40% 62.50% 68.00% composite 0.0001262140 0.270 rs12633010 narrow 0.05946 61.40% 73.70% 65.60% 70.00% composite 0.1145268012 0.261 rs12637073 narrow 0.05223 63.30% 71.90% 65.10% 70.40% composite 0.0967951660 0.252 rs12639443 narrow 0.01681 66.10% 71.90% 67.20% 70.90% composite 0.0664176972 0.252 rs1264423 narrow 0.02012 71.20% 62.50% 67.30% 66.70% composite 0.1631840283 0.249 rs1282540 narrow 0.07052 66.70% 73.20% 68.30% 71.70% composite 0.6472043851 0.248 rs1282546 narrow 0.07052 66.10% 73.20% 67.20% 72.20% composite 0.7524765779 0.245 rs12968586 narrow 0.94218 63.30% 58.90% 60.00% 62.30% composite 0.0004984226 0.265 rs1299325 narrow 0.07052 66.10% 73.20% 67.20% 72.20% composite 0.6954314594 0.247 rs13021482 narrow 0.21323 67.30% 64.60% 64.60% 67.30% composite 0.1249466723 0.270 rs13042992 narrow 0.60485 63.80% 65.50% 63.20% 66.10% composite 0.0000481220 0.271 rs1320648 narrow 0.00068 63.80% 76.80% 67.20% 74.00% composite 0.7343494667 0.248 rs13238613 narrow 0.00756 74.60% 71.40% 72.70% 73.30% composite 0.1828487368 0.251 rs13245980 narrow 0.02028 79.70% 64.80% 74.50% 71.20% composite 0.3356975007 0.254 rs1415557 narrow 0.01107 74.60% 69.60% 72.20% 72.10% composite 0.9001338769 0.246 rs1538123 narrow 0.00308 76.30% 69.60% 73.60% 72.60% composite 0.9139002586 0.245 rs1573706 narrow 0.01127 71.20% 73.20% 70.70% 73.70% composite 0.0013465086 0.262 rs1591661 narrow 0.00222 76.30% 69.60% 73.60% 72.60% composite 0.8782253468 0.252 rs1611185 narrow 0.01980 66.70% 69.60% 68.40% 67.90% composite 0.0722742172 0.181 rs1683691 narrow 0.43495 61.00% 66.10% 61.70% 65.50% composite 0.0019111927 0.263 rs16999008 narrow 0.01200 62.70% 73.70% 65.60% 71.20% composite 0.6105720761 0.246 rs17007730 narrow 0.58028 63.80% 60.00% 61.10% 62.70% composite 0.0000223406 0.272 rs17087180 narrow 0.18731 63.20% 69.60% 65.00% 67.90% composite 0.0000000001 0.304 rs17104665 narrow 0.86999 63.80% 58.20% 60.40% 61.70% composite 0.0000160623 0.276 rs17104742 narrow 0.86754 64.90% 64.30% 64.30% 64.90% composite 0.0000104133 0.281 rs17134651 narrow 0.05573 62.70% 71.40% 64.50% 69.80% composite 0.0008626073 0.265 rs17575455 narrow 0.10819 67.80% 67.90% 66.70% 69.00% composite 0.0000053597 0.277 rs17588454 narrow 0.07799 62.70% 73.20% 65.10% 71.20% composite 0.0000204321 0.274 rs17666347 narrow 0.97881 69.50% 56.40% 63.30% 63.10% composite 0.0000458865 0.271 rs17771939 narrow 0.00387 67.80% 73.20% 68.30% 72.70% composite 0.8848357851 0.248 rs17807327 narrow 0.00749 76.30% 61.80% 70.80% 68.20% composite 0.4731278635 0.248 rs17807445 narrow 0.02258 71.70% 62.50% 67.30% 67.20% composite 0.1064680457 0.251 rs1886308 narrow 0.01502 61.70% 68.40% 62.90% 67.30% composite 0.5133224539 0.247 rs1892974 narrow 0.00024 69.50% 77.20% 71.00% 75.90% composite 0.6406540443 0.248 rs1941973 narrow 0.49180 60.00% 60.70% 58.60% 62.10% composite 0.0000547438 0.271 rs2033471 narrow 0.84659 62.70% 61.40% 61.40% 62.70% composite 0.0000256482 0.273 rs2088713 narrow 0.04883 63.20% 69.80% 63.80% 69.20% composite 0.0893788014 0.243 rs214526 narrow 0.02901 69.00% 64.30% 66.70% 66.70% composite 0.3079668681 0.248 rs2155262 narrow 0.00031 67.80% 78.60% 69.80% 76.90% composite 0.5761110166 0.251 rs2177073 narrow 0.98321 66.70% 64.90% 64.90% 66.70% composite 0.0000025098 0.278 rs2187495 narrow 0.00015 68.30% 76.80% 69.40% 75.90% composite 0.6545016897 0.248 rs2277431 narrow 0.44554 65.00% 56.40% 59.60% 61.90% composite 0.0000450193 0.272 rs2305623 narrow 0.07317 59.30% 72.70% 62.50% 70.00% composite 0.1998120292 0.250 rs2374730 narrow 0.16022 63.30% 59.60% 60.70% 62.30% composite 0.0000019327 0.279 rs2461319 narrow 0.09884 72.90% 66.10% 69.80% 69.40% composite 0.9302610439 0.245 rs2487889 narrow 0.02308 61.00% 66.10% 61.70% 65.50% composite 0.4149154853 0.247 rs2487896 narrow 0.04167 63.30% 68.40% 63.90% 67.90% composite 0.4363548670 0.247 rs2508806 narrow 0.00301 65.50% 76.80% 69.40% 73.50% composite 0.6790301896 0.245 rs2511064 narrow 0.00577 66.10% 76.80% 68.30% 75.00% composite 0.6854191571 0.247 rs2521643 narrow 0.00682 73.30% 66.70% 70.40% 69.80% composite 0.8397645047 0.258 rs2521644 narrow 0.00303 77.60% 63.20% 73.50% 68.20% composite 0.7274741771 0.252 rs2530121 narrow 0.19485 60.30% 66.70% 62.30% 64.80% composite 0.0157723654 0.256 rs2530123 narrow 0.12073 59.60% 69.10% 62.30% 66.70% composite 0.0169136879 0.188 rs2685484 narrow 0.00273 76.70% 70.90% 73.60% 74.20% composite 0.8157058663 0.245 rs2722396 narrow 0.00818 72.90% 61.40% 68.60% 66.20% composite 0.6811200337 0.247 rs2722398 narrow 0.00682 73.30% 66.70% 70.40% 69.80% composite 0.7767461226 0.246 rs28861531 narrow 0.95650 61.00% 58.90% 58.90% 61.00% composite 0.0000000623 0.293 rs2895215 narrow 0.01525 74.10% 70.40% 71.70% 72.90% composite 0.1030119635 0.252 rs2937395 narrow 0.07058 66.10% 73.20% 67.20% 72.20% composite 0.7574277637 0.245 rs3135391 narrow 0.00362 67.20% 72.70% 67.80% 72.20% composite 0.7886848031 0.248 rs35831078 narrow 0.04785 62.70% 75.40% 66.20% 72.50% composite 0.0000393384 0.277 rs3742228 narrow 0.93310 59.30% 57.90% 57.90% 59.30% composite 0.0000001929 0.285 rs3778630 narrow 0.08732 70.00% 58.90% 64.70% 64.60% composite 0.1201100770 0.248 rs401618 narrow 0.01912 66.10% 64.90% 64.90% 66.10% composite 0.2527657227 0.255 rs4148871 narrow 0.00638 62.10% 76.80% 66.20% 73.50% composite 0.2213169699 0.254 rs4255033 narrow 0.02413 78.00% 66.10% 74.00% 70.80% composite 0.2641530455 0.248 rs4281882 narrow 0.02853 70.20% 70.90% 69.60% 71.40% composite 0.0055073684 0.260 rs4289164 narrow 0.05358 72.90% 67.90% 70.40% 70.50% composite 0.0284597023 0.262 rs4306478 narrow 0.32247 67.80% 67.30% 66.10% 69.00% composite 0.0001910761 0.270 rs4343256 narrow 0.18768 62.70% 66.10% 62.70% 66.10% composite 0.0001403301 0.268 rs4344916 narrow 0.04203 75.00% 67.90% 71.70% 71.40% composite 0.0109294485 0.257 rs4369324 narrow 0.00308 76.30% 69.60% 73.60% 72.60% composite 0.9220257544 0.247 rs4435429 narrow 0.02361 71.90% 71.90% 71.90% 71.90% composite 0.0049301543 0.245 rs4445746 narrow 0.00937 63.80% 80.40% 68.20% 77.10% composite 0.0853642663 0.252 rs4466940 narrow 0.02967 64.40% 75.00% 66.70% 73.10% composite 0.0124998039 0.259 rs4468448 narrow 0.11642 62.70% 73.20% 65.10% 71.20% composite 0.1384180377 0.250 rs4483642 narrow 0.29453 62.70% 59.60% 60.70% 61.70% composite 0.0000146605 0.280 rs4565951 narrow 0.48217 65.00% 57.10% 60.40% 61.90% composite 0.0001718130 0.256 rs4578835 narrow 0.04990 72.40% 67.90% 70.40% 70.00% composite 0.0116559644 0.262 rs4634524 narrow 0.03289 80.40% 68.90% 75.60% 74.50% composite 0.3275992309 0.265 rs4799760 narrow 0.72214 64.40% 64.30% 63.20% 65.50% composite 0.0003882703 0.265 rs4809955 narrow 0.01531 60.30% 71.40% 63.50% 68.60% composite 0.6111078532 0.175 rs4811492 narrow 0.03685 64.90% 75.00% 67.70% 72.50% composite 0.4190188183 0.251 rs496486 narrow 0.07058 66.10% 73.20% 67.20% 72.20% composite 0.7537962256 0.246 rs552994 narrow 0.07052 66.10% 73.20% 67.20% 72.20% composite 0.7714754149 0.246 rs6015147 narrow 0.95445 69.00% 63.00% 65.40% 66.70% composite 0.0000005811 0.222 rs6025923 narrow 0.74123 61.20% 66.70% 65.50% 62.50% composite 0.0000238011 0.277 rs6025927 narrow 0.99741 63.60% 66.70% 64.30% 66.00% composite 0.0001156133 0.176 rs6091820 narrow 0.03230 60.30% 71.90% 64.10% 68.60% composite 0.7102878021 0.248 rs6097782 narrow 0.01874 61.00% 71.90% 64.10% 69.20% composite 0.6232805036 0.246 rs6097790 narrow 0.02179 62.70% 69.60% 63.90% 68.50% composite 0.5460615394 0.246 rs6097793 narrow 0.02179 62.70% 69.60% 63.90% 68.50% composite 0.5534389737 0.246 rs6097797 narrow 0.01685 63.20% 71.40% 65.60% 69.20% composite 0.6656843066 0.251 rs6097801 narrow 0.01512 61.70% 71.90% 64.10% 69.80% composite 0.7551179553 0.247 rs6123749 narrow 0.90554 66.10% 64.30% 64.30% 66.10% composite 0.0000013456 0.280 rs6543934 narrow 0.06219 72.90% 65.50% 69.20% 69.40% composite 0.0600136502 0.253 rs6558102 narrow 0.64731 63.80% 67.90% 64.40% 67.30% composite 0.0000008558 0.283 rs656975 narrow 0.07052 66.10% 73.20% 67.20% 72.20% composite 0.7480314538 0.246 rs657302 narrow 0.08729 67.20% 74.50% 68.30% 73.60% composite 0.7230354724 0.246 rs6584894 narrow 0.01294 78.20% 67.30% 73.30% 72.90% composite 0.6868242683 0.232 rs660075 narrow 0.07058 66.10% 73.20% 67.20% 72.20% composite 0.7494347642 0.246 rs6713772 narrow 0.71395 62.70% 60.70% 60.70% 62.70% composite 0.0000002337 0.284 rs6909321 narrow 0.06543 71.20% 62.50% 67.30% 66.70% composite 0.1096157565 0.251 rs6971202 narrow 0.00663 76.30% 61.80% 70.80% 68.20% composite 0.6839825085 0.246 rs702355 narrow 0.06082 75.90% 60.00% 70.20% 66.70% composite 0.1579609518 0.250 rs7080507 narrow 0.00600 75.90% 73.20% 74.50% 74.60% composite 0.8019114252 0.247 rs7086707 narrow 0.00500 74.60% 69.60% 72.20% 72.10% composite 0.9233502939 0.246 rs7093143 narrow 0.00961 74.60% 68.50% 71.20% 72.10% composite 0.8860702002 0.246 rs7178587 narrow 0.03385 62.50% 67.30% 63.80% 66.00% composite 0.0678997453 0.242 rs7180867 narrow 0.16354 65.50% 66.10% 64.90% 66.70% composite 0.1819945701 0.254 rs7232734 narrow 0.90058 66.10% 58.90% 62.30% 62.90% composite 0.0002842721 0.272 rs7238006 narrow 0.52288 67.90% 66.10% 67.30% 66.70% composite 0.0079837106 0.257 rs7244801 narrow 0.84726 61.40% 69.60% 63.90% 67.30% composite 0.0002560514 0.273 rs7317000 narrow 0.21018 56.90% 71.90% 62.10% 67.30% composite 0.0001141326 0.269 rs751370 narrow 0.00859 67.20% 70.40% 66.70% 70.90% composite 0.0185234836 0.265 rs752979 narrow 0.00046 64.40% 77.20% 67.70% 74.50% composite 0.7360004970 0.252 rs7619350 narrow 0.06063 60.30% 71.40% 63.50% 68.60% composite 0.0851490259 0.251 rs7633210 narrow 0.05618 67.90% 71.70% 67.90% 71.70% composite 0.5617924237 0.260 rs7714122 narrow 0.20804 65.50% 67.30% 64.90% 67.90% composite 0.0027785239 0.279 rs7789703 narrow 0.07183 66.10% 65.40% 64.20% 67.30% composite 0.3143051576 0.247 rs7803164 narrow 0.01264 71.90% 69.60% 70.90% 70.70% composite 0.2698212215 0.254 rs7806265 narrow 0.00718 74.60% 71.90% 73.20% 73.30% composite 0.1586648076 0.184 rs7916897 narrow 0.05231 76.90% 76.00% 76.00% 76.90% composite 0.1481399148 0.261 rs7955917 narrow 0.29246 55.90% 66.10% 58.70% 63.50% composite 0.0002623828 0.270 rs7963693 narrow 0.39632 55.20% 66.70% 59.40% 62.70% composite 0.0001330852 0.275 rs8099595 narrow 0.90747 63.80% 62.50% 62.50% 63.80% composite 0.0003997105 0.265 rs8118441 narrow 0.02179 62.70% 69.60% 63.90% 68.50% composite 0.5282969814 0.246 rs844602 narrow 0.96474 75.40% 59.30% 69.60% 66.20% composite 0.0172114588 0.260 rs844608 narrow 0.99421 75.40% 58.90% 70.20% 65.20% composite 0.0505344333 0.260 rs844610 narrow 0.99419 74.60% 59.60% 69.40% 65.70% composite 0.0385055827 0.260 rs844612 narrow 0.03225 74.60% 60.00% 68.80% 66.70% composite 0.1289376035 0.251 rs844626 narrow 0.02163 77.60% 59.30% 71.10% 67.20% composite 0.0447630201 0.262 rs860722 narrow 0.19021 67.80% 69.60% 67.20% 70.20% composite 0.5902077325 0.254 rs873216 narrow 0.01102 62.70% 71.90% 65.10% 69.80% composite 0.5672550674 0.253 rs884266 narrow 0.97903 58.90% 63.20% 61.00% 61.10% composite 0.0004725485 0.269 rs894857 narrow 0.82796 62.10% 66.70% 63.30% 65.50% composite 0.0000000002 0.308 rs913882 narrow 0.93461 66.10% 64.30% 64.30% 66.10% composite 0.0000000055 0.294 rs9315048 narrow 0.00172 64.70% 82.10% 71.90% 76.70% composite 0.3705256604 0.233 rs9332420 narrow 0.05980 71.20% 66.10% 68.50% 68.90% composite 0.0331420821 0.255 rs933863 narrow 0.26426 62.70% 59.60% 60.70% 61.70% composite 0.0000047280 0.283 rs933864 narrow 0.69839 62.10% 64.30% 62.10% 64.30% composite 0.0956803375 0.186 rs9378319 narrow 0.05573 62.70% 71.40% 64.50% 69.80% composite 0.0008169610 0.265 rs9378684 narrow 0.03293 64.40% 69.60% 65.00% 69.10% composite 0.0013903659 0.262 rs9392358 narrow 0.08140 62.10% 72.70% 64.50% 70.60% composite 0.0006766609 0.265 rs9405541 narrow 0.04542 65.50% 71.40% 66.70% 70.40% composite 0.0003778692 0.271 rs9405546 narrow 0.05023 65.50% 70.90% 66.10% 70.40% composite 0.0003198511 0.272 rs947603 narrow 0.00687 74.60% 69.60% 72.20% 72.10% composite 0.2358314299 0.255 rs948029 narrow 0.00046 64.40% 77.20% 67.70% 74.50% composite 0.7136661558 0.252 rs948032 narrow 0.00046 64.40% 77.20% 67.70% 74.50% composite 0.7162224264 0.254 rs949298 narrow 0.01576 62.50% 78.90% 68.20% 74.50% composite 0.6959498100 0.252 rs9508834 narrow 0.00833 66.10% 76.80% 68.30% 75.00% composite 0.0072643808 0.280 rs9944913 narrow 0.86061 69.50% 60.70% 65.40% 65.10% composite 0.0000151282 0.284 rs9952995 narrow 0.77141 65.50% 69.60% 66.10% 69.10% composite 0.0001815576 0.273 rs998051 narrow 0.65765 65.50% 61.80% 63.00% 64.40% composite 0.0000059311 0.283 Prediction Models Using GWAS Significant SNPs and Tagged SNPs

Additional models were established based on 30 SNPs that were chosen out of the 201 SNPs listed in table 16, based on having low p-values. The 30 SNPs chosen were rs947603, rs1007328, rs1573706, rs2177073, rs2487896, rs2511064, rs2521644, rs3135391, rs4148871, rs4343256, rs4344916, rs4369324, rs4445746, rs6097801, rs9508834, rs9944913, rs10853605, rs10931091, rs10950359, rs10988087, rs11599624, rs11617134, rs12256889, rs12639443, rs13042992, rs13238613, rs17087180, rs17575455, rs17771939 and rs17807327.

A pool of model candidates was generated based on combinatorial optimization heuristics. Selected models were chosen based on low value of Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC) and low number of SNPs. The model chosen in the previous step went through “Leave one out” cross validation—searching for high values of the Area Under the ROC curve.

TABLE 17 Model SNPs in model GM1003 rs11599624 rs12639443 rs13042992 rs13238613 rs17087180 rs17771939 rs17807327 rs2487896 rs3135391 rs4148871 rs4343256 rs4344916 rs9508834 GM1006 rs12256889 rs12639443 rs13238613 rs1573706 rs17087180 rs17771939 rs17807327 rs2487896 rs4343256 rs4344916 rs4369324 rs4445746 rs9944913 GM1011 rs10988087 rs12639443 rs13042992 rs13238613 rs1573706 rs17087180 rs17771939 rs17807327 rs4148871 rs4344916 rs6097801 rs9508834 GM1012 rs10988087 rs12256889 rs12639443 rs17087180 rs17771939 rs2177073 rs2521644 rs4344916 rs4369324 rs6097801 rs9508834 rs9944913 GM2004 rs10988087 rs11617134 rs12639443 rs13042992 rs17087180 rs17771939 rs17807327 rs2487896 rs4148871 rs4344916 rs4445746 rs6097801 rs9508834 GM2014 rs10988087 rs11617134 rs12639443 rs13042992 rs17087180 rs17771939 rs17807327 rs2487896 rs2521644 rs4148871 rs4344916 rs4445746 rs6097801 GM2022 rs10988087 rs12256889 rs12639443 rs17087180 rs17771939 rs17807327 rs2487896 rs4148871 rs4344916 rs6097801 rs9508834 GM2027 rs1007328 rs11617134 rs12639443 rs13238613 rs1573706 rs17087180 rs17771939 rs17807327 rs4343256 rs4344916 rs9508834 rs9944913 GM2043 rs12639443 rs17087180 rs17771939 rs17807327 rs2487896 rs4148871 rs4343256 rs4344916 rs4369324 rs4445746 rs6097801 rs9508834 rs9944913 GM2068 rs11617134 rs12639443 rs17087180 rs17771939 rs17807327 rs2487896 rs3135391 rs4148871 rs4344916 rs4369324 rs6097801 rs9508834 rs9944913 GM2090 rs10988087 rs12639443 rs13238613 rs17087180 rs17771939 rs2487896 rs4148871 rs4343256 rs4344916 rs9508834 GM2094 rs11617134 rs12256889 rs12639443 rs13042992 rs17087180 rs17771939 rs17807327 rs2177073 rs2487896 rs4343256 rs4344916 rs6097801 rs9508834 GM2277 rs10950359 rs11617134 rs12639443 rs17087180 rs17771939 rs2487896 rs2511064 rs3135391 rs4148871 rs4343256 rs4344916 rs9508834 rs9944913 GM2338 rs12256889 rs12639443 rs13042992 rs17087180 rs17771939 rs17807327 rs2487896 rs2521644 rs4344916 rs6097801 GM3102 rs10950359 rs10988087 rs11599624 rs12256889 rs12639443 rs13042992 rs17087180 rs17771939 rs17807327 rs2521644 rs3135391 rs4344916 rs9508834 GM3150 rs1007328 rs10950359 rs12256889 rs12639443 rs13042992 rs1573706 rs17087180 rs17771939 rs17807327 rs4343256 rs4344916 rs947603 rs9508834 GM3332 rs11599624 rs12256889 rs12639443 rs1573706 rs17087180 rs17771939 rs17807327 rs2177073 rs2487896 rs4344916 rs6097801 rs9508834 rs9944913

The response probability of a specific patient was calculated according to each model. Following the genotyping of the patient at the relevant SNPs, the values of the SNPs were receded to numeric values as described in the following tables (18a-s):

TABLE 18a rs1007328 Recoded value CC 0 CT 1 TT 2

TABLE 18b rs10950359 Recoded value AA 0 AG 1 GG 2

TABLE 18c rs10988087 Recoded value AA 0 AG 1 GG 1

TABLE 18d rs11617134 Recoded value CC 0 CT 1 TT 2

TABLE 18e rs12256889 Recoded value AA 0 AC 1 CC 2

TABLE 18f rs13042992 Recoded value TT 0 GG 1 GT 1

TABLE 18g rs13238613 Recoded value CC 0 CT 1 TT 2

TABLE 18h rs17087180 Recoded value AA 0 AG 1 GG 2

TABLE 18i rs2177073 Recoded value CC 0 AA 1 AC 1

TABLE 18j rs2511064 Recoded value AA 0 AG 1 GG 2

TABLE 18k rs2521644 Recoded value CC 0 CT 1 TT 2

TABLE 18l rs4343256 Recoded value AA 0 AG 1 GG 2

TABLE 18m rs4344916 Recoded value AA 0 AC 1 CC 2

TABLE 18n rs4369324 Recoded value GG 0 GT 1 TT 2

TABLE 18o rs4445746 Recoded value AA 0 AG 1 GG 2

TABLE 18p Recoded rs6097801 value AA 0 AG 1 GG 2

TABLE 18q Recoded rs947603 value CC 0 CT 1 TT 2

TABLE 18r Recoded rs9508834 value AA 0 AG 1 GG 2

TABLE 18s Recoded rs9944913 value CC 0 CT 1 TT 1

For each of the following SNPs define two new numeric variables as described in the following tables (19a-h):

TABLE 19a rs11599624 rs11599624_AA rs11599624_AG AA 1 0 AG 0 1 GG −1 −1

TABLE 19b rs12639443 rs12639443_CC rs12639443_CT CC 1 0 CT 0 1 TT −1 −1

TABLE 19c rs1573706 rs1573706_CC rs1573706_CT CC 1 0 CT 0 1 TT −1 −1

TABLE 19d rs17771939 rs17771939_CC rs17771939_CT CC 1 0 CT 0 1 TT −1 −1

TABLE 19e rs17807327 rs17807327_AA rs17807327_AC AA 1 0 AC 0 1 CC −1 −1

TABLE 19f rs2487896 rs2487896_AA rs2487896_AG AA 1 0 AG 0 1 GG −1 −1

TABLE 19g rs3135391 rs3135391_AA rs3135391_AG AA 1 0 AG 0 1 GG −1 −1

TABLE 19h rs4148871 rs4148871_AA rs4148871_AG AA 1 0 AG 0 1 GG −1 −1

βX was calculated by multiplying the recoded value of each of the defined numeric variables by the coefficient in the table each table defines a model):

TABLE 20 GM1003 model parameterization Variable coefficient Intercept 9.3288 rs11599624_AA −0.6054 rs11599624_AG 1.8340 rs12639443_CC 1.6819 rs12639443_CT −5.2952 rs13042992 −2.1062 rs13238613 −1.6323 rs17087180 −5.6010 rs17771939_CC −8.0785 rs17771939_CT 2.0671 rs17807327_AA −4.1034 rs17807327_AC 7.1312 rs2487896_AA 3.4005 rs2487896_AG −4.5188 rs3135391_AA 1.1864 rs3135391_AG 0.4869 rs4148871_AA −3.8189 rs4148871_AG 2.5264 rs4343256 −6.9897 rs4344916 −4.3873 rs9508834 −4.0794

TABLE 21 GM1006 model parameterization variable coefficient Intercept 0.8934 rs12256889 −0.3642 rs12639443_CC 0.3262 rs12639443_CT −2.8743 rs13238613 −1.2795 rs1573706_CC 0.2463 rs1573706_CT −1.3858 rs17087180 −1.3097 rs17771939_CC −3.1145 rs17771939_CT 0.5409 rs17807327_AA −3.2420 rs17807327_AC 4.8105 rs2487896_AA −1.4076 rs2487896_AG −1.0467 rs4343256 −4.0890 rs4344916 −2.4887 rs4369324 1.7375 rs4445746 2.8535 rs9944913 −1.8489

TABLE 22 GM1011 model parameterization variable coefficient Intercept 6.2733 rs10988087 −1.6114 rs12639443_CC 1.3759 rs12639443_CT −1.4160 rs13042992 −1.9210 rs13238613 −2.9116 rs1573706_CC 1.2609 rs1573706_CT −0.7329 rs17087180 −5.9857 rs17771939_CC −3.3508 rs17771939_CT 1.2529 rs17807327_AA −3.0312 rs17807327_AC 1.9158 rs4148871_AA −0.5022 rs4148871_AG 0.4602 rs4344916 −2.3358 rs6097801 1.3835 rs9508834 −2.8596

TABLE 23 GM1012 model parameterization variable coefficient Intercept 4.8013 rs10988087 −1.3216 rs12256889 −1.4875 rs12639443_CC 0.8026 rs12639443_CT −2.1054 rs17087180 −0.9015 rs17771939_CC −4.1661 rs17771939_CT 1.2859 rs2177073 0.7441 rs2521644 −1.6096 rs4344916 −2.1699 rs4369324 1.5320 rs6097801 0.4036 rs9508834 −2.7916 rs9944913 −2.3396

TABLE 24 GM2004 model parameterization variable coefficient Intercept −2.4137 rs10988087 −3.2236 rs11617134 3.2842 rs12639443_CC 2.5129 rs12639443_CT −5.6785 rs13042992 −2.2749 rs17087180 −7.7618 rs17771939_CC −7.4691 rs17771939_CT 1.7498 rs17807327_AA −3.8468 rs17807327_AC 6.1901 rs2487896_AA 3.2967 rs2487896_AG −5.6031 rs4148871_AA −3.4591 rs4148871_AG 2.3145 rs4344916 −4.3650 rs4445746 −0.7965 rs6097801 1.5690 rs9508834 −5.2894

TABLE 25 GM2014 model parameterization variable coefficient Intercept −7.8077 rs10988087 −2.6273 rs11617134 2.8140 rs12639443_CC 2.6274 rs12639443_CT −5.5577 rs13042992 −2.6555 rs17087180 −8.5303 rs17771939_CC −7.6788 rs17771939_CT 2.1630 rs17807327_AA −3.9942 rs17807327_AC 5.4647 rs2487896_AA 2.5228 rs2487896_AG −5.2338 rs2521644 −1.0118 rs4148871_AA −2.9546 rs4148871_AG 1.6983 rs4344916 −4.6078 rs4445746 3.3039 rs6097801 0.9950

TABLE 26 GM2022 model parameterization variable coefficient Intercept 0.7315 rs10988087 −2.7341 rs12256889 −0.6341 rs12639443_CC 2.2261 rs12639443_CT −3.7174 rs17087180 −3.8342 rs17771939_CC −4.7874 rs17771939_CT 0.9707 rs17807327_AA −2.3173 rs17807327_AC 4.6672 rs2487896_AA 1.4718 rs2487896_AG −3.3924 rs4148871_AA −2.0086 rs4148871_AG 0.8390 rs4344916 −3.3546 rs6097801 1.6744 rs9508834 −3.6073

TABLE 27 GM2027 model parameterization variable coefficient Intercept 6.1931 rs1007328 1.0823 rs11617134 1.0945 rs12639443_CC 0.5046 rs12639443_CT −2.5608 rs13238613 −2.2037 rs1573706_CC 0.4573 rs1573706_CT −1.0221 rs17087180 −6.2114 rs17771939_CC −2.8678 rs17771939_CT 1.0193 rs17807327_AA −3.6846 rs17807327_AC 1.0093 rs4343256 −4.1274 rs4344916 −1.7464 rs9508834 −3.2225 rs9944913 −1.0139

TABLE 28 GM2043 model parameterization variable coefficient Intercept 0.9415 rs12639443_CC 0.5518 rs12639443_CT −4.7541 rs17087180 −4.2930 rs17771939_CC −5.9952 rs17771939_CT 1.4480 rs17807327_AA −3.7064 rs17807327_AC 4.9288 rs2487896_AA 1.3741 rs2487896_AG −3.4768 rs4148871_AA −2.5161 rs4148871_AG 1.7311 rs4343256 −4.8515 rs4344916 −3.2447 rs4369324 1.6196 rs4445746 0.3546 rs6097801 1.7405 rs9508834 −3.8363 rs9944913 −2.3385

TABLE 29 GM2068 model parameterization variable coefficient Intercept −10.0845 rs11617134 4.5538 rs12639443_CC 2.7799 rs12639443_CT −5.9539 rs17087180 −3.3532 rs17771939_CC −8.8437 rs17771939_CT 1.4087 rs17807327_AA −3.3124 rs17807327_AC 7.3851 rs2487896_AA 1.8417 rs2487896_AG −5.5723 rs3135391_AA 2.6828 rs3135391_AG −0.4052 rs4148871_AA −4.3161 rs4148871_AG 2.2073 rs4344916 −4.6260 rs4369324 2.0398 rs6097801 2.3816 rs9508834 −5.9421 rs9944913 −2.3240

TABLE 30 GM2090 model parameterization variable coefficient Intercept 4.0746 rs10988087 −2.0102 rs12639443_CC 1.6253 rs12639443_CT −3.1638 rs13238613 −1.6126 rs17087180 −2.6288 rs17771939_CC −4.5000 rs17771939_CT 0.9317 rs2487896_AA 1.0289 rs2487896_AG −2.7833 rs4148871_AA −1.7042 rs4148871_AG 0.4143 rs4343256 −1.5111 rs4344916 −3.9136 rs9508834 −3.2171

TABLE 31 GM2094 model parameterization variable coefficient Intercept −0.5847 rs11617134 2.6429 rs12256889 −0.6230 rs12639443_CC 0.9349 rs12639443_CT −3.4318 rs13042992 −1.1986 rs17087180 −3.1618 rs17771939_CC −4.0279 rs17771939_CT 0.7481 rs17807327_AA −2.9966 rs17807327_AC 3.5249 rs2177073 −1.0156 rs2487896_AA 0.6515 rs2487896_AG −2.4396 rs4343256 −3.2118 rs4344916 −2.6570 rs6097801 0.7221 rs9508834 −3.3025

TABLE 32 GM2277 model parameterization variable coefficient Intercept −8.0820 rs10950359 0.6756 rs11617134 3.0151 rs12639443_CC 1.8613 rs12639443_CT −4.7429 rs17087180 −3.0913 rs17771939_CC −5.5319 rs17771939_CT 1.5306 rs2487896_AA 1.9046 rs2487896_AG −4.3657 rs2511064 2.0087 rs3135391_AA 1.3667 rs3135391_AG 0.1182 rs4148871_AA −3.7287 rs4148871_AG 0.7481 rs4343256 −1.2743 rs4344916 −4.1012 rs9508834 −2.9978 rs9944913 −2.3903

TABLE 33 GM2338 model parameterization variable coefficient Intercept 4.9303 rs12256889 −1.1920 rs12639443_CC 1.6753 rs12639443_CT −2.6864 rs13042992 −2.9155 rs17087180 −1.7977 rs17771939_CC −4.7042 rs17771939_CT 1.4442 rs17807327_AA −2.2426 rs17807327_AC 3.9474 rs2487896_AA −0.0709 rs2487896_AG −2.2441 rs2521644 −1.8304 rs4344916 −2.8265 rs6097801 0.4595

TABLE 34 GM3102 model parameterization variable coefficient Intercept 5.5127 rs10950359 1.4764 rs10988087 −2.9752 rs11599624_AA −0.6179 rs11599624_AG 2.8171 rs12256889 −1.1438 rs12639443_CC 2.0266 rs12639443_CT −2.4140 rs13042992 −1.3091 rs17087180 −4.0442 rs17771939_CC −3.7615 rs17771939_CT 1.0481 rs17807327_AA −1.3721 rs17807327_AC 2.5104 rs2521644 −1.6019 rs3135391_AA −1.4040 rs3135391_AG 0.7262 rs4344916 −2.4904 rs9508834 −2.7692

TABLE 35 GM3150 model parameterization variable coefficient Intercept 4.7936 rs1007328 1.5777 rs10950359 1.7864 rs12256889 −0.4262 rs12639443_CC 1.5767 rs12639443_CT −2.3687 rs13042992 −1.5894 rs1573706_CC 0.4357 rs1573706_CT −1.4587 rs17087180 −3.4853 rs17771939_CC −2.4489 rs17771939_CT 0.5208 rs17807327_AA −3.1700 rs17807327_AC 2.8718 rs4343256 −2.7644 rs4344916 −2.0371 rs947603 −1.0418 rs9508834 −3.1861

TABLE 36 GM3332 model parameterization variable coefficient Intercept 3.9516 rs11599624_AA −1.1461 rs11599624_AG 2.2491 rs12256889 −0.7295 rs12639443_CC 0.6782 rs12639443_CT −2.7278 rs1573706_CC 1.1868 rs1573706_CT −1.4399 rs17087180 −1.5211 rs17771939_CC −3.5821 rs17771939_CT 0.5404 rs17807327_AA −2.0945 rs17807327_AC 4.1007 rs2177073 −1.0741 rs2487896_AA −0.1642 rs2487896_AG −1.8886 rs4344916 −2.5787 rs6097801 0.4844 rs9508834 −3.0143 rs9944913 −1.5636

The response probability was calculated using the formula:

${P({Response})} = \frac{{\mathbb{e}}^{\beta\; X}}{1 + {\mathbb{e}}^{\beta\; X}}$

We have noticed that the following four SNPs were common to all models: rs4344916, rs12639443, rs17087180 and rs17771939. Two additional SNPs were common to at least 25/30 models containing the four SNPs described above: rs9508834 and rs17807327. Therefore, it would be appreciated by a person skilled in the art that sets of SNPs comprising rs4344916, rs12639443, rs17087180 and rs17771939 are expected to constitute models which are effective in predicting response to GA. The models may include other SNPs in addition to rs4344916, rs12639443, rs17087180 and rs17771939, including rs9508834, rs17807327, both, or other SNPs.

The models were retrospectively applied to the full cohort of 599 FORTE patients using different predictive thresholds. The ratios between the Annualized Relapse Rate (ARR) of genetically predicted responder patients (R) compared to the average ARR in genetically predicted non-responder patients (NR), and the ratios between the average ARE observed in the genetically predicted responder patients (R) compared to average ARR in the whole study population (All), according to each predictive threshold or two predictive thresholds, are presented in table 37. Table 37a shows data for models FM1, FM2, FM1a and GM1003, table 37b shows data for models GM1006, GM1011, GM1012 and GM2004, table 37c shows data for models GM2014, GM2022, GM2027 and 2043, table 37d shows data for models GM2068, GM2090, GM2094 and GM2277, and table 37e shows data for models GM2338, GM3102, GM3150 and GM3332.

Applying the 0.8 threshold for the FM1 model (presented in tables 5-7) in the FORTE cohort as well as two other cohorts (European/Canadian study and CORAL), we found that the average ARR in the GA-treated patients that were genetically predicted as responders in the FORTE and in the European/Canadian study was 76% and 81% lower, respectively, than in patients predicted as MR and 64% and 77% lower, respectively, than in the whole study population. In comparison, the average ARR in either placebo-treated patients or non treated patients (from European/Canadian study and CORAL, respectively) genetically predicted as responders was −7% and 26% lower, respectively, than in patients predicted as Non-Responders and 10% and 11% lower than in the whole study population. The reduction in average ARR by GA over placebo-treated patients in the responders population in the European/Canadian study was 79%.

TABLE 37 The Annualized Relapse Rate (ARR) average in all subjects of the FORTE trial compared to ARR average in genetically predicted responders (R) and non-responders (NR). ARR - Annual Relapse Rate average as calculated for each genetically defined sub-population Risk The ratio between ARR observed in the genetically predicted Ratio responders (R) compared to the ARR in genetically predicted non-responders (NR) ARR The ratio between ARR observed in the genetically predicted Vs all super responders (R) compared to ARR in the whole study population (All) UD = undefined

TABLE 37a Models FM1, FM2, FM1a and GM1003 Model: FM1 FM2 FM1a GM1003 response Risk ARR Risk ARR Risk ARR Risk ARR threshold prediction ARR Ratio Vs. all ARR Ratio Vs. all ARR Ratio Vs. all ARR Ratio Vs. all NA All 0.241 100% 0.245 100% 0.245 100% 0.26 100%   0-0.1 NR 0.482 35% 200% 0.531 41% 217% 0.419 50% 171% 0.502 35% 193% 0.1-1   R 0.167 69% 0.217 89% 0.211 86% 1.176 67%   0-0.2 NR 0.423 37% 176% 0.533 37% 218% 0.433 43% 177% 0.509 31% 195% 0.2-1   R 0.157 65% 0.195 80% 0.185 75% 0.16 61%   0-0.3 NR 0.427 32% 177% 0.485 37% 198% 0.415 44% 169% 0.51 29% 196% 0.3-1   R 0.135 56% 0.178 73% 0.182 74% 0.146 56%   0-0.4 NR 0.424 32% 176% 0.37 48% 151% 0.412 40% 168% 0.504 29% 193% 0.4-1   R 0.134 55% 0.178 73% 0.164 67% 0.145 56%   0-0.5 NR 0.423 32% 175% 0.344 51% 141% 0.343 46% 140% 0.491 29% 189% 0.5-1   R 0.134 56% 0.174 71% 0.159 65% 0.14 54%   0-0.6 NR 0.412 33% 171% 0.349 46% 143% 0.334 46% 136% 0.475 28% 182% 0.6-1   R 0.136 56% 0.16 65% 0.154 63% 0.132 51%   0-0.7 NR 0.383 34% 159% 0.332 37% 135% 0.333 40% 136% 0.468 28% 180% 0.7-1   R 0.132 55% 0.122 50% 0.138 54% 0.131 50%   0-0.8 NR 0.361 24% 150% 0.289 44% 118% 0.322 40% 131% 0.457 27% 175% 0.8-1   R 0.088 36% 0.126 52% 0.129 53% 0.125 48%   0-0.9 NR 0.318 31% 132% 0.259 49% 106% 0.302 36% 123% 0.438 28% 168% 0.9-1   R 0.098 41% 0.127 52% 0.11 45% 1.123 47%   0-0.1 NR 0.481 33% 200% 0.53 37% 217% 0.42 44% 171% 0.5 32% 192% 0.2-1   R 0.157 65% 0.195 80% 0.185 75% 0.16 61% 0.1-0.2 UD 0.252 105% 0.538 220% 0.463 189% 0.592 227%   0-0.1 NR 0.481 28% 200% 0.533 33% 218% 0.42 43% 171% 0.501 29% 193% 0.3-1   R 0.135 56% 0.178 73% 0.182 74% 0.146 56% 0.1-0.3 UD 0.326 135% 0.453 185% 0.408 166% 0.549 211%   0-0.1 NR 0.483 28% 200% 0.533 33% 218% 0.421 39% 171% 0.501 29% 193% 0.4-1   R 0.134 56% 0.178 73% 0.164 67% 0.145 56% 0.1-0.4 UD 0.322 134% 0.315 129% 0.404 165% 0.513 197%   0-0.1 NR 0.482 28% 200% 0.533 33% 217% 0.42 38% 171% 0.501 28% 192% 0.5-1   R 0.134 56% 0.174 71% 0.16 65% 0.14 54% 0.1-0.5 UD 0.319 132% 0.293 120% 0.299 122% 0.462 177%   0-0.1 NR 0.482 28% 200% 0.533 30% 218% 0.419 37% 171% 0.503 26% 193% 0.6-1   R 0.136 56% 0.16 65% 0.154 63% 0.132 51% 0.1-0.6 UD 0.299 124% 0.304 124% 0.291 119% 0.412 158%   0-0.1 NR 0.483 27% 200% 0.531 23% 217% 0.418 32% 170% 0.502 26% 193% 0.7-1   R 0.132 55% 0.122 50% 0.134 54% 0.131 50% 0.1-0.7 UD 0.265 110% 0.296 121% 0.297 121% 0.395 152%   0-0.1 NR 0.483 18% 201% 0.53 24% 217% 0.418 31% 170% 0.505 25% 194% 0.8-1   R 0.088 36% 0.127 52% 0.129 53% 0.125 48% 0.1-0.8 UD 0.273 113% 0.256 105% 0.284 116% 0.373 143%   0-0.1 NR 0.481 20% 200% 0.531 24% 217% 0.42 26% 171% 0.503 24% 193% 0.9-1   R 0.098 41% 0.127 52% 0.11 45% 0.123 47% 0.1-0.9 UD 0.225 93% 0.229 94% 0.265 108% 0.342 132%   0-0.2 NR 0.424 32% 176% 0.535 33% 218% 0.433 42% 177% 0.51 29% 196% 0.3-1   R 0.135 56% 0.178 73% 0.182 74% 0.146 56% 0.2-0.3 UD 0.445 185% 0.385 157% 0.254 104% 0.508 195%   0-0.2 NR 0.425 32% 176% 0.534 33% 218% 0.434 38% 177% 0.509 28% 196% 0.4-1   R 0.134 55% 0.178 73% 0.164 67% 0.145 56% 0.2-0.4 UD 0.419 174% 0.252 103% 0.349 142% 0.454 174%   0-0.2 NR 0.425 32% 176% 0.534 33% 218% 0.434 37% 177% 0.509 28% 195% −10.5 R 0.134 56% 0.174 71% 0.16 65% 0.14 54% 0.2-0.5 UD 0.409 170% 0.242 99% 0.243 99% 0.398 153%   0-0.2 NR 0.424 32% 176% 0.535 30% 219% 0.434 35% 177% 0.51 26% 196% 0.6-1   R 0.136 56% 0.16 65% 0.154 63% 0.132 51% 0.2-0.6 UD 0.353 146% 0.26 106% 0.241 98% 0.357 137%   0-0.2 NR 0.424 31% 176% 0.534 23% 218% 0.433 31% 176% 0.51 26% 196% 0.7-1   R 0.132 55% 0.122 50% 0.134 55% 0.131 50% 0.2-0.7 UD 0.272 113% 0.264 108% 0.255 104% 0.342 131%   0-0.2 NR 0.425 21% 176% 0.533 24% 218% 0.432 30% 176% 0.512 24% 197% 0.8-1   R 0.088 36% 0.127 52% 0.13 53% 0.125 48% 0.2-0.8 UD 0.279 116% 0.228 93% 0.246 100% 0.326 125%   0-0.2 NR 0.423 23% 176% 0.533 24% 218% 0.434 25% 177% 0.51 24% 196% 0.9-1   R 0.098 41% 0.126 52% 0.11 45% 0.123 47% 0.2-0.9 UD 0.218 91% 0.206 84% 0.232 94% 0.298 115%   0-0.3 NR 0.427 31% 177% 0.485 37% 198% 0.416 39% 170% 0.51 28% 196% 0.4-1   R 0.134 55% 0.178 73% 0.164 67% 0.145 56% 0.3-0.4 UD 0.236 98% 0.18 73% 0.394 161% 0.259 99%   0-0.3 NR 0.427 31% 177% 0.485 36% 198% 0.415 39% 169% 0.509 28% 196% 0.5-1   R 0.134 55% 0.175 71% 0.16 65% 0.14 54% 0.3-0.5 UD 0.201 84% 0.189 77% 0.241 98% 0.29 111%   0-0.3 NR 0.427 32% 177% 0.486 33% 198% 0.415 37% 169% 0.51 26% 196% 0.6-1   R 0.136 56% 0.16 65% 0.154 63% 0.132 51% 0.3-0.6 UD 0.101 42% 0.221 90% 0.239 97% 0.29 111%   0-0.3 NR 0.427 31% 177% 0.485 25% 198% 0.415 32% 169% 0.51 26% 196% 0.7-1   R 0.132 55% 0.122 50% 0.134 55% 0.131 50% 0.3-0.7 UD 0.153 63% 0.241 98% 0.255 104% 0.278 107%   0-0.3 NR 0.428 21% 178% 0.485 26% 198% 0.414 31% 169% 0.511 24% 196% 0.8-1   R 0.088 36% 0.127 52% 0.13 53% 0.125 48% 0.3-0.8 UD 0.238 99% 0.206 84% 0.245 100% 0.276 106%   0-0.3 NR 0.427 23% 177% 0.485 26% 198% 0.416 26% 169% 0.51 24% 196% 0.9-1   R 0.098 41% 0.127 52% 0.11 45% 0.123 47% 0.3-0.9 UD 0.179 74% 0.187 76% 0.23 94% 0.253 97%   0-0.3 NR 0.424 32% 176% 0.37 47% 151% 0.412 39% 168% 0.503 28% 193% 0.5-1   R 0.134 56% 0.174 71% 0.16 65% 0.14 54% 0.4-0.5 UD 0 0% 0.21 86% 0.178 72% 0.302 116%   0-0.4 NR 0.425 32% 176% 0.37 43% 151% 0.412 37% 168% 0.504 26% 194% 0.6-1   R 0.136 56% 0.16 65% 0.154 63% 0.132 51% 0.4-0.6 UD 0 0% 0.276 113% 0.189 77% 0.294 113%   0-0.4 NR 0.424 31% 176% 0.369 33% 151% 0.412 33% 168% 0.504 26% 194% 0.7-1   R 0.133 55% 0.122 50% 0.134 55% 0.131 50% 0.4-0.7 UD 0.143 59% 0.276 113% 0.22 90% 0.28 108%   0-0.4 NR 0.425 21% 176% 0.37 34% 151% 0.412 32% 168% 0.505 25% 194% 0.8-1   R 0.088 36% 0.127 52% 0.13 53% 0.125 48% 0.4-0.8 UD 0.238 99% 0.215 88% 0.213 87% 0.278 107%   0-0.4 NR 0.424 23% 176% 0.37 35% 151% 0.413 27% 168% 0.504 24% 194% 0.9-1   R 0.098 41% 0.128 52% 0.11 45% 0.123 47% 0.4-0.9 UD 0.178 74% 0.188 77% 0.205 83% 0.252 97%   0-0.5 NR 0.423 32% 175% 0.345 46% 141% 0.343 45% 140% 0.492 27% 189% 0.6-1   R 0.136 56% 0.16 65% 0.154 63% 0.132 51% 0.5-0.6 UD 0 0% 0.403 165% 0.229 93% 0.289 111%   0-0.5 NR 0.423 31% 175% 0.343 36% 140% 0.342 39% 139% 0.492 27% 189% 0.7-1   R 0.132 55% 0.122 50% 0.134 54% 0.131 50% 0.5-0.7 UD 0.146 61% 0.302 123% 0.288 117% 0.27 104%   0-0.5 NR 0.423 21% 176% 0.344 37% 140% 0.341 38% 139% 0.493 25% 189% 0.8-1   R 0.088 36% 0.127 52% 0.129 53% 0.124 48% 0.5-0.8 UD 0.24 99% 0.216 88% 0.251 102% 0.27 104%   0-0.5 NR 0.422 23% 175% 0.344 37% 140% 0.343 32% 140% 0.492 25% 189% 0.9-1   R 0.098 41% 0.127 52% 0.11 45% 0.123 47% 0.5-0.9 UD 0.179 74% 0.185 76% 0.22 90% 0.242 93%   0-0.6 NR 0.412 32% 171% 0.348 35% 142% 0.333 40% 136% 0.475 28% 182% 0.7-1   R 0.132 55% 0.122 50% 0.133 54% 0.131 50% 0.6-0.7 UD 0.171 71% 0.277 113% 0.337 137% 0.202 77%   0-0.6 NR 0.413 21% 171% 0.349 36% 142% 0.333 39% 136% 0.476 26% 183% 0.8-1   R 3.388 36% 0.127 52% 0.129 53% 0.124 48% 0.6-0.8 UD 0.251 104% 0.193 79% 0.26 106% 0.253 97%   0-0.6 NR 0.412 24% 171% 0.349 37% 143% 0.334 33% 136% 0.475 26% 182% 0.9-1   R 0.098 41% 0.128 52% 0.11 45% 0.123 47% 0.6-0.9 UD 0.185 77% 0.168 69% 0.219 89% 0.217 83%   0-0.7 NR 0.384 23% 159% 0.332 38% 135% 0.333 39% 136% 0.469 26% 180% 0.8-1   R 0.088 36% 0.127 52% 0.129 53% 0.124 48% 0.7-0.8 UD 0.284 118% 0.112 46% 0.172 70% 0.27 104%   0-0.7 NR 0.383 26% 159% 0.332 38% 135% 0.333 33% 136% 0.468 26% 180% 0.9-1   R 0.098 41% 0.127 52% 0.11 45% 0.123 47% 0.7-0.9 UD 0.188 78% 0.12 49% 0.18 73% 0.219 84%   0-0.8 NR 0.362 27% 150% 0.289 44% 118% 0.322 34% 131% 0.457 27% 175% 0.9-1   R 0.098 41% 0.127 52% 0.11 45% 0.123 47% 0.8-0.9 UD 0.043 18% 0.126 51% 0.182 74% 0.16 61%

TABLE 37b Models GM1006, GM1011, GM1012 and GM2004 Model: GM1006 GM1011 GM1012 GM2004 response Risk ARR Risk ARR Risk ARR Risk ARR threshold prediction ARR Ratio Vs. all ARR Ratio Vs. all ARR Ratio Vs. all ARR Ratio Vs. all NA All 0.253 100% 0.256 100% 0.251 100% 0.255 100%   0-0.1 NR 0.597 26% 235% 0.621 26% 242% 0.58 29% 231% 0.511 31% 200% 0.1-1   R 0.157 62% 0.16 63% 0.169 67% 0.157 62%   0-0.2 NR 0.55 26% 217% 0.578 25% 225% 0.528 30% 210% 0.513 27% 201% 0.2-1   R 0.143 56% 0.142 55% 0.157 62% 0.139 54%   0-0.3 NR 0.51 27% 201% 0.549 25% 214% 0.514 27% 205% 0.505 27% 198% 0.3-1   R 0.139 55% 0.135 53% 0.138 55% 0.134 52%   0-0.4 NR 0.491 28% 194% 0.495 28% 193% 0.498 28% 198% 0.493 27% 194% 0.4-1   R 0.137 54% 0.137 53% 0.137 54% 0.131 51%   0-0.5 NR 0.463 30% 183% 0.48 27% 187% 0.479 27% 191% 0.488 27% 191% 0.5-1   R 0.138 55% 0.13 51% 0.129 51% 0.13 51%   0-0.6 NR 0.452 29% 178% 0.451 27% 176% 0.442 28% 176% 0.494 24% 194% 0.6-1   R 0.129 51% 0.12 47% 0.123 49% 0.118 46%   0-0.7 NR 0.424 30% 167% 0.422 29% 165% 0.416 30% 166% 0.484 23% 190% 0.7-1   R 0.126 50% 0.121 47% 0.124 49% 0.11 43%   0-0.8 NR 0.397 32% 157% 0.41 29% 160% 0.386 32% 154% 0.447 25% 175% 0.8-1   R 0.128 50% 0.118 46% 0.125 50% 0.113 44%   0-0.9 NR 0.377 33% 149% 0.381 31% 149% 0.358 33% 143% 0.417 27% 163% 0.9-1   R 0.123 48% 0.119 46% 0.118 47% 0.114 45%   0-0.1 NR 0.597 24% 236% 0.622 23% 242% 0.581 27% 231% 0.512 27% 201% 0.2-1   R 0.143 57% 0.142 55% 0.157 62% 0.139 54% 0.1-0.2 UD 0.348 137% 0.409 160% 0.332 132% 0.517 203%   0-0.1 NR 0.595 23% 235% 0.623 22% 243% 0.584 24% 232% 0.513 26% 201% 0.3-1   R 0.139 55% 0.135 53% 0.138 55% 0.134 52% 0.1-0.3 UD 0.296 117% 0.366 143% 0.376 150% 0.463 181%   0-0.1 NR 0.595 23% 235% 0.624 22% 243% 0.584 23% 233% 0.512 26% 201% 0.4-1   R 0.138 54% 0.136 53% 0.136 54% 0.131 51% 0.1-0.4 UD 0.279 110% 0.282 110% 0.351 140% 0.414 162%   0-0.1 NR 0.595 24% 235% 0.624 21% 243% 0.585 22% 233% 0.513 25% 201% 0.5-1   R 0.14 55% 0.13 51% 0.128 51% 0.13 51% 0.1-0.5 UD 0.241 95% 0.284 111% 0.338 134% 0.392 154%   0-0.1 NR 0.593 22% 234% 0.622 19% 243% 0.584 21% 232% 0.512 23% 201% 0.6-1   R 0.131 52% 0.12 47% 0.123 49% 0.118 46% 0.1-0.6 UD 0.256 101% 0.275 107% 0.301 120% 0.434 170%   0-0.1 NR 0.593 22% 234% 0.621 19% 242% 0.583 21% 232% 0.513 21% 201% 0.7-1   R 0.128 51% 0.121 47% 0.124 49% 0.11 43% 0.1-0.7 UD 0.24 95% 0.249 97% 0.274 109% 0.413 162%   0-0.1 NR 0.594 22% 234% 0.621 19% 242% 0.583 21% 232% 0.512 22% 201% 0.8-1   R 0.13 51% 0.119 46% 0.125 50% 0.113 44% 0.1-0.8 UD 0.218 86% 0.242 95% 0.247 98% 0.326 128%   0-0.1 NR 0.595 21% 235% 0.621 19% 242% 0.582 20% 232% 0.512 22% 201% 0.9-1   R 0.125 49% 0.12 47% 0.118 47% 0.114 45% 0.1-0.9 UD 0.212 84% 0.221 86% 0.231 92% 0.277 108%   0-0.2 NR 0.549 25% 217% 0.579 23% 226% 0.531 26% 211% 0.513 26% 201% 0.3-1   R 0.139 55% 0.135 53% 0.138 55% 0.134 52% 0.2-0.3 UD 0.218 86% 0.289 113% 0.422 168% 0.34 134%   0-0.2 NR 0.549 25% 217% 0.579 23% 226% 0.531 26% 211% 0.513 26% 201% 0.4-1   R 0.138 54% 0.136 53% 0.137 54% 0.131 51% 0.2-0.4 UD 0.211 83% 0.191 74% 0.364 145% 0.297 116%   0-0.2 NR 0.55 25% 217% 0.58 22% 226% 0.531 24% 211% 0.513 25% 201% -10.5 R 0.14 55% 0.13 51% 0.129 51% 0.13 51% 0.2-0.5 UD 0.168 66% 0.216 84% 0.339 135% 0.28 110%   0-0.2 NR 0.548 24% 216% 0.579 21% 226% 0.53 23% 211% 0.513 23% 201% 0.6-1   R 0.131 52% 0.121 47% 0.123 49% 0.118 46% 0.2-0.6 UD 0.211 83% 0.225 88% 0.288 115% 0.379 149%   0-0.2 NR 0.548 23% 216% 0.578 21% 225% 0.53 23% 211% 0.514 21% 201% 0.7-1   R 0.128 50% 0.121 47% 0.124 49% 0.11 43% 0.2-0.7 UD 0.201 79% 0.202 79% 0.256 102% 0.364 143%   0-0.2 NR 0.549 24% 217% 0.578 21% 225% 0.53 24% 211% 0.513 22% 201% 0.8-1   R 0.13 51% 0.119 47% 0.125 50% 0.113 44% 0.2-0.8 UD 0.18 71% 0.198 77% 0.226 90% 0.266 104%   0-0.2 NR 0.549 23% 217% 0.578 21% 225% 0.529 22% 211% 0.513 22% 201% 0.9-1   R 0.125 49% 0.12 47% 0.118 47% 0.115 45% 0.2-0.9 UD 0.181 72% 0.182 71% 0.213 85% 0.221 86%   0-0.3 NR 0.51 27% 201% 0.549 25% 214% 0.514 27% 205% 0.505 26% 198% 0.4-1   R 0.137 54% 0.136 53% 0.137 54% 0.131 51% 0.3-0.4 UD 0.2 79% 0.122 47% 0.207 83% 0.25 98%   0-0.3 NR 0.51 27% 201% 0.549 24% 214% 0.515 25% 205% 0.505 26% 198% 0.5-1   R 0.139 55% 0.13 51% 0.129 51% 0.13 51% 0.3-0.5 UD 0.13 51% 0.184 72% 0.259 103% 0.238 93%   0-0.3 NR 0.509 26% 201% 0.549 22% 214% 0.515 24% 205% 0.505 23% 198% 0.6-1   R 0.13 51% 0.121 47% 0.124 49% 0.118 46% 0.3-0.6 UD 0.208 82% 0.208 81% 0.224 89% 0.396 155%   0-0.3 NR 0.509 25% 201% 0.549 22% 214% 0.515 24% 205% 0.505 22% 198% 0.7-1   R 0.127 50% 0.122 47% 0.124 49% 0.11 43% 0.3-0.7 UD 0.196 77% 0.184 72% 0.196 78% 0.37 145%   0-0.3 NR 0.51 25% 201% 0.549 22% 214% 0.515 24% 205% 0.505 22% 198% 0.8-1   R 0.129 51% 0.12 47% 0.125 50% 0.113 44% 0.3-0.8 UD 0.172 68% 0.182 71% 0.175 70% 0.253 99%   0-0.3 NR 0.51 24% 201% 0.549 22% 214% 0.514 23% 205% 0.505 23% 198% 0.9-1   R 0.124 49% 0.12 47% 0.118 47% 0.115 45% 0.3-0.9 UD 0.175 69% 0.166 65% 0.173 69% 0.206 81%   0-0.3 NR 0.492 28% 194% 0.495 26% 193% 0.498 26% 198% 0.494 26% 194% 0.5-1   R 0.139 55% 0.13 51% 0.129 51% 0.13 51% 0.4-0.5 UD 0.076 30% 0.295 115% 0.288 115% 0.216 85%   0-0.4 NR 0.491 26% 194% 0.494 24% 192% 0.498 25% 198% 0.494 24% 194% 0.6-1   R 0.13 51% 0.121 47% 0.124 49% 0.118 46% 0.4-0.6 UD 0.211 83% 0.264 103% 0.228 91% 0.492 193%   0-0.4 NR 0.491 26% 194% 0.494 25% 193% 0.498 25% 198% 0.494 22% 194% 0.7-1   R 0.127 50% 0.122 47% 0.124 49% 0.11 43% 0.4-0.7 UD 0.195 77% 0.211 82% 0.195 77% 0.409 160%   0-0.4 NR 0.491 26% 194% 0.494 24% 193% 0.498 25% 198% 0.494 23% 194% 0.8-1   R 0.129 51% 0.12 47% 0.125 50% 0.113 44% 0.4-0.8 UD 0.168 66% 0.204 80% 0.171 68% 0.253 99%   0-0.4 NR 0.491 25% 194% 0.495 24% 193% 0.498 24% 198% 0.494 23% 194% 0.9-1   R 0.123 49% 0.121 47% 0.118 47% 0.115 45% 0.4-0.9 UD 0.172 68% 0.178 70% 0.17 68% 0.201 79%   0-0.5 NR 0.462 28% 182% 0.479 25% 187% 0.479 26% 191% 0.486 24% 191% 0.6-1   R 0.129 51% 0.121 47% 0.124 49% 0.118 46% 0.5-0.6 UD 0.326 129% 0.246 96% 0.188 75% 0.656 257%   0-0.5 NR 0.462 27% 182% 0.479 25% 187% 0.479 26% 191% 0.487 23% 191% 0.7-1   R 0.126 50% 0.122 47% 0.124 49% 0.11 43% 0.5-0.7 UD 0.236 93% 0.185 72% 0.158 63% 0.452 177%   0-0.5 NR 0.462 28% 182% 0.479 25% 187% 0.479 26% 191% 0.487 23% 191% 0.8-1   R 0.128 51% 0.119 47% 0.125 50% 0.113 44% 0.5-0.8 UD 0.187 74% 0.182 71% 0.142 57% 0.258 101%   0-0.5 NR 0.462 27% 182% 0.48 25% 187% 0.479 25% 191% 0.488 24% 191% 0.9-1   R 0.123 48% 0.12 47% 0.118 47% 0.115 45% 0.5-0.9 UD 0.186 73% 0.159 62% 0.151 60% 0.2 78%   0-0.6 NR 0.451 28% 178% 0.451 27% 176% 0.442 28% 176% 0.494 22% 194% 0.7-1   R 0.126 50% 0.121 47% 0.124 49% 0.11 43% 0.6-0.7 UD 0.175 69% 0.105 41% 0.112 45% 0.325 128%   0-0.6 NR 0.452 28% 178% 0.451 26% 176% 0.442 28% 176% 0.494 23% 194% 0.8-1   R 0.128 51% 0.119 46% 0.125 50% 0.113 44% 0.6-0.8 UD 0.138 54% 0.13 51% 0.114 45% 0.16 83%   0-0.6 NR 0.452 27% 178% 0.451 27% 176% 0.442 27% 176% 0.494 23% 194% 0.9-1   R 0.123 48% 0.12 47% 0.118 47% 0.115 45% 0.6-0.9 UD 0.155 61% 0.121 47% 0.138 55% 0.133 52%   0-0.7 NR 0.424 30% 167% 0.422 28% 165% 0.416 30% 165% 0.484 23% 190% 0.8-1   R 0.128 50% 0.118 46% 0.125 50% 0.113 44% 0.7-0.8 UD 0.097 38% 0.17 66% 0.115 46% 0.053 21%   0-0.7 NR 0.424 29% 167% 0.422 28% 165% 0.416 28% 166% 0.484 24% 190% 0.9-1   R 0.122 48% 0.119 46% 0.118 47% 0.115 45% 0.7-0.9 UD 0.145 57% 0.129 50% 0.146 58% 0.075 29%   0-0.8 NR 0.398 31% 157% 0.41 29% 160% 0.386 31% 154% 0.447 26% 175% 0.9-1   R 0.122 48% 0.119 46% 0.118 47% 0.115 45% 0.8-0.9 UD 0.181 71% 0.111 43% 0.168 67% 0.093 37%

TABLE 37c Models GM2014, GM2022, GM2027 and 2043 Model: GM2014 GM2022 GM2027 GM2043 response Risk ARR Risk ARR Risk ARR Risk ARR threshold prediction ARR Ratio Vs. all ARR Ratio Vs. all ARR Ratio Vs. all ARR Ratio Vs. all NA All 0.255 100% 0.253 100% 0.253 100% 0.258 100%   0-0.1 NR 0.528 29% 207% 0.551 29% 218% 0.558 28% 221% 0.511 31% 198% 0.1-1   R 0.153 60% 0.162 64% 0.159 63% 0.16 62%   0-0.2 NR 0.517 28% 203% 0.535 28% 211% 0.489 31% 193% 0.501 31% 194% 0.2-1   R 0.143 56% 0.148 58% 0.153 60% 0.153 59%   0-0.3 NR 0.503 26% 198% 0.519 28% 205% 0.47 31% 186% 0.483 30% 187% 0.3-1   R 0.13 51% 0.144 57% 0.145 57% 0.144 56%   0-0.4 NR 0.497 26% 195% 0.498 28% 197% 0.446 32% 176% 0.47 31% 182% 0.4-1   R 0.128 50% 0.138 55% 0.143 57% 0.146 56%   0-0.5 NR 0.482 25% 189% 0.504 23% 199% 0.431 32% 170% 0.472 27% 183% 0.5-1   R 0.122 48% 0.117 46% 0.138 54% 0.128 49%   0-0.6 NR 0.465 26% 183% 0.482 24% 190% 0.425 28% 168% 0.466 27% 180% 0.6-1   R 0.123 48% 0.115 45% 0.121 48% 0.124 48%   0-0.7 NR 0.461 26% 181% 0.442 27% 175% 0.403 30% 159% 0.451 27% 174% 0.7-1   R 0.118 46% 0.121 48% 0.119 47% 0.12 46%   0-0.8 NR 0.443 25% 174% 0.419 28% 165% 0.377 33% 149% 0.423 28% 163% 0.8-1   R 0.112 44% 0.119 47% 0.124 49% 0.12 47%   0-0.9 NR 0.416 26% 163% 0.404 28% 160% 0.357 31% 141% 0.396 30% 153% 0.9-1   R 0.107 42% 0.115 45% 0.111 44% 0.117 45%   0-0.1 NR 0.526 27% 207% 0.552 27% 218% 0.558 27% 221% 0.51 30% 197% 0.2-1   R 0.143 56% 0.148 58% 0.153 60% 0.153 59% 0.1-0.2 UD 0.425 167% 0.432 171% 0.231 91% 0.383 148%   0-0.1 NR 0.526 25% 206% 0.552 26% 218% 0.559 26% 221% 0.509 28% 197% 0.3-1   R 0.13 51% 0.144 57% 0.145 57% 0.144 56% 0.1-0.3 UD 0.408 160% 0.384 152% 0.257 102% 0.347 134%   0-0.1 NR 0.526 25% 207% 0.551 25% 218% 0.559 26% 221% 0.509 29% 197% 0.4-1   R 0.129 51% 0.138 55% 0.143 56% 0.146 57% 0.1-0.4 UD 0.385 151% 0.352 139% 0.24 95% 0.297 115%   0-0.1 NR 0.527 23% 207% 0.552 21% 218% 0.559 25% 221% 0.511 25% 198% 0.5-1   R 0.122 48% 0.117 46% 0.138 54% 0.128 49% 0.1-0.5 UD 0.356 140% 0.408 161% 0.241 95% 0.361 140%   0-0.1 NR 0.529 23% 208% 0.551 21% 218% 0.559 22% 221% 0.511 24% 198% 0.6-1   R 0.123 48% 0.115 45% 0.121 48% 0.124 48% 0.1-0.6 UD 0.315 124% 0.368 146% 0.266 105% 0.353 137%   0-0.1 NR 0.528 23% 208% 0.551 22% 218% 0.559 21% 221% 0.51 24% 197% 0.7-1   R 0.119 47% 0.121 48% 0.119 47% 0.12 46% 0.1-0.7 UD 0.317 125% 0.298 118% 0.248 98% 0.328 127%   0-0.1 NR 0.529 21% 208% 0.552 22% 218% 0.558 22% 221% 0.51 24% 197% 0.8-1   R 0.112 44% 0.12 47% 0.124 49% 0.121 47% 0.1-0.8 UD 0.298 117% 0.272 108% 0.221 87% 0.282 109%   0-0.1 NR 0.529 20% 208% 0.551 21% 218% 0.558 20% 220% 0.51 23% 197% 0.9-1   R 0.108 42% 0.115 46% 0.112 44% 0.118 46% 0.1-0.9 UD 0.268 105% 0.263 104% 0.218 86% 0.253 98%   0-0.2 NR 0.516 25% 203% 0.535 27% 212% 0.489 30% 194% 0.501 29% 194% 0.3-1   R 0.13 51% 0.144 57% 0.145 57% 0.144 56% 0.2-0.3 UD 0.394 155% 0.288 114% 0.303 120% 0.327 126%   0-0.2 NR 0.517 25% 203% 0.535 26% 211% 0.49 29% 194% 0.501 29% 194% 0.4-1   R 0.128 50% 0.139 55% 0.143 56% 0.146 57% 0.2-0.4 UD 0.36 141% 0.284 112% 0.248 98% 0.258 100%   0-0.2 NR 0.517 24% 203% 0.536 22% 212% 0.489 28% 194% 0.502 25% 194% -10.5 R 0.122 48% 0.117 46% 0.138 54% 0.128 49% 0.2-0.5 UD 0.329 129% 0.396 156% 0.248 98% 0.355 137%   0-0.2 NR 0.518 24% 203% 0.534 22% 211% 0.49 25% 194% 0.502 25% 194% 0.6-1   R 0.123 48% 0.115 45% 0.121 48% 0.124 48% 0.2-0.6 UD 0.28 110% 0.344 136% 0.283 112% 0.347 134%   0-0.2 NR 0.518 23% 203% 0.534 23% 211% 0.49 24% 194% 0.502 24% 194% 0.7-1   R 0.119 47% 0.122 48% 0.119 47% 0.12 46% 0.2-0.7 UD 0.287 113% 0.261 103% 0.254 100% 0.318 123%   0-0.2 NR 0.518 22% 204% 0.535 22% 212% 0.489 25% 193% 0.501 24% 194% 0.8-1   R 0.112 44% 0.12 47% 0.124 49% 0.121 47% 0.2-0.8 UD 0.271 106% 0.237 94% 0.218 86% 0.269 104%   0-0.2 NR 0.518 21% 203% 0.535 22% 211% 0.489 23% 193% 0.501 24% 194% 0.9-1   R 0.108 42% 0.116 46% 0.112 44% 0.118 46% 0.2-0.9 UD 0.244 96% 0.23 91% 0.215 85% 0.24 93%   0-0.3 NR 0.503 25% 198% 0.518 27% 205% 0.47 30% 186% 0.483 30% 187% 0.4-1   R 0.128 50% 0.138 55% 0.143 57% 0.146 56% 0.3-0.4 UD 0.221 87% 0.281 111% 0.182 72% 0 0%   0-0.3 NR 0.504 24% 198% 0.519 23% 205% 0.47 29% 186% 0.484 26% 187% 0.5-1   R 0.122 48% 0.117 46% 0.138 54% 0.128 49% 0.3-0.5 UD 0.265 104% 0.43 170% 0.215 85% 0.376 146%   0-0.3 NR 0.504 24% 198% 0.518 22% 205% 0.471 26% 186% 0.484 26% 187% 0.6-1   R 0.123 48% 0.115 45% 0.121 48% 0.124 48% 0.3-0.6 UD 0.207 81% 0.357 141% 0.276 109% 0.358 139%   0-0.3 NR 0.504 23% 198% 0.518 24% 205% 0.47 25% 186% 0.483 25% 187% 0.7-1   R 0.118 47% 0.122 48% 0.119 47% 0.12 46% 0.3-0.7 UD 0.23 90% 0.256 101% 0.241 95% 0.314 121%   0-0.3 NR 0.505 22% 198% 0.519 23% 205% 0.47 27% 186% 0.482 25% 187% 0.8-1   R 0.112 44% 0.12 47% 0.125 49% 0.12 47% 0.3-0.8 UD 0.228 90% 0.23 91% 0.201 80% 0.252 97%   0-0.3 NR 0.504 21% 198% 0.519 22% 205% 0.47 24% 186% 0.483 24% 187% 0.9-1   R 0.107 42% 0.116 46% 0.112 44% 0.117 45% 0.3-0.9 UD 0.208 82% 0.224 89% 0.202 80% 0.222 86%   0-0.3 NR 0.498 24% 195% 0.5 23% 197% 0.446 31% 176% 0.472 27% 183% 0.5-1   R 0.122 48% 0.117 46% 0.138 54% 0.128 49% 0.4-0.5 UD 0.279 110% 0.545 216% 0.248 98% 0.475 184%   0-0.4 NR 0.498 25% 195% 0.498 23% 197% 0.446 27% 177% 0.471 26% 182% 0.6-1   R 0.123 48% 0.115 45% 0.121 48% 0.124 48% 0.4-0.6 UD 0.205 81% 0.392 155% 0.316 125% 0.427 165%   0-0.4 NR 0.498 24% 196% 0.498 24% 197% 0.446 27% 176% 0.471 25% 182% 0.7-1   R 0.118 47% 0.121 48% 0.119 47% 0.12 46% 0.4-0.7 UD 0.232 91% 0.248 98% 0.258 102% 0.353 136%   0-0.4 NR 0.498 22% 196% 0.498 24% 197% 0.446 28% 176% 0.47 26% 182% 0.8-1   R 0.112 44% 0.119 47% 0.125 49% 0.12 47% 0.4-0.8 UD 0.229 90% 0.219 87% 0.204 81% 0.272 105%   0-0.4 NR 0.498 21% 196% 0.498 23% 197% 0.446 25% 176% 0.47 25% 182% 0.9-1   R 0.107 42% 0.115 46% 0.112 44% 0.117 45% 0.4-0.9 UD 0.207 81% 0.214 85% 0.204 81% 0.234 91%   0-0.5 NR 0.482 25% 189% 0.504 23% 199% 0.432 28% 171% 0.472 26% 183% 0.6-1   R 0.122 48% 0.115 46% 0.121 48% 0.124 48% 0.5-0.6 UD 0.1 39% 0.165 65% 0.365 144% 0.297 115%   0-0.5 NR 0.482 24% 190% 0.504 24% 199% 0.431 28% 170% 0.472 25% 183% 0.7-1   R 0.118 46% 0.122 48% 0.119 47% 0.12 46% 0.5-0.7 UD 0.19 74% 0.067 27% 0.261 103% 0.244 94%   0-0.5 NR 0.483 23% 190% 0.504 24% 199% 0.431 29% 170% 0.472 26% 183% 0.8-1   R 0.112 44% 0.12 47% 0.124 49% 0.121 47% 0.5-0.8 UD 0.208 82% 0.101 40% 0.193 76% 0.178 69%   0-0.5 NR 0.483 22% 190% 0.504 23% 199% 0.431 26% 170% 0.472 25% 183% 0.9-1   R 0.107 42% 0.116 46% 0.112 44% 0.118 46% 0.5-0.9 UD 0.19 74% 0.122 48% 0.198 78% 0.167 65%   0-0.6 NR 0.465 25% 183% 0.482 25% 191% 0.425 28% 168% 0.466 26% 180% 0.7-1   R 0.118 46% 0.121 48% 0.119 47% 0.12 46% 0.6-0.7 UD 0.341 134% 0 0% 0.15 59% 0.217 84%   0-0.6 NR 0.465 24% 183% 0.482 25% 190% 0.425 29% 168% 0.466 26% 180% 0.8-1   R 0.112 44% 0.119 47% 0.125 49% 0.121 47% 0.6-0.8 UD 0.253 99% 0.079 31% 0.101 40% 0.153 59%   0-0.6 NR 0.465 23% 183% 0.482 24% 190% 0.425 26% 168% 0.466 25% 180% 0.9-1   R 0.107 42% 0.115 46% 0.112 44% 0.118 46% 0.6-0.9 UD 0.208 82% 0.112 44% 0.149 59% 0.152 59%   0-0.7 NR 0.462 24% 181% 0.442 27% 175% 0.403 31% 159% 0.451 27% 174% 0.8-1   R 0.112 44% 0.119 47% 0.124 49% 0.121 47% 0.7-0.8 UD 0.223 88% 0.148 59% 0.051 20% 0.106 41%   0-0.7 NR 0.461 23% 181% 0.442 26% 175% 0.403 28% 159% 0.451 26% 174% 0.9-1   R 0.107 42% 0.115 45% 0.112 44% 0.118 46% 0.7-0.9 UD 0.19 74% 0.167 66% 0.149 59% 0.132 51%   0-0.8 NR 0.443 24% 174% 0.418 28% 165% 0.377 30% 149% 0.423 28% 163% 0.9-1   R 0.107 42% 0.115 45% 0.112 44% 0.117 45% 0.8-0.9 UD 0.165 65% 0.192 76% 0.205 81% 0.15 58%

TABLE 37d Models GM2068, GM2090, GM2094 and GM2277 Model: GM2068 GM2090 GM2094 GM2277 response Risk ARR Risk ARR Risk ARR Risk ARR threshold prediction ARR Ratio Vs. all ARR Ratio Vs. all ARR Ratio Vs. all ARR Ratio Vs. all NA All 0.256 100% 0.254 100% 0.251 100% 0.258 100%   0-0.1 NR 0.486 34% 190% 0.514 33% 203% 0.537 32% 214% 0.487 34% 189% 0.1-1   R 0.165 64% 0.172 68% 0.17 68% 0.164 64%   0-0.2 NR 0.489 32% 191% 0.516 29% 204% 0.496 32% 197% 0.485 30% 188% 0.2-1   R 0.155 60% 0.15 59% 0.157 63% 0.147 57%   0-0.3 NR 0.474 31% 185% 0.516 25% 203% 0.479 30% 191% 0.465 31% 180% 0.3-1   R 0.148 58% 0.13 51% 0.144 57% 0.144 56%   0-0.4 NR 0.461 31% 180% 0.482 27% 190% 0.469 30% 187% 0.443 33% 172% 0.4-1   R 0.144 56% 0.13 51% 0.139 56% 0.145 56%   0-0.5 NR 0.447 32% 174% 0.461 29% 182% 0.45 31% 179% 0.437 32% 169% 0.5-1   R 0.143 56% 0.132 52% 0.14 56% 0.138 53%   0-0.6 NR 0.454 29% 177% 0.441 29% 174% 0.439 28% 175% 0.427 31% 166% 0.6-1   R 0.133 52% 0.126 50% 0.125 50% 0.132 51%   0-0.7 NR 0.447 29% 174% 0.422 30% 166% 0.421 30% 168% 0.419 31% 162% 0.7-1   R 0.128 50% 0.127 50% 0.127 50% 0.129 50%   0-0.8 NR 0.433 29% 169% 0.398 31% 157% 0.397 33% 158% 0.401 33% 155% 0.8-1   R 0.124 48% 0.122 48% 0.13 52% 0.131 51%   0-0.9 NR 0.415 30% 162% 0.381 28% 150% 0.361 38% 144% 0.381 32% 148% 0.9-1   R 0.126 49% 0.106 42% 0.136 54% 0.122 47%   0-0.1 NR 0.484 32% 189% 0.516 29% 204% 0.534 30% 213% 0.485 30% 188% 0.2-1   R 0.155 60% 0.15 59% 0.158 63% 0.147 57% 0.1-0.2 UD 0.563 219% 0.515 203% 0.335 133% 0.483 187%   0-0.1 NR 0.486 30% 190% 0.519 25% 205% 0.532 27% 212% 0.485 30% 188% 0.3-1   R 0.148 58% 0.13 51% 0.145 58% 0.144 56% 0.1-0.3 UD 0.402 157% 0.506 200% 0.353 140% 0.375 145%   0-0.1 NR 0.487 30% 190% 0.518 25% 204% 0.532 26% 212% 0.486 30% 188% 0.4-1   R 0.144 56% 0.13 51% 0.14 56% 0.146 56% 0.1-0.4 UD 0.355 138% 0.407 161% 0.342 136% 0.3 116%   0-0.1 NR 0.487 29% 190% 0.519 25% 205% 0.532 27% 212% 0.485 28% 188% 0.5-1   R 0.143 56% 0.132 52% 0.141 56% 0.138 54% 0.1-0.5 UD 0.318 124% 0.359 142% 0.309 123% 0.307 119%   0-0.1 NR 0.487 27% 190% 0.518 24% 204% 0.533 24% 212% 0.487 27% 189% 0.6-1   R 0.133 52% 0.126 50% 0.126 50% 0.132 51% 0.1-0.6 UD 0.361 141% 0.332 131% 0.319 127% 0.301 117%   0-0.1 NR 0.488 26% 190% 0.517 25% 204% 0.534 24% 213% 0.486 27% 188% 0.7-1   R 0.128 50% 0.128 50% 0.128 51% 0.129 50% 0.1-0.7 UD 0.348 136% 0.303 120% 0.293 117% 0.291 113%   0-0.1 NR 0.487 25% 190% 0.517 24% 204% 0.535 25% 213% 0.486 27% 188% 0.8-1   R 0.124 48% 0.122 48% 0.132 52% 0.131 51% 0.1-0.8 UD 0.324 126% 0.279 110% 0.262 104% 0.263 102%   0-0.1 NR 0.488 26% 190% 0.517 21% 204% 0.535 26% 213% 0.486 25% 188% 0.9-1   R 0.126 49% 0.106 42% 0.138 55% 0.122 47% 0.1-0.9 UD 0.289 113% 0.274 108% 0.224 89% 0.25 97%   0-0.2 NR 0.489 30% 191% 0.519 25% 205% 0.495 29% 197% 0.484 30% 188% 0.3-1   R 0.148 58% 0.13 51% 0.144 57% 0.144 56% 0.2-0.3 UD 0.311 121% 0.492 194% 0.374 149% 0.226 88%   0-0.2 NR 0.49 29% 191% 0.518 25% 204% 0.495 28% 197% 0.484 30% 188% 0.4-1   R 0.144 56% 0.13 51% 0.14 56% 0.146 57% 0.2-0.4 UD 0.287 112% 0.336 132% 0.348 139% 0.163 63%   0-0.2 NR 0.49 29% 191% 0.519 25% 205% 0.495 28% 197% 0.484 29% 188% -10.5 R 0.143 56% 0.132 52% 0.14 56% 0.139 54% 0.2-0.5 UD 0.26 102% 0.279 110% 0.292 116% 0.219 85%   0-0.2 NR 0.49 27% 191% 0.518 24% 205% 0.495 25% 197% 0.485 27% 188% 0.6-1   R 0.133 52% 0.126 50% 0.126 50% 0.132 51% 0.2-0.6 UD 0.319 124% 0.264 104% 0.311 124% 0.236 91%   0-0.2 NR 0.49 26% 191% 0.518 25% 204% 0.495 26% 197% 0.484 27% 188% 0.7-1   R 0.128 50% 0.128 50% 0.127 51% 0.129 50% 0.2-0.7 UD 0.312 122% 0.237 94% 0.278 111% 0.233 90%   0-0.2 NR 0.49 25% 191% 0.518 24% 204% 0.495 26% 197% 0.484 27% 188% 0.8-1   R 0.124 48% 0.122 48% 0.131 52% 0.131 51% 0.2-0.8 UD 0.292 114% 0.224 88% 0.239 95% 0.207 80%   0-0.2 NR 0.49 26% 191% 0.518 20% 204% 0.495 28% 197% 0.484 25% 188% 0.9-1   R 0.126 49% 0.106 42% 0.138 55% 0.122 47% 0.2-0.9 UD 0.259 101% 0.231 91% 0.199 79% 0.208 81%   0-0.3 NR 0.474 30% 185% 0.516 25% 203% 0.479 29% 191% 0.465 31% 180% 0.4-1   R 0.144 56% 0.13 51% 0.139 56% 0.146 56% 0.3-0.4 UD 0.254 99% 0.123 49% 0.293 117% 0.088 34%   0-0.3 NR 0.474 30% 185% 0.515 26% 203% 0.479 29% 191% 0.465 30% 180% 0.5-1   R 0.143 56% 0.132 52% 0.14 56% 0.138 54% 0.3-0.5 UD 0.224 87% 0.108 43% 0.203 81% 0.215 83%   0-0.3 NR 0.475 28% 185% 0.516 25% 203% 0.479 26% 191% 0.465 28% 180% 0.6-1   R 0.133 52% 0.127 50% 0.126 50% 0.132 51% 0.3-0.6 UD 0.323 126% 0.154 61% 0.279 111% 0.238 92%   0-0.3 NR 0.475 27% 185% 0.516 25% 203% 0.479 27% 191% 0.465 28% 180% 0.7-1   R 0.128 50% 0.128 51% 0.127 51% 0.129 50% 0.3-0.7 UD 0.312 121% 0.139 55% 0.239 95% 0.234 91%   0-0.3 NR 0.475 26% 185% 0.516 24% 204% 0.479 27% 191% 0.465 28% 180% 0.8-1   R 0.124 48% 0.123 48% 0.131 52% 0.131 51% 0.3-0.8 UD 0.286 112% 0.154 61% 0.198 79% 0.202 78%   0-0.3 NR 0.475 27% 185% 0.516 21% 204% 0.479 29% 191% 0.465 26% 180% 0.9-1   R 0.126 49% 0.106 42% 0.137 55% 0.122 47% 0.3-0.9 UD 0.246 96% 0.182 72% 0.161 64% 0.205 79%   0-0.3 NR 0.461 31% 180% 0.482 27% 190% 0.469 30% 187% 0.443 31% 172% 0.5-1   R 0.143 56% 0.132 52% 0.14 56% 0.138 53% 0.4-0.5 UD 0.191 74% 0.086 34% 0.106 42% 0.332 129%   0-0.4 NR 0.461 29% 180% 0.483 26% 190% 0.469 27% 187% 0.444 30% 172% 0.6-1   R 0.133 52% 0.126 50% 0.126 50% 0.131 51% 0.4-0.6 UD 0.373 146% 0.17 67% 0.275 109% 0.301 117%   0-0.4 NR 0.462 28% 180% 0.482 27% 190% 0.469 27% 187% 0.444 29% 172% 0.7-1   R 0.128 50% 0.128 51% 0.127 51% 0.129 50% 0.4-0.7 UD 0.337 131% 0.145 57% 0.227 90% 0.279 108%   0-0.4 NR 0.462 27% 180% 0.483 25% 190% 0.469 28% 187% 0.443 30% 172% 0.8-1   R 0.124 48% 0.123 48% 0.131 52% 0.131 51% 0.4-0.8 UD 0.296 115% 0.161 64% 0.182 72% 0.228 88%   0-0.4 NR 0.462 27% 180% 0.483 22% 190% 0.469 29% 187% 0.443 28% 172% 0.9-1   R 0.126 49% 0.106 42% 0.137 55% 0.122 47% 0.4-0.9 UD 0.244 95% 0.191 75% 0.146 58% 0.221 86%   0-0.5 NR 0.447 30% 174% 0.461 28% 182% 0.45 28% 179% 0.437 30% 169% 0.6-1   R 0.133 52% 0.127 50% 0.125 50% 0.131 51% 0.5-0.6 UD 0.71 277% 0.224 88% 0.343 137% 0.275 106%   0-0.5 NR 0.448 29% 175% 0.461 28% 182% 0.45 28% 179% 0.437 30% 169% 0.7-1   R 0.128 50% 0.128 51% 0.127 50% 0.129 50% 0.5-0.7 UD 0.431 168% 0.168 66% 0.259 103% 0.252 98%   0-0.5 NR 0.448 28% 175% 0.462 27% 182% 0.45 29% 179% 0.437 30% 169% 0.8-1   R 0.124 48% 0.123 48% 0.13 52% 0.131 51% 0.5-0.8 UD 0.332 129% 0.177 70% 0.195 78% 0.194 75%   0-0.5 NR 0.448 28% 175% 0.462 23% 182% 0.45 30% 179% 0.436 28% 169% 0.9-1   R 0.126 49% 0.106 42% 0.137 55% 0.122 47% 0.5-0.9 UD 0.257 100% 0.204 81% 0.15 60% 0.2 78%   0-0.6 NR 0.455 28% 177% 0.441 29% 174% 0.439 29% 175% 0.427 30% 166% 0.7-1   R 0.128 50% 0.128 50% 0.127 51% 0.129 50% 0.6-0.7 UD 0.28 109% 0.085 33% 0.088 35% 0.216 84%   0-0.6 NR 0.455 27% 177% 0.441 28% 174% 0.439 30% 175% 0.427 31% 166% 0.8-1   R 0.124 48% 0.122 48% 0.131 52% 0.131 51% 0.6-0.8 UD 0.244 95% 0.154 61% 0.072 29% 0.139 54%   0-0.6 NR 0.455 28% 177% 0.441 24% 174% 0.439 31% 175% 0.427 29% 166% 0.9-1   R 0.126 49% 0.106 42% 0.137 55% 0.122 47% 0.6-0.9 UD 0.188 73% 0.199 78% 0.071 28% 0.179 69%   0-0.7 NR 0.447 28% 174% 0.422 29% 166% 0.421 31% 168% 0.419 31% 162% 0.8-1   R 0.124 48% 0.122 48% 0.13 52% 0.131 51% 0.7-0.8 UD 0.217 84% 0.184 72% 0.061 24% 0.082 32%   0-0.7 NR 0.447 28% 174% 0.422 25% 167% 0.422 32% 168% 0.419 29% 162% 0.9-1   R 0.126 49% 0.105 42% 0.137 55% 0.122 47% 0.7-0.9 UD 0.151 59% 0.221 87% 0.067 26% 0.171 66%   0-0.8 NR 0.433 29% 169% 0.398 27% 157% 0.397 35% 158% 0.401 30% 155% 0.9-1   R 0.126 49% 0.106 42% 0.137 55% 0.122 47% 0.8-0.9 UD 0.079 31% 0.253 100% 0.069 28% 0.208 81%

TABLE 37e Models GM2338, GM3102, GM3150 and GM3332 Model: GM2338 GM3102 GM3150 GM3332 response Risk ARR Risk ARR Risk ARR Risk ARR threshold prediction ARR Ratio Vs. all ARR Ratio Vs. all ARR Ratio Vs. all ARR Ratio Vs. all NA All 0.251 100% 0.263 100% 0.26 100% 0.262 100%   0-0.1 NR 0.662 25% 264% 0.605 28% 230% 0.584 28% 225% 0.612 30% 234% 0.1-1   R 0.163 65% 0.167 63% 0.163 63% 0.183 70%   0-0.2 NR 0.616 25% 246% 0.588 25% 224% 0.512 32% 197% 0.523 32% 200% 0.2-1   R 0.155 62% 0.146 55% 0.162 62% 0.168 64%   0-0.3 NR 0.537 29% 214% 0.564 24% 215% 0.503 30% 194% 0.535 26% 204% 0.3-1   R 0.156 62% 0.136 52% 0.152 59% 0.14 54%   0-0.4 NR 0.488 32% 195% 0.531 26% 202% 0.474 31% 182% 0.51 28% 195% 0.4-1   R 0.154 61% 0.136 52% 0.149 57% 0.141 54%   0-0.5 NR 0.467 33% 186% 0.506 26% 193% 0.45 32% 173% 0.502 26% 192% 0.5-1   R 0.152 61% 0.131 50% 0.146 56% 0.13 50%   0-0.6 NR 0.436 34% 174% 0.483 28% 184% 0.426 34% 164% 0.486 25% 186% 0.6-1   R 0.15 60% 0.135 51% 0.143 55% 0.123 47%   0-0.7 NR 0.439 31% 175% 0.457 28% 174% 0.432 28% 166% 0.461 26% 176% 0.7-1   R 0.136 54% 0.128 49% 0.122 47% 0.122 47%   0-0.8 NR 0.417 32% 166% 0.432 29% 164% 0.4 30% 154% 0.446 26% 170% 0.8-1   R 0.134 53% 0.124 47% 0.119 46% 0.117 45%   0-0.9 NR 0.402 29% 160% 0.384 34% 146% 0.362 35% 139% 0.41 28% 156% 0.9-1   R 0.117 47% 0.13 49% 0.127 49% 0.115 44%   0-0.1 NR 0.661 24% 264% 0.611 24% 233% 0.584 28% 225% 0.587 29% 224% 0.2-1   R 0.156 62% 0.145 55% 0.162 63% 0.169 64% 0.1-0.2 UD 0.355 142% 0.479 182% 0.166 64% 0.281 107%   0-0.1 NR 0.662 24% 264% 0.609 22% 232% 0.583 26% 225% 0.583 24% 223% 0.3-1   R 0.157 63% 0.136 52% 0.153 59% 0.141 54% 0.1-0.3 UD 0.229 91% 0.436 166% 0.252 97% 0.431 165%   0-0.1 NR 0.663 23% 264% 0.609 22% 232% 0.584 26% 225% 0.581 24% 222% 0.4-1   R 0.154 62% 0.136 52% 0.15 58% 0.141 54% 0.1-0.4 UD 0.219 87% 0.362 138% 0.239 92% 0.383 146%   0-0.1 NR 0.663 23% 265% 0.605 22% 231% 0.584 25% 225% 0.578 23% 221% 0.5-1   R 0.152 61% 0.132 50% 0.148 57% 0.131 50% 0.1-0.5 UD 0.217 87% 0.338 129% 0.23 89% 0.39 149%   0-0.1 NR 0.664 23% 265% 0.607 22% 231% 0.584 25% 225% 0.577 21% 220% 0.6-1   R 0.15 60% 0.135 51% 0.144 55% 0.124 47% 0.1-0.6 UD 0.21 84% 0.299 114% 0.223 86% 0.373 142%   0-0.1 NR 0.665 20% 265% 0.609 21% 232% 0.584 21% 225% 0.578 21% 221% 0.7-1   R 0.136 54% 0.128 49% 0.123 47% 0.123 47% 0.1-0.7 UD 0.245 98% 0.283 108% 0.267 103% 0.337 129%   0-0.1 NR 0.664 20% 265% 0.607 21% 231% 0.583 21% 225% 0.579 21% 221% 0.8-1   R 0.134 54% 0.125 48% 0.12 46% 0.119 45% 0.1-0.8 UD 0.234 93% 0.264 101% 0.242 93% 0.323 123%   0-0.1 NR 0.665 18% 265% 0.606 22% 231% 0.583 22% 225% 0.581 20% 222% 0.9-1   R 0.117 47% 0.131 50% 0.129 50% 0.117 45% 0.1-0.9 UD 0.246 98% 0.222 85% 0.208 80% 0.284 108%   0-0.2 NR 0.616 25% 246% 0.587 23% 223% 0.51 30% 196% 0.516 27% 197% 0.3-1   R 0.156 62% 0.137 52% 0.152 59% 0.14 54% 0.2-0.3 UD 0.134 54% 0.363 138% 0.43 166% 0.65 248%   0-0.2 NR 0.616 25% 246% 0.588 23% 224% 0.512 29% 197% 0.515 27% 197% 0.4-1   R 0.154 61% 0.136 52% 0.149 58% 0.141 54% 0.2-0.4 UD 0.169 68% 0.258 98% 0.296 114% 0.487 186%   0-0.2 NR 0.616 25% 246% 0.586 23% 223% 0.511 29% 197% 0.512 25% 196% -10.5 R 0.152 60% 0.132 50% 0.147 57% 0.13 50% 0.2-0.5 UD 0.178 71% 0.253 96% 0.263 101% 0.471 180%   0-0.2 NR 0.617 24% 246% 0.587 23% 224% 0.512 28% 197% 0.512 24% 196% 0.6-1   R 0.15 60% 0.136 52% 0.144 55% 0.123 47% 0.2-0.6 UD 0.179 71% 0.208 79% 0.243 94% 0.424 162%   0-0.2 NR 0.618 22% 247% 0.588 22% 224% 0.512 24% 197% 0.514 24% 196% 0.7-1   R 0.136 54% 0.129 49% 0.122 47% 0.123 47% 0.2-0.7 UD 0.224 89% 0.215 82% 0.295 114% 0.362 138%   0-0.2 NR 0.618 22% 246% 0.588 21% 224% 0.511 23% 197% 0.516 23% 197% 0.8-1   R 0.134 53% 0.126 48% 0.12 46% 0.118 45% 0.2-0.8 UD 0.215 86% 0.205 78% 0.258 99% 0.338 129%   0-0.2 NR 0.619 19% 247% 0.588 22% 224% 0.511 25% 197% 0.518 23% 198% 0.9-1   R 0.117 47% 0.132 50% 0.128 49% 0.117 45% 0.2-0.9 UD 0.232 92% 0.171 65% 0.214 83% 0.285 109%   0-0.3 NR 0.537 28% 214% 0.564 24% 215% 0.504 30% 194% 0.535 26% 204% 0.4-1   R 0.153 61% 0.136 52% 0.149 57% 0.141 54% 0.3-0.4 UD 0.199 80% 0.148 56% 0.212 82% 0.114 44%   0-0.3 NR 0.538 28% 215% 0.564 23% 215% 0.503 29% 194% 0.532 25% 203% 0.5-1   R 0.151 60% 0.132 50% 0.147 56% 0.131 50% 0.3-0.5 UD 0.201 80% 0.194 74% 0.205 79% 0.293 112%   0-0.3 NR 0.538 28% 215% 0.564 24% 215% 0.504 28% 194% 0.531 23% 203% 0.6-1   R 0.15 60% 0.135 52% 0.143 55% 0.124 47% 0.3-0.6 UD 0.194 77% 0.145 55% 0.202 78% 0.291 111%   0-0.3 NR 0.539 25% 215% 0.565 23% 215% 0.504 24% 194% 0.532 23% 203% 0.7-1   R 0.135 54% 0.128 49% 0.122 47% 0.123 47% 0.3-0.7 UD 0.25 100% 0.178 68% 0.272 105% 0.244 93%   0-0.3 NR 0.539 25% 215% 0.564 22% 215% 0.503 24% 194% 0.532 22% 203% 0.8-1   R 0.134 53% 0.125 48% 0.12 46% 0.119 45% 0.3-0.8 UD 0.233 93% 0.175 67% 0.237 91% 0.239 91%   0-0.3 NR 0.54 22% 215% 0.564 23% 215% 0.503 25% 194% 0.533 22% 204% 0.9-1   R 0.117 46% 0.131 50% 0.128 49% 0.117 45% 0.3-0.9 UD 0.248 99% 0.147 56% 0.194 75% 0.206 79%   0-0.3 NR 0.489 31% 195% 0.529 25% 202% 0.474 31% 182% 0.508 26% 194% 0.5-1   R 0.152 61% 0.131 50% 0.147 57% 0.13 50% 0.4-0.5 UD 0.204 81% 0.243 93% 0.198 76% 0.426 163%   0-0.4 NR 0.489 31% 195% 0.531 25% 202% 0.474 30% 182% 0.507 24% 194% 0.6-1   R 0.15 60% 0.135 51% 0.143 55% 0.123 47% 0.4-0.6 UD 0.191 76% 0.142 54% 0.197 76% 0.351 134%   0-0.4 NR 0.49 28% 196% 0.531 24% 202% 0.473 26% 182% 0.508 24% 194% 0.7-1   R 0.136 54% 0.128 49% 0.122 47% 0.123 47% 0.4-0.7 UD 0.274 109% 0.186 71% 0.295 113% 0.272 104%   0-0.4 NR 0.49 27% 195% 0.53 24% 202% 0.473 25% 182% 0.509 23% 194% 0.8-1   R 0.134 53% 0.125 48% 0.12 46% 0.118 45% 0.4-0.8 UD 0.245 98% 0.18 69% 0.243 94% 0.258 99%   0-0.4 NR 0.49 24% 196% 0.53 25% 202% 0.473 27% 182% 0.509 23% 194% 0.9-1   R 0.117 47% 0.131 50% 0.128 49% 0.116 44% 0.4-0.9 UD 0.26 104% 0.146 56% 0.192 74% 0.215 82%   0-0.5 NR 0.467 32% 186% 0.504 27% 192% 0.45 32% 173% 0.501 25% 192% 0.6-1   R 0.15 60% 0.134 51% 0.143 55% 0.123 47% 0.5-0.6 UD 0.184 73% 0 0% 0.195 75% 0.287 110%   0-0.5 NR 0.468 29% 187% 0.506 25% 193% 0.45 27% 173% 0.502 24% 192% 0.7-1   R 0.136 54% 0.127 49% 0.122 47% 0.122 47% 0.5-0.7 UD 0.302 120% 0.161 61% 0.336 129% 0.209 80%   0-0.5 NR 0.467 29% 186% 0.506 25% 193% 0.45 26% 173% 0.502 24% 192% 0.8-1   R 0.134 54% 0.125 47% 0.119 46% 0.118 45% 0.5-0.8 UD 0.256 102% 0.164 62% 0.254 98% 0.212 81%   0-0.5 NR 0.468 25% 187% 0.506 26% 193% 0.45 28% 173% 0.502 23% 192% 0.9-1   R 0.117 47% 0.131 50% 0.128 49% 0.116 44% 0.5-0.9 UD 0.27 108% 0.131 50% 0.19 73% 0.18 69%   0-0.6 NR 0.436 31% 174% 0.484 26% 184% 0.426 29% 164% 0.485 25% 185% 0.7-1   R 0.136 54% 0.128 49% 0.122 47% 0.122 47% 0.6-0.7 UD 0.474 189% 0.227 86% 0.519 200% 0.135 52%   0-0.6 NR 0.436 31% 174% 0.483 26% 184% 0.425 28% 164% 0.485 24% 185% 0.8-1   R 0.134 54% 0.125 48% 0.119 46% 0.117 45% 0.6-0.8 UD 0.303 121% 0.2 76% 0.282 108% 0.174 67%   0-0.6 NR 0.437 27% 174% 0.483 27% 184% 0.426 30% 164% 0.505 24% 193% 0.9-1   R 0.117 47% 0.131 50% 0.127 49% 0.119 45% 0.6-0.9 UD 0.299 119% 0.146 56% 0.189 73% 0.172 66%   0-0.7 NR 0.439 31% 175% 0.457 27% 174% 0.432 28% 166% 0.461 25% 176% 0.8-1   R 0.134 54% 0.125 48% 0.119 46% 0.117 45% 0.7-0.8 UD 0.164 65% 0.168 64% 0.147 57% 0.215 82%   0-0.7 NR 0.44 27% 175% 0.457 29% 174% 0.432 29% 166% 0.461 25% 176% 0.9-1   R 0.117 47% 0.131 50% 0.127 49% 0.115 44% 0.7-0.9 UD 0.246 98% 0.114 43% 0.102 39% 0.16 61%   0-0.8 NR 0.417 28% 166% 0.431 30% 164% 0.401 32% 154% 0.446 26% 170% 0.9-1   R 0.117 47% 0.13 50% 0.127 49% 0.115 44% 0.8-0.9 UD 0.294 117% 0.085 33% 0.063 24% 0.134 51%

DISCUSSION

Using GWAS, we have found SNPs having a predictive ability of GA response, which are presented in tables 1-3 or table 16. We have also created predictive models which predict with high accuracy the response to GA based on a certain set of SNPs from tables 1-3 or table 16. Other models can be created which use one or more SNPs from tables 1-3 or table 16 or combinations of one or more SNPs indicated in tables 1-3 or table 16 with clinical variables described in the application or others which can be contemplated by the person skilled in the art, in order to predict the response to GA. In addition, kits based on SNPs or models of the invention may be used in order to predict whether a patient is a responder or a non-responder to GA. Predicting whether a subject afflicted with multiple sclerosis or a single clinical attack consistent with multiple sclerosis is a responder to GA based on the determination of the patient's genotype at one or more SNP from table 1-3 or table 16 or a combination of SNPs indicated in tables 1-3 with clinical variables should assist in planning an effective treatment for patients afflicted with multiple sclerosis or a single clinical attack consistent with multiple sclerosis.

REFERENCES

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What is claimed is:
 1. A method for treating a human subject afflicted with multiple sclerosis or a single clinical attack consistent with multiple sclerosis with a pharmaceutical composition comprising glatiramer acetate and a pharmaceutically acceptable carrier, comprising the steps of: i. determining a genotype of the subject at the single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) rs3135391, ii. identifying the subject as a predicted responder to glatiramer acetate if the genotype is GG at rs3135391; and iii. administering the pharmaceutical composition comprising glatiramer acetate and a pharmaceutically acceptable carrier to the subject only if the subject is identified as a predicted responder to glatiramer acetate.
 2. The method of claim 1, wherein administering the pharmaceutical composition comprising glatiramer acetate and a pharmaceutically acceptable carrier comprises administering to the human subject three subcutaneous injections of the pharmaceutical composition over a period of seven days with at least one day between every subcutaneous injection.
 3. The method of claim 2, wherein the pharmaceutical composition is a unit dose of a 1 ml aqueous solution comprising 40 mg of glatiramer acetate.
 4. The method of claim 1, wherein the pharmaceutical composition is a unit dose of a 1 ml aqueous solution comprising 20 mg of glatiramer acetate.
 5. The method of claim 1, wherein the pharmaceutical composition is a unit dose of a 0.5 ml aqueous solution comprising 20 mg of glatiramer acetate.
 6. The method of claim 1, wherein the pharmaceutical composition comprising glatiramer acetate and a pharmaceutically acceptable carrier is administered as monotherapy.
 7. The method of claim 1, wherein the pharmaceutical composition comprising glatiramer acetate and a pharmaceutically acceptable carrier is administered in combination with at least one other multiple sclerosis drug.
 8. The method of claim 1, wherein the human subject is a naive patient.
 9. The method of claim 1, wherein the human subject has been previously administered glatiramer acetate.
 10. The method of claim 1, wherein the human subject has been previously administered a multiple sclerosis drug other than glatiramer acetate.
 11. The method of claim 1, wherein the genotype of the subject at said one or more SNPs is obtained indirectly by determining the genotype of the subject at a SNP that is in linkage disequilibrium with said one or more SNPs.
 12. The method of claim 1, wherein step i comprises determining a genotype of the subject at two or more SNPS, wherein the two SNPs are rs3135391 and rs12639443.
 13. The method of claim 1, wherein step i comprises determining a genotype of the subject at two or more SNPs, wherein the two SNPs are rs3135391 and rs17087180.
 14. The method of claim 1, wherein step i comprises determining a genotype of the subject at two or more SNPs, wherein the two SNPs are rs3135391 and rs4344916.
 15. The method of claim 1, wherein step i comprises determining a genotype of the subject at two or more SNPs, wherein the two SNPs are rs3135391 and rs9508834.
 16. A method of identifying a subject as a predicted responder to glatiramer acetate, comprising the steps of: (i) determining using a probe or primer a genotype of the subject at the single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) rs3135391; and (ii) identifying the subject as a predicted responder to glatiramer acetate if the genotype is GG at rs3135391, thereby identifying the subject as a predicted responder to glatiramer acetate.
 17. The method of claim 16, wherein step i comprises determining a genotype of the subject at two or more SNPS, wherein the two SNPs are rs3135391 and rs12639443.
 18. The method of claim 16, wherein step i comprises determining a genotype of the subject at two or more SNPs, wherein the two SNPs are rs3135391 and rs17087180.
 19. The method of claim 16, wherein step i comprises determining a genotype of the subject at two or more SNPs, wherein the two SNPs are rs3135391 and rs4344916.
 20. The method of claim 16, wherein step i comprises determining a genotype of the subject at two or more SNPs, wherein the two SNPs are rs3135391 and rs9508834. 